draztik

gfs 18z taking a sharp turn towards the ecm output...the second plume that it saw in its earlier run is gone.

The ecm ensembles don't necessarily support such a deep low at the end of its run, tho as pointed out by Matt Hugo via twitter, 26 of the 52 members do however now support such a low. So, definitely one to watch.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html

Ecm a bit reluctant to back any return of the heatwave, for any length of time...

no sure thing, esp if you look at the ukmo at 144

really?

a brief return, would have been a more accurate way of describing it. Please, don't get ahead of yourself. The models show this to be rather brief. If we listened to you and frosty, we'd be forgiven for thinking we were about to head into round 2 of the heatwave! No!

yes, i was actually having a look at last August, and certainly for the London area it was a generally very pleasant month in all, particularly in terms of recorded temperatures..http://m.accuweather.com/en/gb/london/ec2v-7/month/328328?monyr=8/01/2012 If this August proceeded the same way, I suspect most would be pleased. But as you rightly pointed out, there were regional differences.. others saw a mixed bag!

ECM now unsure of the intense heat displayed in its earlier runs, the 12z has this outlook by Friday

A very average weather pattern looks setup until midweek, with showers or longer spells of rain, esp the more north and west you are. Thereafter, a plume is shown to arrive from the south, but this looks to be a quick hello, then we usher in the Atlantic for what could be an extended period! awful tired of people speaking about FI, as though we cant discuss it. If its in the models, it will be brought up.

even if the ecm was to verify, that heat lasts for a relatively short period, before... we need to add a little perspective!

Next week continues to look unsettled for a lot of the UK.. Tho, the south east will be very warm at times, and this could extend further east and north for a time, before cooler conditions return by the weekend , having said that, there are signs of a pressure rise at the end of the ecms run, and the gfs is also showing this. So, we will have to see how the runs evolve.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/360351327328546818/photo/1 all long range ensembles have low pressure to the west of the UK at days 11-15 source : matthugo81 (twitter)

GFS 18z rowing back from the pressure rise it showed in its earlier run for the south-east next week.. Country looks decidedly unsettled!

Unless you live in NI or Scotland.

Gsf has been all over the place post 192 recently. It was showing a pressure rise last night, only to eradicate it earlier today. Now it is once again showing the hp becoming dominant at the end of its run. I just don't see the support for this type of evolution. Tho, with it being deep in fi, that's all it is at this stage... Fantasy.

Reality still to set in for some, it would appear. I would not describe Manchesters conditions as warm, if this was to verify. Just an average setup, at best. Not cold by any means, but warm... youd be hard pushed to suggest that.

Summer Sun, most people would be rather happy if what you posted verified. Me included. Sunny spells, some rain, relatively warm... a typical British August.

lol, they need to catch a break from posting endless summery charts I suppose. Thing is, I have enjoyed the heat, in parts. I am just not a fan of summers with very little rainfall, though it appears that will soon be rectified... It looks like being particularly wet in the North & West, though glad that the South West will likely see some moisture too. As is often the case, the South East doesn't look as wet as other parts of the nation.

The cross model support for low pressure dominated weather firming up, with little sign of the Azores high intensifying and shifting further north.. As is pointed out, its not far from the south at times, but at this stage the Atlantic flow looks like being dominant. Just like a few weeks ago, only this time the reverse holds true, high pressure fans are having to look deep into FI for hope.

as it was pointed out to me time and time over about a week ago, t240 is FI, and anything shown is subject to change? But of course, when its skewed towards your liking, its fine to suggest? Ahh okay

This from MattHugo81's twitter feed, just for a little perspective.. "For those asking the unsettled conditions will persist. Quite high confidence an unsettled/cyclonic pattern will be sustained into Aug." I believe this guy is a Meteorologist

Just to clarify, a cool down, to me, is relative to what you're currently experiencing. Therefore, going from 30C to the seasonal average is a cool down in my opinion. The ensembles are still on board, suggesting a return to normal temperatures. The ecm still shows no sign of the Azores taking control, nor does gfs!

You heat lovers would drive people to drink! For hot weather to come back akin to what we have experienced, you'd need the models to turn on their heads! The cool down is still alive and well, with the Atlantic soon to sweep in!

if you're going to quote me, at least be accurate. I never used the word major, i stated a breakdown was rather likely, as gfs was showing low pressure consistently near us just after the reliable time frame last week. To be honest, nothing really has changed. A breakdown by midweek, with cooler freaher weather sweeping in to all parts thereafter. Sure, the SE may hold onto some warmth, but the days of 30C wont be repeated by the weekend! Gfs FI then shows the Azores high being flattened for the remainder of its run!I remember many members questioning this flow to cooler fresher weather, and by midweek, this heatwave that has left many exhausted and feeling unwell will be gone. Look forward to fresher weather