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Shunter

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    Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Ŵ

    10 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

    Let's be real, this so called cold spell isn't exactly a cold spell. It's just a bit of a below average spell.

    Even in the worst of winters places sometimes still get a brief dusting of snow from a 24 hour toppler. And we've seen 24 hour topplers pack more of a punch than this current spell.

    All this marginality just doesn't equate to a cold spell imo. A lot of places still haven't even managed a frost this week.

    Yes the synoptics and pattern looks wonderful, and from just looking at the charts you'd think we'd be in the freezer. But unfortunately the cold just isn't there.

    Maybe we will eventually unlock the door to true cold, but this week was overhyped by many. When in reality it was never looking as cold as we would have liked to believe.

    Just watched the BBC forecast for the week ahead......London daytime temps 5-7c throughout with low pressure moving up from the South next week. They mentioned some Snow but really? With those temperatures?

    very, very disappointing considering the synoptics.

     

    • Like 2

    Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I find it astonishing that October and November promised developing cold to our shores with reflective negative AO and NAO figures and the PV in disarray. It seems as though a virtual switch was pressed on December 1st which almost immediately resulted in PV reformation, AO and NAO turning positive and the daily ensembles to trend increasingly milder.

    i looked at the same ensembles last year and its almost identical. Coincidence ?

    Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Interesting points, Matt...But, I see the Met's seasonal 'prediction' as more of a probabilistic 'expectation bias' than as a forecast...:unsure2:

    You know it doesn't make sense!:gathering:

     

    31 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Yes Pete... The met office will never overly commit if they are approached in person on all long range forecast, they may mention a few things online, but like you say these forecasts are more about possibilities! I think last year was the proof just how a seasonal forecast can fall to pieces in a big way.. Its so difficult in fact Pete, I think I will make my prediction in April when it's all over..

    so can anybody explain or justify why the british public pay millions of pounds for the Met "probabilities" ?

    They cant even get the details right within 3 hours let alone 3 months !  

     

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, mathematician said:

    The reason why people are very disappointed at this winter is because we have been promised Narnia and tons of snow with alle the "positive background signals" for months.

    First it should have been early December...then 'wait it's going to be mid-December'....then 'be patient and we will have a white Christmas'...

    then it was 'ok nothing has happened yet but mid January for sure!'...then 'well ok, but from the 26th of January on it will be memorable!'...now it's going to be 10th of February. Then it will be the end of February and soon the winter will be over.

    Let's be frank here, like it or not on a scale of 1 to 10 this winter has been a 0. And it looks like nothing is going to change anytime soon. Time to move on I suppose...

    Yes I think your statement sums up Winter 18/19 very well. The absence of “knowledgable” posters as of late would seem to endorse these comments also. Ive been on here since 2004 and can count the number of succesfully “counted downl  snowy  synoptics on one hand.

    Dozens of signals all over the place but ive not seen one yet that can be relied on to deliver the goods in the reliable timeframe. Yes they may increase “potential” and “probability” but thats it.

    Global weather science is fluid and has infinite outcomes. How hard we try i still think we are just scratching the surface of  our understanding at this time.

    Anyway back to the here and now and with Tropospheric propagation about to develop in a favourable MJO, Tropical Forcing, +MT, EAMT, Solar minimum environment, if the HLB fails to build and hold back the rampant Jetstream in the next 7 days, I for one will be switching off signalling and leaving any late winter / early spring snowy fruitfulness down to chance. 

    • Like 1

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

    This must be a good omen

    Who remembers the Thundersnow event with the cold front coming down from the North depositing 2-3 inches in the SE

    What year was that- 2003!??? Cant be

    well that night I was going Go karting for the sprints at buckmore park- started out as rain 5pm then snowed in the car park by 6..

    Well tomorrow im go Karting again !

    Remember it well . It was about 26th January 2004....i was stuck around the back of Biggin Hill after a tree collapsed across the road. We had about 3 inches of snow in 20 minutes. The temperature dropped from 5c to 0c within minutes.

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    You have to question what’s going on! I mean the differences between this run and the earlier GFS at day ten .

     

    Yes it does seem that the GFS super computers cannot resolve the post SSW impact for the North Atlantic. Despite the positive signals all over the Strat & Trop, the reviving PV definitely seems to want to head home to its North American lair. 

    • Like 1

    Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    53 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

    I have a feeling over the next 48 hours we shall. I think because of the enormity of the effect that ssw's have it proves indecipherable to the models themselves.  The severity of it and the likely effectd when they havebt even happened yet.....?  

    I think today is going to see the start of some mouthwatering charts. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N at midnight is (GFS analysis): 27.3 m/s . Its going to drop like a stone for the next few days , we await the Trop response.
    • Like 3
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