draztik
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Posts posted by draztik
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Extraordinary!
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18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Wowzers.
Sigh.
no context. Just a photo? Pls elaborate for new and existing members.
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- Popular Post
For Ireland, in particular, these are the setups they can only dream about. West is best and any breakdown is post 14+ days by the looks of it. Great to see it!
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8 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:
I have followed the MAD thread this week and read nearly every page, until this evening, its just become a blur of pointless emotion, the good, regular, knowledgeable posters are being drowned out in a sea of noise and all because snowmaggedon isn't happening tomorrow!
It is the same year in, year out. If this does fail, give it a week or so... and they'll be back for the next great adventure.
I ignore the thread for the most part at this time of year.
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The positive SST anomaly around the UK and France .... is this a driver to what we're seeing? And Im wondering if this is why we are seeing these strong & never ending positive heights indicated for autumn & winter 22/23.
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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:
For a crumb of comfort, the summer of 1911 had 14.5-18.2-18.2 but a normal September CET.
This is what the seasonal ECM is forecasting for Autumn.
Sadly, the horror show has a while to run yet if this is anywhere near to panning out as shown. Also, JMA & Met office also showing similar to this.
I suppose this is why they have been suggesting this could linger into next year re drought.
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15 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
What happened to the 15.6C recorded at Great Yarmouth on New Year's Eve 1901?
Met office don’t seem to recognise that temperature.
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Time and time again, the GFS is routinely binned for showing Synoptics that look ‘suspect’… however, we have all been here before. It’s the golden rule of model viewing.. esp w/ regards to the GFS. Once it picks up a trend, and builds on it with each successive run… you know something is afoot. Hopefully next time when it does this again, it won’t be so unceremoniously binned. However, I won’t hold my breath!
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9 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:
Morning all,GFS on it’s own on low pressure track from 168hrs to 192 hrs bringing low over U.K. less cold
while ECM/GEM showing much colder theme with low tracking to our northeast and more direct arctic
northerly blast.will be watching with a keen eye on the track of this low if it happens of course.
Been here before, haven't we.
You really want the GFS on your side in these setups.
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October looks like being a snoozy month given the NH profile, and the forecast into day 10 at least. Zero to get excited about! Ahh, the days of the seasons actually being seasonal seem to be over!
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The South East fails to notice a positive temp anomaly through the the EC ens mean during its entire run this morning. NI and Scotland fair better, as has been the theme this summer. Days 5-10 2m temp anomaly attached. Days 10-15 similar.
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53 minutes ago, DCee said:
How do you block people on here? I find Jon Snow on the model thread a little repetitive but most of all wrong, too much scrolling for insights.
Hover over the persons name, and there is an 'ignore' within that popup.
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33 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
Comical- literally the very bottom of the pack.
for context this was yesterday’s EC 12z op within its ensemble pack. And yet people were jumping for joy!-
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the op was an outlier last night and today’s output from the EC ( incl. the ens) adds further weight to avoid leading the faithful up the garden path!
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The GEFs and EC Ens point to average temps for the UK, through days 7-15. The EC op at day 9/10 is quite the outlier. But as always, why let that spoil a story.
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The EC ens heights anomaly days 5-10 likely illustrate why there has been one post in 11 hours.
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3 hours ago, bluearmy said:
And august is more than 4 weeks long ……I’m expecting a similar pattern to July with a warm/hot spell later in the month.
Anything to support this? Or just an expectation?
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ECM would give the UK a rather warm back end, if it’s day 6-10 output can be believed. Caveats apply - esp as the other models incl UKMO disagree (notably at day 5/6)
day 9 /euro.
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6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
Agreed. No way that is happening.
If a model isn’t showing you what you want to see, it has to be wrong.
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9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:
My faith is dwindling on this winter...it's promised but not delivered in terms of snow around my neck of the woods, a few cold days down here but nothing too noteworthy. It has that feel of a 2018/19 winter as we approach February and we know how that ended!
What information currently exists to indicate notable warmth for February? Please, I’d love you to share the charts. Or is this merely frustration?!
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5 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:
Just an hunch. I have a very very strong feeling 40oC could be breached at some point in the south this summer between now and August the 31st. Day 10 on ECM as +28 850hpa in Northern Spain. Only takes the correct movements and +20 850s could easily make it to the south coast. One to watch.
This forum is really not a place for hunches or “I feel it in my bones”. Please stick with the models. Foolhardy chat is best served in the moan thread.
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1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:
The ECM is a beauty at day ten (always day ten)
now that's a plume
the EC mean for the same timeframe tells the op to stop dancing up the garden path!
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2 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:
Well apparently these synoptic charts are impossible for late winter so... I hope they get downgraded or that this was actually a malfunction because gfs doesn’t go so wild like ecm on some of the days next week. Have to wait until this evening to verify and hopefully it won’t be so exceptional because, to be honest I’m a little scared here at the values I’m seeing
Scared? What’s going to happen to you?
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Just now, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:
I only said it doesn’t look record breaking, I did not say that it would not be very mild
These uppers look exceptional. And because it’s late winter and the model is showing mild, expect upgrades
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Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
@Summer Sun it’s up to 19.2C as per latest met office update.