Gaz1985

Errrm trees of any size can snap from the middle in storm force winds, not just from the base. I don't know, if anything it might make roots weaker over time. I don't think trees gain any "experience" or know what's hits them, they don't really have a brain of sorts.

Indeed I said a similar thing last night and got hounded for it, I guess all the trees in the far south must be of a delicate tropical nature or not part of the species we have up north?

Indeed I fully agree. Just a very windy day but nothing extreme like 1987 or Burns day storm.

The storm looks more intense over in Northern Germany/Netherlands/Denmark than it does here, could be looking at 85mph over there or higher.

I would be more worried if I lived in Northern Germany, Denmark or Netherlands.

I'm not sure... difficult to know until it happens when wind speeds are recorded but I reckon the biggest disruptions on Monday will be the ferry crossings to France etc where the strongest winds are likely to be in the channel. Places like Scotland have these ferry disruptions most Autumns/Winters and not just once probably 6-12 times and with stronger winds than what is projected for the south on Monday. For sure for the south this is a biggish storm but certainly not for northern areas, I think there is a southern bias to this storm - if it was further north it wouldn't get quite the media coverage that this has had, I know I'll get it in the neck for this but I don't care.

GFS continuing to signal the worst of the winds in the English channel well away from populated areas, looks like East Kent may well have the strongest of the winds inland and possibly Isle of Wight/Channel islands, for the rest of south just very windy but that's all, nothing we haven't seen before though.

Yep true, since this low emerged a number of days back it has tracked further and further south on the models, wouldn't surprise me if the strongest winds will be in Northern France, we shall see, still uncertainty with this.

Indeed potential is the key word here, it's not a nailed on severe event until a Red warning is enforced. So until that happens this event is not as bad as it can/could be. Also the reason why only Amber warnings were given for some flooding like you mentioned is because river flooding happens every year, I don't think it would be reasonable to issue a Red warning every time unless lives were at risk, some rivers don't endanger people that's common sense in a rural area where there's not a lot of people, but winds usually are more dangerous with slates flying off roofs etc. And I don't want a Red warning 4 days out either, ideally I will wait until Saturday or even later if that happens. Depends on the state of construction, something old or flimsy like a wood fence will break easily - doesn't take a rocket scientist to work that out, also smaller trees will get battered but older bigger trees with longer roots won't get uprooted unless the wind is 70-80mph but even then it depends. In the past we have had winds of 75-80mph but big old trees in a nearby field are still standing. If that was the case with 55mph winds Manchester would be treeless! lol

True John so I think at this stage it may only be a small part of the UK that might be affected, although who knows even there it may get downgraded or maybe more of us could effected. The track is still uncertain, I guess we will know better by the end of Saturday. Trees won't be uprooted with 55mph gusts, minor structural damage to fences etc yes, we have winds of 55mph every year up here but we don't have uprooted trees, that only happens in 70-80 mph gusts.

Where does it say it might be 70+mph gusts especially inland? perhaps out in the English channel? damage to waves most likely then lol. GFS going for 70+ mph gusts out in English channel, we'll see if the inland speeds update tomorrow onwards. Looks like only a small part Kent might be worst off in all this - the far Eastern tip, maybe Isle of Wight. But for most of us it's just very windy but not terrible. In all honesty though I'll wait for the Met Office to upgrade their warnings before I can be 100% sure, we all know GFS "over-do's" these lows aswell.

I guess any strong wind will be very temporary then John? they usually go hand in hand in a weather system. Until a Red warning is on the Met Office warnings then this isn't (at the moment) anything severe.

Haha who said "major" flooding? sure rivers may well go over their bank but I'm not talking about like what we seen in the Lake District in 2009 - it won't take much heavy rain for rivers to swell even more after the prolonged unsettled spell that we've had. I live near a river and it's rather high now.

Not discounting anything, I think at this stage the worst thing about this potential storm is the ground already saturated in many parts of the country and the risk of possible flooding near rivers - also the odd branch being snapped off some trees which happens most years in many parts of the UK anyway. Nothing we haven't seen before but judging by some of the papers and hysterical flapping in news you wouldn't think it!

Looking at today's models the potential storm on Monday doesn't look THAT bad, if anything it has downgraded from a few days back when the worst of the winds were looking like being here in NW England around 60-70mph, for southern areas not really used to strong winds it might be a bit of a shock with 40 or 50mph winds along the coast but from here northwards we get these sorts of storms most Autumns a few times and we don't make any fuss about it, Sometimes lowland and coastal Scotland gets 90mph. Sure on Monday there may be a few twigs broke off trees but I can't see anything like 1987 or the Burns day storm etc.

A Green Christmas

A pure nasty area of low pressure, but we all know GFS enjoys to ramp up the low pressure systems so I wouldn't be surprised to see this much weaker by then

Talking about Atlantic storms, Anyone remember this day who live here? a gust of wind of 122km/h was recorded http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/EGCC/2007/1/18/DailyHistory.html I remember the windows in my old house creaking like mad, I bet they were very close to blowing in! cars wobbling on the street and then seeing slates flying everywhere. 2 people died in Manchester. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6272193.stm

The 6z Looking a bit wet for the next 7 days, but at least it will be mild as Gav says there could be something chillier as we approach November which is shown below with the GFS showing some cold uppers of about -7c for this location. Though it's still a while off yet time for things to change.

Yes they live further south John but strangely they live about 10 metres higher than here, not sure whether a wind direction, topography or proximity to the Pennine shadow was the reason I'm not sure, it was strange though to hear them say a few times "there's no snow here" yet I had a good enough covering to cause slush on the road.

Last Winter was very odd with the snow distribution especially in Greater Manchester, some relatives who live near Stockport had hardly any snow settle, yet here we had a number of measurable events.

7 or 8c is not "cold"

Light winds, with little or no wind it won't feel as cold as the thermometer says. That is until you get below -30c then it starts to feel cold when your lungs hurt when breathing. Regardless of wind.

People going on about how cold it was in December 2010, just look at how cold Altnaharra was, MAX of -14c on the 22nd, ouch!

A cool 15.6c in here at the moment but no heating on, the mild air is finally reaching us now so it should go up a degree or so indoors, looking at the models cannot see the heating coming on until at least the first week of November, hopefully it will be longer than that!