[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

The breakdown from the SE starts earlier on this run.....all over by Friday morning for our contingent. 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Taking the past 3 12z runs from ECM for March 1st you can see how far north the real cold air has shifted it has gone from hitting northern France to pretty much missing them

21st

22nd

Today

As per GFS, if it follows this trend its over for Southern England after 4 days.

IIRC this is how the 1991 event ended for us in the SE. Promises of Blizzards on the BBC and in the media ...it turned to rain after an hour and melted our laying 15cm in 12 HOURS.   

We need this to correct South ASAP....not worth the risk imo.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, snowblind said:

BBC at it again. Only snow flurries according to their Sunday to Tuesday outlook. More emphasis on sunshine and no mention of possible significant accumulations, unlike the metoffice outlook for the same period.

BBC are a political mouthpiece above all else. Not interested in weather unless it wins votes.

Not worth the licence fee ( TAX )   

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Its all over for the South by next Friday if the GFS OP verifies.  Fingers crossed its a rogue run. 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

Just now, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

or rain.

 

16 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

If that low moves up like it is on GFS . Wow there is gonna be some snow . 

The GFS Low if it verifies WILL cause a thaw and Snow to Rain event in the SE. Lets hope its just the progressive nature of GFS to breakdown and revert to norm.

Still worth keeping an eye on in later runs though.     

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

24 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Wife reporting snow grains in Leigh  On Sea already

I remember both 1987 & 1991 events started with Snow Grains. Forecasts were saying Dry but the grains became Flurries within a few hours. the event started 24 -36 hours before the forecasted start time both times IIrc. 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

26 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

BBC Weather will not commit themselves to snow amounts and where it will actually fall until much closer to the event - we should have a much better idea by Sundays Countryfile Forecast.

Agree. But given the almost unanimous agreement of abnormal cold and snow an early headline advisory ( heads up ) would appear sensible to those planning long distance travel over the weekend.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Mine says 2*c for Monday with a steady breeze from the NE/E 

Hopefully this will improve tomorrow.  Heres a good link for next week ..............http://www.myweather2.com/synop/player.aspx?synop=2

Run it through for latest forecast precipitation. 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Kent Blizzard said:

The forecast apps or the TV forecast Bill?

Both run from relatively "stale" data... which translates generally to 18-24 hours behind current model runs. So expect both to start reporting lower temps and maybe snow flurries from tomorrow.   

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

9 hours ago, Shunter said:

And now Sunday. The “epic” charts are always 8-9 days away. Exactly why it is called Fantasy Island.

and now according to 12z GFS Op the SE gets a 3 day Freeze followed by a mudfest as warm air pushes north from the SW. 

 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

15 hours ago, Shunter said:

and quite right too..........BBC Snowwatch euphoria rules in the MOD thread  ( Snowmageddon, etc etc ) .....however look on GFS 12z OP and you see a 4-5 day Cold spell with snow showers mostly in the East followed by gradual thaw as Snow-Rain as LP with associated warm core arrives from SE.  

Remember 3 days ago we had snow flurries arriving in SE this Tuesday....this has now moved back to Friday/Saturday.

 

And now Sunday. The “epic” charts are always 8-9 days away. Exactly why it is called Fantasy Island.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Excellent country file forecast 

Yh and the Rock Salt salesman are laughing all the way to the bank. 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

4 hours ago, stevofunnelcl said:

is liam dutton reading the mod thread?, his latest tweet, is about caution

and quite right too..........BBC Snowwatch euphoria rules in the MOD thread  ( Snowmageddon, etc etc ) .....however look on GFS 12z OP and you see a 4-5 day Cold spell with snow showers mostly in the East followed by gradual thaw as Snow-Rain as LP with associated warm core arrives from SE.  

Remember 3 days ago we had snow flurries arriving in SE this Tuesday....this has now moved back to Friday/Saturday.

 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

1 hour ago, snowblizzard said:

Met Office & BBC Weather still seem very bullish about the outcome being some sort of Easterly by the middle/end of next week.

It's a long time since we've heard words like "winds coming all the way from Russia and Siberia' in a weather forecast for the UK.

How it all pans-out in terms of deep cold and whether it will result in a significant snow event is still very much open to question.

