draztik

argh! I realise im in the minority - but please, no!!

There seems to be a subtle pressure correction taking place with the latest gfs output. Edit : maybe subtle is too kind a word. Starting to appear substantial. gfs 0z 144 gfs 6z 144

the worst piece of journalism you can ever imagine. Though, it is August, and they need to sell their papers somehow. For their predictions to come true, the models would need to do a U-turn, including the gfs.the ecm continues to be stubborn this morning, and suggest an unsettled week, esp for more northern areas. as for warmth, the only chart i can find is but at 324t, we know the score!

the problem with that is the ecm has been the only model over the last few days to remain consistent with its output. It has shown unsettled conditions for the last 3 evenings. Whereas the gfs hasn't been able to make up its mind. The gfs may prove to be ultimately correct, but ill take consistency over erratic waves.

I believe the GFS has very little support, and by looking at the anomaly charts, you kind of see why...

at 192, this is the output... it looks like being a fairly unsettled week, if this comes to pass. This is in contrast to the GFS. I cant comment on the MetO as it only goes to 144.

ECM reluctant to build pressure, in contrast to GFS.

GFS and MetO do show agreement. However, the GEM 12z does not fully agree, and sees the pressure rise as being a brief flash in the pan. Like last night, all eyes on the ECM.

definitely see the pressure rise, but due to the MetO not going beyond 144, we tend to look at the other models for a guide on what's ahead. Looking at the other models at that timeframe, they tend to show similar output, but at 168 the pressure is seen decreasing in all 3 models (Gem, Gfs, Ecm).http://meteocentre.com/models/compar_models.php?map=eur〈=en&run=00&stn=PNM&&range=glb&hh=168 shed, i saw Carol Kirkwood mention those low temps in Scotland earlier, brrr!!

GFS 0z all but removes the Azores high ridge at 192, in contrast to its earlier runs... As for the ECM, its showing no ridge affect.

The MetO and GFS both showing a more significant pressure rise, for Friday thru next week... That's a big change from what the MetO were showing last night. will be interesting to see where the ECM takes us.

I actually don't think the output is all that bad. If you live in the South, it looks pretty decent. It does appear the NW will bear the brunt of the unsettled conditions. I think people were spoiled in July, and so this weather pattern that the models appear to endorse seems almost 'boring' in comparison.

Gfs 12z Gfs 18z similar timeframe, big difference.

certainly not I :pi have to say, this is perfect summer weather to me, if it verifies. Showers, sun, warm... Humid and hot ain't my sort. the ecm op is less progressive with the ridging, so by the looks of it the South will be mostly fine, while the NW is more prone to fronts. Standard for the UK, one could say.

you were specific in mentioning the south, hence my post.also, the models at this point don't show the north/ NW joining in, in any extended warmth.

August 2012 in the SE was pleasant and rather warm.http://m.accuweather.com/en/gb/london/ec2v-7/month/328328?monyr=8/01/2012

ECM seems to be on its own this morning, certainly in terms of having the Azores high nudge itself further north eastwards into the UK. GEM and GFS promote the idea of a more Atlantic driven trend, with low pressure in and around the north of the UK. GFS does show that the best of any weather will be in the SE, as normal. long range ensembles (GGEM, GFS Ens, NAEFS) for the 12z runs still shows LP over the UK / to the north, so it'll be interesting to know where the 0z updates take us. However, as runs pass by, there are signs of the Azores trying more and more to push its way northwards, with the ecm being most progressive with this.

ECM wants HP back, and its trying its best to nudge northwards..

If the mornings output is to verify, next week really doesn't look too bad. The meto have partly cloudy conditions for the north west thru much of the week, with little rain. After this period, it looks more uncertain. HP is always nearby, but still at this point, it doesn't look like it wants to position itself over the UK. So, probably a mixed bag until the middle of the month.

spare a thought for those living in Scotland and NI who saw temps of 17C and persistent rain for most of the day. I think there is a big difference with what the models are showing currently than a couple of weeks ago.. Theyre showing a jet being fired up(something that hasn't happened for a while) and seemingly we are likely to be on the wrong side. The long range ensembles all show low pressure anchored close to our shores. As for FI, ill say this, they have all been rather steady and somewhat consistent the last few days with showing inclement weather conditions... The ecm showed a deep low a couple of days ago, and now the gfs is showing it.. The models obviously are picking up signals, somewhere, to validate the output! The NOAA 8-14 anomaly charts also favour low pressure over the UK. It all paints a picture, but of course its open to interpretation.

As autumnal seems to be the buzzword of the night.. from the gfs 18z even i hope this does not verify! Awful.

If the ecm is anything to go by, next week looks rather unsettled, and i see no charts from other models to offer confidence in a return to settled warm conditions. In fact, the jet stream is forecast to be south of the UK, into next week and beyond - which doesn't allow the Azores high to ridge north! The gsf ensembles are on point with the ecm, a showery/ wet week ahead, with average temperatures for most of its run. I wouldn't call it autumnal for the London area and SE, but just average. However, the North West of the UK looks particularly below average. http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html the precipitation charts illustrate this divide, with less rainfall for the south east.

The Azores high wants to come back and say hello to the UK. This chart offers hope to those wanting such a return

interesting. I cant locate any charts, which show a return to settled, warm conditions post Friday. Certainly, the anomaly charts for the 8-14 day don't support settled conditions.

indeed, the way the models have been going recently anything is possible. But there is growing support for this pattern, with the 8-14 from NOAA, showing this (thanks John, for the links) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php