draztik
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Posts posted by draztik
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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
But, judging from the CFS's long and distinguished career, that's got to be the best news yet!
Oh Indeed - but it has support from the EPS 46day... which is showing a pretty limp September, also. But who knows, wishing it away might stop the 'negative' trend.
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Those hoping for a stunning Sept, best look away...
not the trend you'd want if it's a settled September you want, per latest ensemble update (CFS);
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2 hours ago, Relativistic said:
Indeed, only 2015 has been cooler than average, and even then it was only very slight. It's about time we had some cooler summers
Indeed, well said.
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25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
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22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Yup, absolutely nothing is straightforwards for summer heat lovers or winter cold lovers.
GFS is another poor run in the reliable ..if its not a god damn trough moving in from the North west its a bloody trough sticking around the north sea like a bad smell.
Just roll on sept when there will no doubt be some warmth, im afraid its fast turning into another disgusting sorry excuse for a summer up here!
Bit of an over reaction? What do you want ? 45c? People are dying in Europe. We are seeing standard fare, no more no less. Less grumbling! The weather won't reward a grumbledor!
Little in the way of heat on tonight's GFS, 11-16 Aug shows below average temps, which is the story throughout its run.
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Just now, Frosty. said:
That's the impression I'm getting too, the settled mid / longer term signal is downgrading all the time.
Well there is one thing about you, Frosty - you will continue to look for silver linings and I do hope, for what it's worth, we do see some settled periods into August. Variety is what I look for... unsettled throughout certainly not.
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47 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Huge split on ECM ensemble clusters between D8/D10, 4 clusters ranging from the very worst (super trough close to the UK) to the very best (cut off trough to our south with heights above us into the UK). More runs needed!
I appreciate you sharing the link the other day, and regularly check these clusters. It does appear the signal for settled into mid term is turning into less favoured option with every update.
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If you like a mixed bag, then next week is your week.... Bristol certainly that. As for August, it had been showing promise, but the signal from EPS starting to wane w/ respect to a UK wide settled spell. (tho, the extended period will offer more 'summer like' conditions as opposed to the here and now.)
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ECM is rather abrupt w/ its latest update; No to any settled weather propagated by MetO. We'll need to start seeing these ' glimmers of hope' pop up on the models soon, otherwise, its another pony ride to eternity.
Day 9 on the ecm shows another low heading our way as per below. Day 10 ends unsettled.
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10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
I'm glad someone else posted this! I thought Darren Bert had been on the wacky baccy when I saw him forecasting this last night! Where the hell are they getting this forecast from!??
Must be rather confident if they are showing that graphic.... given its a week away. So their own internals must be at odds with the other output we can see.... tho there was suggestions of ridging into August - which is still present on GEFS - tho seemingly, that signal is being somewhat diluted.
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28 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Some signals again in the latter half of the GFS that things could settle down a bit after the first weekend in August. Much will depend on all of those systems in the Pacific hopefully buckling the jetstream and shaking us out of the zonal flow. Hard to predict their effect at the moment, but it looks like our best bet of a get out of jail free card.
Given the outlook, we may have to trade Mayfair & Park Lane for that get out of jail card!
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Models seem to be getting worse (if your preference is settled & warm weather); something I didn't think was possible. UKMO headed same way as GFS out to T144.
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Just now, Frosty. said:
Can't really argue with that but the hope is that further into august will bring a spell of high pressure, I would hate to think that there is nothing left to hope for this summer.
I made a quick edit... to suggest just that
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Op & EPS singing from the same hymn sheet this evening... into mid-term*
days 6-10 & 5-10 height anom.
*important to point out, there are signals appearing, days 11-15 from the EPS of a more settled spell being established with a relaxation of the jet, w/ heights building to the NW of UK... tho temps don't look anything special, at this stage at least. Something to keep an eye on.
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26 minutes ago, Singularity said:
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_150_mslp850.png?cb=119
The Atlantic though is a nice distance further north and a bit west on this run. Going to need a pretty big shift from ECM to boost confidence in a fine weekend for much of England, though.
Indeed; especially considering the outlook from the recent update of the UKMO 12z.
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Jurassic Coast, Dorset
Mourne Mountains, Co. Down
Bath, Somerset
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What a charming thread to walk into, with amazing photography. Autumn has always been my favourite season, and the above illustrates why.
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a rather unsettled and very wet period ahead for the NW (bar mon & tuesday).... if the GFS 6z is on the right track.
prec anomaly (23.7-31.7) shows the contrast between the NW and SE. The total prec chart is quite something for Ireland.
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16 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:
18z showing some interesting signs that hotter weather is around the corner and that Summer could well make a return in the first week of August... 3/4 days heat = thundery breakdown by the looks of it
This is 11 days away.... Summer is always 'around the corner' if you look that far out on any op run. Give me jam, today.... not tomorrow.
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40 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:
The result equals much warmer temps for next week than previously forecast.
Where are you getting this from? Or comparing to what? From what I can see.... temps of around 20-23 in the south, to 17-22 in the north have been propagated for a few days now for next week. and that hasn't tended to change, much. As per metoffice, yr.no, weatherbell.
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Height anomaly and temp anom, days 6-10 ECM.
Frosty, admire your approach... it shall pay off. And maybe before summer is over
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2 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:
Looking at that map.. Russia and a lot of the eastern block have had a cold July so far that's unusual?? its usually baking in western Russia at this time of year
It was the same story in June, notably so.
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Just now, knocker said:
I must admit I haven't been following the temp in Iberia that closely but I'm a little surprised it's not above average.
Was thinking that myself when I saw the graph
tho, there was a notable cool off for a period in July... can't remember the dates, but did notice Madrid had temps around 26C for a time.
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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
The south-east has, most of the uk hasn't!
Temp anomaly for July shows Wales, and places south of Midlands with above average temps... Scotland & NI bucking the trend. June was widely above, bar Scotland.
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tho, there was a notable cool off for a period in July... can't remember the dates, but did notice Madrid had temps around 26C for a time.
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by draztik
Stark. A reversal.
((temp anom. days 10-15, GFS 0z, GFS 6z))