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draztik

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    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

    Ah ok, got a bit confused then. Was wondering why I could somehow go beyond the time frame of everyone else, it was because I wasn’t. Still not looking as record breaking as it did yesterday though

    Oh for heavens sake. Whatever way you look at it, it’s not winter. Record breaking temps or not, it’s likely to be close to 16 or 17C in favoured spots - exceptional considering we were supposed to be in an igloo had we believed the long range models. 

    • Like 2

    Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    50 minutes ago, mulzy said:

     

    PS - I know the window for cold is mid-January onwards so plenty of time for things to turn around.  Keep the faith.

    So it’s been pushed back to mid January now? Here’s a thought.. let’s just cancel winter altogether. If I have to listen to “I feel we are in for something special” or “the strat.......” one more time!! The UK is seeing nothing at all right now. And the EC mean has a positive temp anomaly throughout its run ... that’s out to second week of January. People keep coming back here expecting MAJOR changes every morning, only to be disappointed. The strat is not our saviour, let’s stop pretending it is. 

    • Like 8
    • Thanks 1

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

     

    I think folk are hunting prolonged (week+) of sub zero days......?  

    Probably best not to be looking for that type of cold in the UK, tho? Well, that’s if we are being realistic? 

    In late November we were told to expect this forum to be hyper busy into 2nd wk of December (due to possibility of severe cold)... then it was pushed back to Christmas. Now we are talking about early January & beyond .... 

    A definite and all too familiar theme. 

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 3

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

    All the talk of EC 46 and Matt Hugo... It nearly always changes from forecast to forecast. In my humble opinion, it's not worth the algorithm that works It!

    and the truth shall set you free.... a different forecast tomorrow will bring a new opinion. Hope you're ready for the winter season.... plenty more 'potential' and the jam is almost always tomorrow.

    • Like 3

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    So sad what this heatwave is doing to the country. Causing misery day after day; wildfires, parched land, crops ruined and reservoirs drying up - and looking at the EPS this is set to continue and intensify as we head into August. Horrific news for those that love the British countryside when it’s at its most stunning - instead of being a wasteland on fire. A sign of things to come. Sad. 

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Which part don’t you agree with. The U.K. based trough has been erased from the ECM and UKMO has higher pressure than the last couple of runs.

    And there is nothing whatsoever to suggest that Autumn will start at the end of July. Unless you have something to suggest It will?

    I know you want the status quo, forever. But the models are showing a deterioration. Heights being pushed to our NE; it’s all slipping away. 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

     

    The Scandi high scenario is very precarious when it isn't close enough to the UK - it can either make the summer kick on to even greater heights through plumes, or it could shipwreck the key holiday stage by trapping a trough inside. 

    Which is exactly what the eps extended is indicating. 

    • Like 1

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by draztik

    35 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    It may be your feeling but there is little to suggest that Autumn will arrive in late July as you put it. We are already starting to see next week’s unsettled spell being moderated.

    Not really. The eps mean, in terms of mslp, has a negative anomaly over the UK for period July 19th - July 28th... cya @ Heatwave. 

    • Like 1

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by draztik

    1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

    Is it that clear cut yet though? I think there will be some rain next week but what happens after is still uncertain.

    as ever. but i suspect we will see a return to the so called 'british norm'... with a NW/SE split. This mornings 0Z EPS ensembles did not exactly paint a rosy picture, UK-wide, for settled weather into mid - term - doubt we'll see much better from tonights set either. 

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