draztik
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Posts posted by draztik
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ECM Ensembles, along with the ECM Op , continuing to show temps below average into mid term (days 5-10)... and theme continues into days 10 - 15. Tho will need to have a look at the clusters later for scope. Spring on hold!* [GFS 7 day mean, temp anom, echoes the ECM]
*if you're after heat, that is.
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7 hours ago, MP-R said:
Not much to say on the models at the moment other than the end of the April / start of May at least is looking showery at best and probably on the cool side. Nothing too unusual there I guess - I'm sure plenty of opportunities for April showers, which seem to be more common in May anyway nowadays.
All very normal! It would seem this recent hot spell has spoilt a lot of folk, who are now seeking continental flows.. looking for corrections, chasing unicorns.
Silly season has started early.
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14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
although there is a greater chance of above average temperatures into the second half of the month.
the MetOffice really sticking their neck out there with this one...
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On 14/04/2018 at 13:21, Summer Sun said:
Sensational 06z for warmth
?
The trend is not our friend.. quite the difference; (from the 12z GFS)
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2 hours ago, mb018538 said:
Looking softly worse this morning as the pressure build doesn’t really happen, and we get stuck in the cooler air. Not too unsettled I. The grand scheme, but could be better!
Indeed. A return to form, for the forseeable. Deck chairs and shorts, packed away! The EPS shows the temp anomaly turning negative as we progress; In addition, and interestingly, the EPS 46 dayer projecting a cooler than average May, UK-wide!
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people over in the MOD thread wishing for more snow and more cold.... given the ECM's 'upgrade' this evening.
The most selfish, indulgent folk you're ever going to meet are in there going bananas. All while folk are being killed, and cant go to work in these conditions. Aye, we'll cover the bill, while 'folk in France' sit idly by posting on a forum.
Shocking!
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Reading the mod thread at the moment, brb.
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Just now, Ice Man 85 said:
PWelcome back, friend! Not sure what to make of it myself. Been on the fence so long I've got splinters in my backside!
It’s quite apparent it going to turn much colder than what we have right now ... but these charts are not within the realiable yet we have folk behaving as though ice rainbows and apocalyptic snow drifts will descend on the UK!
good to see you posting, I can always rely on you to keep it real.
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6 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:
Still the usual caveats apply when viewing the MAD thread:
Yea, I actually can no longer read that thread, as realism has given into mass hysteria on an epic scale. I’m not a doctor, but there’s something wrong with them.
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Day 16 charts being posted over in MOD thread, from individual members of the GEFS; desperate times.
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Is there no russian high knocking about.... wasnt that going to be the saviour of this event we call winter....
oh wait. oh well, onto the next chase.
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And over in the mod thread this morning .... with reference to mid Dec onwards .....
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The fact there is heavy snow in Newtownards currently, tells me everything... quite the snow event developing in the province for sure.
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23 hours ago, draztik said:
this is how today has gone.
9am - WINTER. OVER. KAPUT.
12pm - Hmm...
5pm - OH.
7pm - OMG, 'come on ECM, get with it'.
11PM -
***
tomorrow, expect the same, though not necessarily in that order.
Rinse & repeat kind of day - with the 11PM update turning from
to ---
Unlike the models, at least with the vodka, my ups and downs are based on real events
(it's always jam tomorrow with the mods, be it in summer or winter)
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3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:
so after 1 million posts in the MOD thread, where do we stand?
this is how today has gone.
9am - WINTER. OVER. KAPUT.
12pm - Hmm...
5pm - OH.
7pm - OMG, 'come on ECM, get with it'.
11PM -
***
tomorrow, expect the same, though not necessarily in that order.
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5 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:
I like many others were not drawn in by Stella charts beyond 144
I think we need this type of humour on a morning like this.
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Looking on at the MOD thread this morning, fascinating stuff!
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27 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
I really don't think we should take the Ecm 12z as gospel,
Indeed! If the model isnt showing what you want, discard! Tips for winter, folks.
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2 hours ago, lassie23 said:
After four years of people 'self' forecasting and predicting snow etc in the MOD thread and cherry picking models that will never happen, I think a bit of banter is deserved and banter is often sarcastic in a light hearted way. The Daily Express does it and look what happens to them on this site.
Hallilujiah!
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42 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
Don't we get this every Nov though? good NH profile, northern blocking? surely it's because it's only Nov and PV not fully developed yet, wait until Dec, when PV will be fully developed and aggressive
Could be argued that we do! Doesn’t stop the MOD thread from going into meltdown and fully expecting whiteouts, blizzards and paralysing snowfalls though. Snow is quickly replaced with disappointment and then the chase recommenses. Carrots and sticks aplenty.
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2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:
take the Tut if you like mate. i'm just posting what the models are showing. i remember in 2010, all the long range seasonals were going for a mild winter, right up until the december update. we all know how that winter turned out....
The winter you speak of, was such a rare event - when everything went right, depending on how you view it. I do hope you are right, but I am so utterly convinced to the contrary, that its hard to ignore what I see as the glaringly obvious - the much fabled cold start to November has come and gone... the models led and the folk followed. There are only so many fingers I am willing to be bitten this year.
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On 03/11/2017 at 16:18, lassie23 said:
What utter banal garbage being spewed out by the models at the moment.
Excuse me, but havent you seen the latest musings in the MOD thread? A strong siberian high is due to take hold, and this is a key ingredient to a colder Europe. GFS day 16 charts should strongly be viewed favorably. Please disregard the Met Office's glosea, CFS ensembles and all other output favouring milder conditions... the Siberian High is being heralded as our saviour, so its cold all the way*
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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:
it still felt pretty hot in the sun today down here.
hot?!
mild, sure. very mild, I suppose. Hot? no.
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29 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:
Just checking the MOD thread - the cold spell has all but disappeared.
Fear not. There is Surely potential
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Usual suspects look for heatwaves, ruining the mod thread with constant idiocy! Yet in winter, same folk crying that plummeting temps are killing people....its quite surreal to witness the madness/hypocrisy.