KTtom

Same here, stick to the big 3 if you want a fair assessment, if you look hard enough you will always find what you want to see with all the models out there. The others are only any real use to highlight how poor the pattern is, its the only time they get mentioned!.. I'm awaiting someone to post a chart from JMA!

Not a wonderful set of runs overnight..gfs does at least give us a UK high for a while..not very often Exeter promote more wintry conditions that the models are showing, im getting more nervous every day checking their updates, something must change very soon, either model output or Mets updates. UKMO day 7 chart hardly supporting hard frosts for nothern areas..

To be fair to John, at least he is posting a chart which exists. The majority of posts over the last 2 pages are relating to ecm post day 10 which is pure guesswork?

Slow burner?! Blummin daffodils will be up by the time that goes cold

..and then we get the much anticipated SSW which knocks the pattern back to Mild! Merry Christmas

ECM, finally we loose the heights over europe and the westerlies, to be replaced by southwesterlies !

So, if im reading these correctly a 10 to 20 pascal possitive anomoly over Greenland / Iceland area. Does this equate to high pressure, which im sure most instantly think when looking at those charts, or just not quite as low as normal? Quite a difference between the 2. Back to the more reliable timeframe and UKMO sticking with the UK limpet low idea to see in the new year..

Ive mentioned this before, those posting factual information on here are under appreciated and get drowned out by those seeking to be liked... Gfs in particular and UKMO seem to be going down the UK trough route for the turn of the year...otherwise known as the limpit UK low! No signs at all of any blocking setting up in a favourable location as yet. Even going out as far as day 10 the 2 main drivers in delivering a wet and mild winter to the UK are very evident..

Ive been to Stockholm, lovely city...im off to Ruka near Kuusamo end of Jan...If you want a snow fix, thats the place..(google Ruka web cams)

Think it may be similar to 'the torpedoe has been launched'

Yes, unfortunately its becomming more of a clique over there, ive noted it before in recent years but definitely worse this year. You say about learnings, ive regularly asked in relation to teleconnections what went wrong in August as apparently the science was rock solid pointing towards a hot dry spell...totally ignored by the so called experts! Its nice to have people like Tillys posting factual charts as opposed to those posting something at day 10 and guessing how it will transcribe into something fantastic down the line..hopefully he/she continues and doesnt loose enthusiasm fighting the tide. I thought we were having a 'chasing cold' thread this year for the rampers Anyway, enough of the moaning, the Xmas cold spell is now within the reliable..just checked the Met, my temps are forecast to tumble to a bone chilling 9 c on 25th and 26th.

Got a better memory for dates than me, but I remember that one, first appeared in early December for the end of the month, then constantly moved out in 2 week chunks until it finally vanished start of spring..think that was the same year EC46 also constantly showed northern blocking galore every update which never materialised.

From my understanding, Tropical Maritime is air sourced direct from the tropics i.e. south westerly sourced from the Azores.. Returning polor maritime airmasses originate from the north but may still be from a south westerly direction as it hits the UK as it circles an area of low pressure to the west..anyway, rpm is colder and dryer.

Funny how the UKMO is on 'ignore' over the other thread...Im not brave enough so ill post it here.

Remind us what went wrong in August then when all background drivers said settled and very warm as late as mid July? When i look at charts like this UKMO 168 i see little sign of a majour pattern change anytime soon.. which is the Mets take till mid Jan at earliest. As someone said yesterday, the overpowering teleconnection we have is Climate change .

The other thing ive learned is to stick to the same 3 models and look for consistancy, the obvious 3 for me being GFS, UKMO and ECM. When you get ICON and JMA being rolled out you know its desperation time. There are so many models, ens out there look hard enough and you will find what you want to see.

Its the constant modelling of the Euro high after Christmas which is turning into a bit of a worry... It may be 10 days or so away but its a constant theme of the latest gfs runs and now ECM is in range of that time period.

You spent longer in pub than me !?

Its consistancy in model output you look for and a euro high has been constantly modelled for a couple days now, take into mets forecast and there is high confidence..models handle mild spells much better than colder spells and FI pushes out significantly. As NS commented the other day, the southerly digging trough always seems to be corrected north nearer the day.

Yes, the trend since yesterday is in the wrong direction if you are looking for a wintry blast..a monster euro high forming on gfs in time for Christmas. A couple of posters absence this morning speaks volumes for the output. We need something to shake the pattern.

A wry smile how fickle we are.. during a cold spell anyone who posts a chart past 144hrs showing a return to milder conditions get absolutely ridiculed, yet it sounds like this north westerly at 200 odd hours is nailed on!? Before then, 5 days minimum of temperatures in double digits for me, although sunshine will be limited to say the least.

The tone for late this month now being pushed on to mid next month, with a 'low chance' of something other than a northerly toppler.

According to last nights ECM we still are!

Not sure ive seen such a chart with 2 so dominant systems. A deep large vortex moving into Scandinavia and a massive High pulling west into the mid Atlantic...screams potent, long lasting northerly by day 12 to me....if we get to this stage..

I still go back to July when everything was aligned for a settled and very warm August.. it didn't happen! The phrase 'Rock solid science can't be wrong' being used to describe the background signals in mid July.