draztik
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Posts posted by draztik
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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:
Could just imagine the carnage if it all turned on St Swithin’s Day and was wet until August 31st!
Indeed - but the way things are going.... I need to be careful what I wish for here.
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Looking doubtful dazzle! Very 2013 like ... so hoping August follows suit and it returns to something more ... normal?
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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:
Are you still predicting a below average summer Draztik?
Well!
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Mad thread on overdrive this afternoon. Bang on about ‘beautiful’ weather yet spend every second on here posting about it. Usual suspects, of course - so hardly surprising. The misery continues, in more ways than one.
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BBC News - Lettuce growers warn of Imminent shortage
There is to be a lettuce shortage from the middle to end of next week - due to the high temperatures and current high demand! I expect the Vegan/Vegetarian alliance to call for an early end to this heatwave! We support them!!
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Just now, Captain Shortwave said:
Very July 2013 at this stage in the position of the high.
Just what I was thinking. And that lasted for some considerable time, if i'm right in thinking...tho, what followed in August wouldnt please many on here.
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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:
GFS awful! Can’t help but think it’s barking up the wrong tree here
In GFS, we trust.
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27 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:
if it was into the 30’s C then it wouldn’t be so lovely but humidity has been overwhelmingly on the low side so not a drama for most people.
based on recent output, that looks set to change.
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4 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:
I’ll be putting out water and seeds for the birds and other animals. Otherwise, what a fabulous spell of summer weather. So much better than 17C, wind, cloud and drizzle.
You say that... but if you're in Surrey... i'd dare say your summers, since 2013 have been decent... and temps of 17C with drizzle are rather rare in your neck of the woods in high summer. So, you're being slightly dramatic.
But kudoes on the seeds.
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Well said Smartie. Will be doing the same in a few days time - esp the family of squirrels who visit regularly. I hope they are coping.
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that last chart Mike posted is rather scary indeed, and what could develop from it, thereafter. This is now turning into a particularly unpleasant situation.
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9 minutes ago, SnowJon said:
We've already got those here! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44651240
Expect this to expand to more areas. I can’t see any end to this heatwave, with zero signs for anyone seeking cooler weather to grasp, at least in the short term. The ECMWF should retire it’s 46dayer model, as it is an utter embarrassment. Almost the exact reversal is playing out than what it was showing update after update. To those enduring these conditions, it won’t last forever. That’s the only good news I can muster at this stage. I’ll be looking for every opportunity out of hell when I return from my break away.
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2 hours ago, Evening thunder said:
Looks like getting off to a good start if the current model trends (and further outlook, contingency planers, seasonal maps from the Met Office etc) are correct
June is currently 1.6C above the full month's average here. Some cool nights could bring that down a tad later this week but with today's 0.6mm of rain bringing my monthly total to 0.8mm (and the 35 day total to about 17mm), I think the story at least down here could well be dryness, with the model output consistently showing little rain.
Indeed - couldn’t disagree with this at all! Dryness, at least for the south, could be notable - rather than heat, IMO.
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14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
Come on GFS, pub run special please!
As for the CFS, does anybody really take it seriously? I remember that it gets looked at about a month prior to Christmas Day and within the space of 12 hours, flips from sub zero to sub tropical!
Its taken seriously when it's showing folk exactly what they want to see.
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Follwing on from the recent CFS output which is edging for a below average summer, Japan's ensemble model -JAMSTEC - has had a change of heart in it's latest assessment.
June update going for below average/average for the June - August period in the U.K. In contrast to May's update which showed above average.
May & June updates from JAMSTEC.
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13 minutes ago, Singularity said:
So not only is the trough-ridge combo sharper but the ridge is now looking stronger too.
That brings about the import of cool air Thu-Fri, but in exchange the ridge has much greater potential longevity than before, which seems like a pretty good deal to me
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Careful what you wish for. The ukmo temp profile (850’s) look distinctly chilly - with no guarantee it will export what you’re hoping for thereafter.
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Its simple, though. Don't reply to my posts & just ignore me. This incessant need to denegrate someone, just because they dont subscribe to your view of what summer should consist of, or how to interpret a particular model.
Based on analogues and the views of forecasters I respect, I consider on balance, this summer will not be particularly notable in terms of heat. This is my view. The end.
This is a weather forum. This is not life or death. If you dont like a comment someone makes, report it. But nothing I have said has been 'out of line'. You just don't like the view. Thankfully this isnt North Korea.
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lol, you people are too much. For one, this is a forum about the weather.... get a grip of your lives.
Second, just because you want warm hot summers... if I don't see it, i'll post my thoughts to the contrary.
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1 minute ago, cheese said:
I'd suggest putting that individual on ignore - does wonders.
If only. Don't be getting my hopes up.
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23 hours ago, draztik said:
Interestingly, the weather company/channel is forecasting a wetter and cooler summer than average for the UK and NW Europe, in complete disagreement with accuweather.com
this would correspond well, with what summer blizzard suggests above.
Interestingly, the latest CFS ensemble forecast for summer'18 starting to come onboard with the weather company's assessment.
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4 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:
I love this, every time theres good weather its 1976 or 2006 and when the weather is in a blip its back to well summer is going down hill now.. Absolutely no one saw May turning out like it did. considering the cold winter we had..Come the middle of next week and the weather is settled again.. It will be July is gonna be hottest summer month on record.
Incorrect. The weather company modelled May well; you are just swinging...
Just now, Djdazzle said:Certain people like winding others up. Don’t bite the bait.
Yes. When someone has a different viewpoint, they're on the wind up. Thanks for your contribution. I should say, summer this year will be warm, sunny and delightful - as that would suit you. Too bad, for you, I live in the real world.
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It would appear, on balance, the chances of a below average summer are now increasing rapidly! Given the background signals & analogues, it might be that, contrary to recent suggestions, summer 2018 will be notable for the lack of hot spells. I do hope Mr Pennell will be sharing his thoughts for July & August. His input, for me at least, is invaluable.
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Interestingly, the weather company/channel is forecasting a wetter and cooler summer than average for the UK and NW Europe, in complete disagreement with accuweather.com
this would correspond well, with what summer blizzard suggests above.
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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:
FABULOUS EC and EC mean this evening..
The azores high is on the move, pretty much as Tamara suggested a few days ago.
Yes. but nothing hot being forecast, whatsoever. If anything, we'll see a lot of cloud, as the high is predominantly to our west. Perfect conditions, for those that don't like it too warm. Yr.no, reinforces this, with raw ec data showing temps of 19-23C for London out to day 10.
all pretty standard fare.
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Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted