Snowy L
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Everything posted by Snowy L
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-2C already here.
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They are reflections of the pressure around the Arctic and North Atlantic the models are forecasting though I think? They are not a separate thing.
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The rate at which the polar vortex in the Arctic goes from zero to 100 after day 10 (low res) is a bit suspicious to put it lightly.
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I've also found it odd that no real low pressure wants to take over the North Sea region. Going through tonight's ECM it's either very weak low pressure or a no man's land all the way through. Any ideas as to why that's happening?
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It is shifting east the 24 hour jumps are making it a bit confusing, but between 144 and 168 the secondary low has moved into Genoa and the main one is about to go under imo. Edit: ECM is the Met Office 70% scenario at t192.
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Not much snow in the ECM but it looks great for locking the cold in.
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Still though, a polar vortex lobe forming one day and high pressure the next. Unforgivably bad.
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UKMO the perfect widespread blizzard chart. No further North than that though please!
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It's a decaying front, so will definitely be a case of nowcasting.
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That is a big improvement on yesterday's 12z. Hopefully a case of GFS being 12-24 hours behind the rest.
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Decent agreement between ECM and UKMO this morning, always a good sign. I remember the channel islands being buried in snow sometime in March 2013.
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If you're viewing on wetterzentrale, it's an error, showing an old run at t168 for some reason.
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That strange shortwave to the NW of the UK being killed off on this run, would hope that makes it easier for a clean slide. But when we are looking at that much little detail, this is days away from resolving
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Not much difference between 12z and 18z out to day 4. Atlantic low maybe a tiny bit weaker.
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It's a knifedge whether Atlantic will win. Mean chart particularly the day after that quoted chart shows how close things are.
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Big cluster going mild, big cluster staying cold. Been here countless times with plenty examples of each winning. Hopefully today was just the day that the models fully appreciate how much of a problem the LP could be and hope for Southern corrections from the likes of the ECM in days to come.
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I suggest a look through the 62/63 archives. Mild temporarily winning in the south, and sometimes countrywide, happened a lot. If you want anything more than a week long cold snap you need those close shaves. Personally I'm very happy with ICON and UKMO.
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Compared to 00z run it looks fine, haven't seen 06z though.
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I would think the mean diving back down again simply means they think the, still undercutting, low just goes a bit further North than other members and the cold sets in again when it clears. Remember in these situations the difference between +5 and -5 uppers can be squeezed to a couple hundred miles.
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I make that 2 weeks of -5 uppers or below for much of central/northern England
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Ok, NOW the Scandi High can build
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The less a model run makes of the East Euro/Northwest Russian high, the infinitely better it looks over the UK. Every time.
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GFS 12z for example, t90-t192, UK is in a low pressure system.
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Yes can anyone remember the last time (if ever) a low pressure over the UK delivered a 10 day dry spell?
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Interesting run to put it lightly. FI at day 5.
