draztik

Gfs 18z looking less settled and less warm tonight in fi, compared to earlier runs.. support for a hot spell, seems to be slipping! Edit : tho if you ask me, that support was limited in any case.

Glorious! HP incoming without the debilitating heat of July! The gfs ensembles look a pretty picture tonight!

Highlighting the difference.. models at 240 The Gem, gfs, ecm.. given the gfs ensembles do not support the op, i think the ecm could be closer to the mark!

you're right, the SE does look like it may be in for some rather warm temperatures!! But still don't see this being a UK wide hot spell! away from this, next Monday looks cool

The gfs 12z op does not have ensemble support! A warm outlier from the 12z tonight! this is becoming a consistent pattern. A heatwave still not the likely evolution. The only thing that does look apparent, is for hp to build- leaving us with a settled 7 days, maybe longer! http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

Thing is, saying that we are heading towards a hot spell seems to be nothing more than hopecasting at this stage. The models don't show this "hot" weather! HP, even in August, doesn't always correlate with hot weather! If you look at the gfs 12z op, it doesn't show temps in the mid 20s until the 25th!! if anything we are heading for a very pleasant spell. But hot? Where is the support for that? Even the ensembles don't show it. Above average is all that is shown tonight.

Im sure john could better articulate the anomaly charts, but the HP the models are showing seems to now have anomaly support! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Pretty sure hp is incoming. But thankfully not the heat!

the weekend will feel as though we have been transported back to last summer, if the ecm verifies.

Gfs 12z wants to give us a settled second week, with temperatures comfortable to warm, perfect

Kudos to the MetO, it seems they were onto something with their t144 output, as the gfs is now moving in that direction, with the deep low nesting the NW!

Gfs 6z only reinforces my earlier thoughts. Absolutely no sign of a uk wide hot spell on the way! gfs ends its run with about sums up August so far! Average.

I hear you Mushy! But i was commenting on the gfs 18z, which wasn't showing what you just posted! In saying that, your charts don't look overly hot! Certainly not akin to July! The anomaly charts would need to change for me to believe this was about to become a uk wide event, rather than a SE spell!

The MetO is differing with the other main models this morning at the end of its run! it has a deep area of low pressure just west of N.I. at t144 this will need to be watched! ecm at t144!

Not sure what to make of the gfs 18z! It has the low concentrated over Iceland at the weekend, but it then becomes stubborn to move. The HP in FI is all but gone, t300 this is how the gfs 18z ends its run, with the Atlantic becoming far more mobile.. as opposed to hp from its earlier run (gfs 12z) as for the talk of a heatwave, ... This chart asks us, heatwave? Where?

I can see that HP is trying to build, and that's all well and good! But, as each day passes, and as we near september the less chance of any real hot weather! Ill take an indian summer tho, with highs in the low to mid 20s!

doesn't Matthew live in Northern England? Have you seen the precipitation charts for N.I., Scotland and the North of England? It looks wet, really wet!only the south gets pleasant weather. This is not a dry week upcoming UK wide. As for the heatwave, still waiting to see any real signs! GEM looks particularly mobile with its output tonight.

absolutely true, the gem is much more mobile than the other models. It ends its run with , so this hp that gfs is showing is by no means nailed on!

Also, interesting to see the extended 5 day forecast for London on the bbc weather page. It has a temperature range of 16-30C for Friday 19th! In Belfast its 14-22C!

Northern Ireland appears to be in for a soaker the next week or so! While the South sees some pleasant summer weather! I hope conditions improve for our NW friends.

This mornings runs are rather disappointing for summer fans wanting a return to heatwave conditions anytime soon. The gfs doesn't show HP building in wide scale until the very end of its run, while the ecm up to 240 shows bands of low pressure crossing the UK up to this stage. Next week tho will feel fairly pleasant, the more south you live! even if the gfs is correct, a return to July heat looks unlikely. It will however be pleasant, perfect weather to end summer the daily express headlines, given the models today, appear reckless and absolute nonsense.

just as you should treat the gfs run with caution, as the ensembles show the op was an outlier, with more members indicating cooler temps!

ECM showing a north/south split as next week progresses, but as the weekend approaches its downhill for just about everyone Sundays chart!

Until the ECM starts to move towards this increase in heights, doubts remain. Having said that, even the ecm shows a decent middle of the week, with Friday being the start of its pullback. Will be interesting to see where it takes us, in under 30 minutes or so.

Apparently the EC32 has gone under a major change, and there are now signs of rather settled weather with HP from the 21st onwards. though, by looking at this mornings ecm output, you'd be forgiven for thinking the exact opposite.