draztik

Lets get back to what the models are actually showing this morning. The ecm, if anything, shows the thundery spell will be weaker than previously thought, with it moving any remaining heat away from the UK at the end of its run. The GFS has the breakdown pegged for the 24th, with a distinct westerly developing, bringing cooler fresher weather as we head into August.

Don't understand how the express get away with their sensationalistic headlines. "The country is already sizzling on day 14 of what is expected to turn into the longest heatwave in history. Temperatures have hit 90F this week and there is no end in sight to the scorching weather, which could last into August" http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/415968/95F-and-it-s-going-to-get-hotter-No-end-in-sight-for-heatwave that is in an article dated today, 19th June. Where do they get their data from... Maybe the express have their own weather model, and the gsf and ecm are thrown out. Ridiculous!

The 'king' of the models, doesn't look so regal tonight, as it falls in line with the GFS! So, the second tier model leads the way. How refreshing

NAVGEM in line with GFS also.

gfs has been incredibly consistent. Ecm, on the other hand, has been chopping and changing.

back chasing high pressure in FI? Well, there's a novelty

Gfs 12z, as persistent as ever, with its steady evolution of the low coming ashore by midweek. Also, if anything, it is another downgrade on its earlier run, both in the reliable timeframe and seemingly beyond.

This matt Hugo character, has just shown that the 3 longer range ensemble models now have low pressure tracking near, on top of the UK for late July / early August. https://mobile.twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/358145512848908288/photo/1

I cannot find one single model, including navgem, gem and bom which shows the Azores high reinserting itself over the UK in FI. They all either have low pressure near us, or on top of the UK. So at this moment, the models all suggest a fresher begining to August and likely beyond (if you see their recent overnight outputs)

i have never suggested part of next week wouldn't be pleasant. I think i have been pretty fair in my views regarding the breakdown. Again, the ecm seems to be on its own at this stage! Waiting for the gsf 6z run to better understand and analyze the early part of next week. But i agree, the ecm is better than its earlier run, and id be foolish to disregard it. Which is why im not!

cant disagree. Even the ecm still shows a return to fresher weather at the end of its run. As you say, its coming, but when? That's still to be resolved!i will concede, however, that the breakdown is continuously pushed back - if the ecm is your favoured model. Gsf remains firm, its suggesting raincoats and umbrellas ay the ready!!

Have got to say - I too was expecting the ecm to gravitate towards the ukmo, but its persistence, and what with the gfs showing similar output, i think the ukmo may be too progressive. Tho, its rather persistent too as of late. Guess another run is needed! as for the current run, west looks best, @ latter stages of the ecm. Scotland & NI holds on to relatively nice conditions.

ecm again refutes what the ukmo shows, continues with its trajectory similar to its 12z run.

all i know is that we have 3 different models, showing 3 different scenarios. But the underlying theme is for the current weather to breakdown in some way. You state the ecm is the King of the models, and ill start reading more into its analysis once the ensembles shift, but as we are, right now, that isn't the case. Again, just because one model is showing less of a breakdown, doesn't make it factually true. The same with ukmo, gfs. But the gfs has been trending towards a more substantial breakdown for the last 4 days now. The ecm has a slight change of heart tonight, and its jumped upon as evidence this summer heatwave is here to stay. To me, that is foolish. And some members with over 1000 posts really should know better.

isn't it foolhardy to rely on one model? Other models do not show this.. But please, carry on.

Ukmo seems to be too progressive with its output, as the ecm seems to be in agreement, more or less, with the gsf. The only thing that seems assured is that a breakdown is now firmly planted.

conjecture? My comment was based on the model output, primarily from gfs. It clearly shows the Atlantic being let in, it has been showing this trend for days now. So those suggesting im hopecasting, clearly aren't looking at the models. Further, the ecm and ukmo only reinforce this trend to a more unsettled theme, with the Atlantic becoming more active. At this point, the beginning of August does appear unsettled, with the Azores high being flattened. I note, other members have been posting data, clearly indicating August doesn't look too wonderful, at this point for heat lovers. its funny that those who have been suggesting th azores high would reinsert itself aren't accused of conjecture or hopecasting, when the models have been showing for days now the exact opposite. Its okay when it shows HP in FI, different when its the LP system involved!

the potential is certainly there. I think we could be on the verge of a rather wet August, with the 'form horse' being flattened to our South. The ensembles clearly point to a wetter and cooler theme ahead.

Nothing i have seen from the models tonight shows the breakdown fizzling out. Hot spell looks like going out with a bang. Talk of another two weeks of hot, fantastic, sunny weather isn't what the models show. Yet the masses persist.

such a shame the gfs and ecm don't agree. The updated ecm will be out shortly, then we can analyze the ukmo's output.

My garden is smiling this morning, even though it is half cooked! Wont be too long now! Glad to see some agreement from ecm this morning, though it does differ time wise with the gfs, to when the breakdown appears.

gfs 0z showing major downgrade, and though still in fi, there is now a clear trend towards cooler temps, with moderate rainfall edging in by next week. Gfs now been relatively consistent, and one can now assume a breakdown will soon be in motion.

just reportin what the models show earlier they showed the entire UK under a cooler flow. And even on this GFS run, the temps would be lower than what we are currently experiencing. Plenty good for me. I do not want excessive heat, 24C and im happy. And currently, that's what we may end up getting Goodbye 30+

It would seem a very noticeable north/ south split is developing from the latest output from GFS. The low from the Bay of Biscay will bring some respite in the short term, with the south warming up thereafter. This is completely in line with the met office, who have been suggesting a north/ south split for a while into August. Some very high temps expected before the low impacts the south west though.

Accurate, in terms of overall temp... but rainfall? Thats a different story.