But, surely this is our best chance of something decent in terms of cold & snow for the snow starved cold lovers in SE England.

I just wish it had happened 6 weeks ago when the sun was in a much weaker phase!

Just vacated the “classroom “ and this post is the most sensible I’ve read this morning.

Sometimes it’s best to stand back and look at the bigger picture. I think it’s obvious we are going to get colder, with winds expected to be from an Easterly quarter. Depending on Where the HP lands determines whether we are dry or otherwise. So in a nutshell , cold ( potentially becoming colder ). Dry initially but possibly snowy as time progresses with the SE this time being in the immediate firing line. 

With the Jetstream “ retiring” to Africa, at least we can escape the mild SW / Nw dross that’s been dished up down here over  the past few months.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

2 minutes ago, meh said:

I'm pretty you're blaming the NHS's problems on the wrong people here.  But I guess that's the British way.

not at all , just feel that our priorities are wrong in respect of the balance between society development against scientific advances.

We have too many honorary scientists, lawyers and media artists and not enough quality tradesmen.    

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

So we line up with a SSW....an Easterly QBO, High amplitude MJO in favourable phase and an almost record breaking Zonal wind reversal......and what do we get.....exactly the same ..strong Polar Vortex and a 200mph Westerly Jetstream.

So where is the justification in all the teleconnective jargon..... no doubt they will find another elusive piece of the atmospheric jigsaw that caused our favourable winter scenario to be sabotaged. No doubt also that the UK tax payer foots the bill for the further development of atmospheric studies.....money that would / should be better spent on building Infrastructure and the NHS. 

  

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

40 minutes ago, meh said:

For the UK I'm sensing a rather benign, settled 'on the cold side' start to spring.  That could ultimately be the gift that the SSW brings.

The biggest snow beneficiaries might be Med countries e.g. Italy... a March 2015 easterly scenario could be on the cards for them again.

I doubt it, balmy Southerlies more like 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

at T+288 the GFS OP gives Eastern Europe an early taste of spring !

It couldn't, could it ?

#Easterly Zonal

 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

18 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Because it's only 3 days after the event.

 

•  
•  

 

right.........so a further 4 days on ????  Still the same ! 

 

Surely the Jet should be responding to Easterly Zonal wind influences ( if indeed they ever arrive ) ?

 

 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

This is worth the entry fee alone

Synoptically appetising yes.....but in reality its 16 days away and shows temperatures of between 4 & 6C nationwide. Nothing out of the ordinary. 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

46 minutes ago, sausage said:

is anyone else starting to worry about this coming to nothing or is it just me? the models are just not cutting it for me. 10 days plus i cannot get excited anymore about regardless of a ssw from previous experiences. the meto might look ace but theyd rather mild weather so wud never apolagise for flipping their forecasts to mild!! 

on another note why are we gettong rain from systems rather than snow like france. surely the stupid nose of the azores wud also pump milder air ahead of it across france too. the models look full of sbow potential but never materalises! this weeks cold spell that we all foolishly got excited about has produced nothing decent in terms of snow or that cold whatso ever!!

I would tend to agree with your statement.

From an atmospheric perspective this is undoubtably a perfect opportunity to witness and analyse the global effects of an SSW as it occurs. The scientific excitement here is perfectly understandable. 

 However at ground level ,today’s 12z GFS ensemble mean shows a slightly below average temperature profile for the next 16days, so currently very much standard fare for the UK and not a mini ice age as some other comments seem to indicate.

Back to the present,  the current zonal wind speed at 60n 10hpa is still showing a reasonably healthy 26 m/s. So if we are to see a reversal  ( currently scheduled for around midday on 10th Feb ) we should expect to see almost an emergency stop here tomorrow and maybe some improved model runs also.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

 

 

So 3 days after the SSW event and its associated Easterly wind reversal, how is the Jetstream still pumping out nigh on 200MPh winds across the Atlantic?  

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

 A light flurry in Canvey Island . Temp 3c

looks like the Thames May be enhancing convection.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Shorne West. Temp 1.5c, DP -1.9c . A few flakes, now melting on impact. 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Shorne West. Temp 2.0C. DP -3.1C Almost cloudless