[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

GEM being highlighted over in the mod thread - things rly must be dire. 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

23 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Appreciated bud but you know the the north west  will end up with pisch ....

You just can’t please some people! The NW has seen (and is still seeing) a period of fine weather. Temps 19-25, sunny cloudless days ... at least two weeks worth! And you’re moaning about westerlies. Get a grip. 

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

ECM backs up the gfs ensembles....this has come out of nowhere really, a couple of days ago high pressure looked like ruling the roost. Just shows things can and do change at very short notice. Flabby slow moving Low pressure parked over the U.K. is dire, normally what we end up with in the bad summers. Let’s hope it’s just a blip.

to be fair, the writing has been on the walls for a while now. Certainly if anyone had been paying attention to the ext EPS.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Just now, cheese said:

So you're essentially a troll. Interesting.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

6 minutes ago, cheese said:

At the end of the day, most of us are on this forum because we like unusual or extreme weather. You're not going to achieve anything by lecturing people. If that annoys you then as I have said a million times already, you're on the wrong forum. 

we're here to moan; so we're going to moan. enjoy the ride

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

 

Anyone would think that they enjoy starting arguments.. 

 

Considering you're one of the main instigators, i'd say you quite enjoy it.

Some folk just dont take delight in others misery; 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

22 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Agreed. Sod the storm potential. Enough people have suffered damage to their homes already.

People don’t care. If it’s not affecting them, no reason to care.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

47 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Why are peeps so excited about a slack humid cloudy north-east flow. It’s going to be dull for days on end in the east

This sums it up nicely. People want what makes others miserable. They see reddish orange charts and think ‘party’. 

Horrible week coming up for much of England. 

The people of Birmingham won’t be posting in the MAD thread any time soon ... they’re too busy with real life! 

 

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

18 minutes ago, draztik said:

Given the 18z GFS output - that appears rather shaky, shaky.

Shades of June 2012 from tonights 18z output. 

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

2 hours ago, shaky said:

Ukmo is a slight improvement compared to the 00z run which is good as it might be coming round the gfs idea of higher pressuee and more settled hot weather!!ecm not as good but i think it could backtrack by tomorrow morning and agree with gfs!!

Given the 18z GFS output - that appears rather shaky, shaky.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

You never know given the 46 dayer at the end of April showed a below average May and we are currently running 1.5c above average

Thanks for making my point.

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Early June looks cold on the Gfs 00z too!

 

 

EPS 46 dayer continues to  suggest a below average/average month on the whole. Then again, it's fast becoming cannon fodder much like the CFS - so expect a heatwave. 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Whichever makes me suffer. Pretty simple really. In all seriousness though the way things are going there'll be a crisis in the hospitals with cases of heatstroke etc like in 2003.

lol! We are far from there, yet! Let's see how this plays out! 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Ecm day 10, 12z and 0z. Lets play darts! Which one will come off, pays your money, take your choice. 

Ecm, king of the models. Brilliant stuff! 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

32 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Little to no hope left now. I'll be reaching for the Prozac soon.

This too shall pass  I am still confident June will not play out like this, or July. Chin up! 

[Short range model discussion - into 2018]

a truly informative thread. thank you knocker. 

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Great output from the ECM tonight, I've been holding back until the rest of end of the run here at t240:

One run,  but  a significant run,

Indeed. This model truly has been utterly woeful recently! The verification stats may paint a different story, but for our parts it has just been dire. 

[Spring 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc]

18 hours ago, cheese said:

The cloud and rain have been the real killer this spring, but thankfully the past 20 or so days have been pretty decent. The ground has dried up very quickly and is now rock-solid.

I've ordered you more rain. It will be arriving soon.

[Spring 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc]

Northern Blocking... oh dear. The main thread will be going into meltdown*... little talk of record breaking temps, for a while!

*wont be the heat causing the melt 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

1 hour ago, simshady said:

Yeah, horrible. No cooling breeze at all. Roll on winter!

something for you Sim...

the GFS 12z trend is sharply negative  (may not last for long, but certainly a cooler wk post Tuesday)

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

2 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Comfortable is subjective. Temps that feel a good 3c above what it is, no cloud cover to mitigate the sun, no breeze to speak of. Only took my dog for a 10 minute walk and nearly passed out. Still feel nauseous now. I would kill for a body that finds this muck comfortable.

and its only May...

Imagine record breaking temperatures (for cold) in October.... the equivalent, so to speak.

Never going to happen! So much easier to get heat into the UK than cold... then again, I hear its a warming planet

[Spring 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc]

4 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Utterly dreadful weather here. We’re paying for those nice couple of days last week, big time. A high of 7C in the London area at the end of April is very poor indeed.

But its very much the exception. Fear not, the London area will be back up soon enough... 

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

The updated EPS 12z never show a strong +ve temp anomaly for UK throughout its run - it goes positive Friday thru Bank holiday monday, but therafter, it goes negative once more, staying that way out to day 16. This would tie in with the EPS 46 dayer... which has shown a below average May in its last series of updates.

The GEFS would tend to agree, though less marked in comparison. Back to the old adage of 'more runs' etc. 

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Might be able to unpack them again later next week

 

Gee I do hope so. I do so hope you actually find the time to go spend some time outdoors too. Instead of being on here so much. Vitamin D n all. ?

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Good to see the orange colours returning as we get towards the start of the BH weekend

The trend, yes. But the graph you post is a little misleading, as the reality on the ground is a continued below average period.