draztik

haha, ding ding ding!!

The EPS control model (ecm) shows a blocking high form over the UK from t240 to 360. So, i suppose confidence is growing for a settled longer term outlook, with 10-12 uppers associated with this HP.

The ensembles for the main models are lukewarm to the Azores building over the UK. It appears the south may be the area that benefits from a slight ridging. The ops, however, are more encouraging for HP to build more substantially across the UK.

The ensemble prediction system model for the ecm is painting a decidedly unsettled next week for Northern Britain, with spells of rain/showers for the majority of its run. The south escapes with higher pressure and fewer showers.

The updated GEM ensemble forecast shows an unsettled Saturday for northern areas as for the all important BH, it has a fresher feel for all, tho more so in the North. showers, or rain, looks to be confined more to the east.

If the gfs 6z is to be believed, Ireland is the place to be! Looks glorious, if sun and warmth is your bag!

yes, the best way to sum things up (based on the output this morning) is to describe things as tranquil, for the foreseeable and into fi. I think many will be happy with this, this is perfect weather in my view. Sunny spells, warmish, light winds! Lovely!obviously, the more south you live enhances your chances of these conditions.

The changes in the models from one run to the other almost makes it impossible for us to even comment on them.. I suppose the anomaly charts are our only way of trying to work things out atm.

Fear not Shed, the trusted gfs in fi takes us into an Indian summer... lol

Big difference at T144 between the ecm and gfs

the ensembles were showing a very different scenario just a couple of days ago, nosedived is an appropriate statement in this case. No idea if a trend for lower temps has been set. As ever, i only analyse what the models appear to suggest.

The gfs ensembles have nosedived this evening, with below average temps shown from the 26th of August thru to end of its run, particularly for Aberdeen & Manchester. Rain spikes have also increased for all areas. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess= the precipitation chart illustrates where the highest rainfall amounts are likely; mostly in the north west. Just a couple of days ago the same chart was showing no rainfall for these areas, so obviously taking into consideration the change in the models. http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

so those suggesting temps in the 90s for a protracted time period, isn't suggesting a heatwave? Please.

funny, i saw those exact same models, and i never see heatwave conditions from them. The ecm model, over the last week, has been very reluctant to show temps as high as the gfs regularly shows. People see one model, and go crazy! I realise that's normal in here, but ...hp was always likely to come to the uk the week ahead, that was never in dispute. But we had some suggesting temps in the 90s. The support for that kind of heat, was limited.

honestly, if you had seen some posts earlier in the week, you'd be forgiven for thinking a July heatwave was on the way! The shortwave which affects the northern UK appears to be the spoiler, which disrupts the hp's dominance. Also, even if we see those warm temps you suggest, we may also see a fair amount of cloud too. All in all, we will get a lot of useable weather, but no heatwave on the way

The eps ecm control model from t240 to 360, shows very cool air over the UK by the end of its run, with 5 uppers over the SE and near 0 over Scotland, NI and Northern England. As for the "hot" spell by midweek, it appears to be rather brief, before cooler and unsettled weather move in.

Trust the ECM to crash the party! Even the brief warm up the gfs 12z shows is under attack tonight, with the ecm showing a cooler outlook.

Gfs12z more akin to what the ecm monthly update showed last night. So, a warm up coming by mid week, lasts about 5 or so days, then its cooler temps until the end of August, with another brief warm up by the end of the month.

Anyweather is absolutely right to be skeptical! The ecm monthly update has just been published, which shows no heatwave conditions other than a brief warm up at the end of next week, and a 4 day period between 30 August and 2 sept! After this date, it is showing progressively cooler temps affecting all areas. In terms of settled/unsettled.. Its a mixed bag! The SE looks like being the best area for warmth and sunshine amounts as we go deeper into sept,(tho it must be said, even here the model shows areas of LP affecting this area at times too) and the NW the most unsettled! interesting to note, the monthly update also shows a hurricane form - which tracks towards the Carolinas before turning NE and heading into the open Atlantic. So obviously, if this hurricane forms as the ecm sees it, it will have to be tracked as it could well affect our weather here in Blighty!

ecm not the model for those living in the NW this morning.. Especially as the run continues! Also from t240 to 360 on the eps control model, shows hp all but gone, with areas of low pressure and associated showers/rain, for all areas of the UK.

Gfs 12z and ecm 12z appear to be warm outliers, as they do not have ensemble support as evidence of an incoming heatwave!

pretty certain hp will build into the south! That's not in dispute. But if the MetO moves towards the GEM 0z output, it would matter quite a bit! That model shows much more of a NW flow, with fronts and lower pressure affecting the North! Meaning a UK wide settled spell is unlikely. So im guessing it would matter to people in Scotland and NI!

pretty sure you could have used my other quote, when i mentioned the op has little support from the ensembles. I was commenting on that particular run, which showed much cooler conditions.the heatwave conditions still have little support, and until the ensembles come on board it is just a chart showing heat! The gfs ensembles have not supported the op for about 8 runs now! Pretty sure ill be back here in a couple of hours to see once again, an op without support!

Gfs 12z showing a return to heatwave conditions! Think ill wait for the ensembles, as the op has been on a run of warm outliers recently.

MetO becoming more GEM like this evening... pressure not building in as quickly, certainly when compared with gfs at same timeframe.