Snowy L
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Everything posted by Snowy L
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If you're viewing on wetterzentrale, it's an error, showing an old run at t168 for some reason.
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That strange shortwave to the NW of the UK being killed off on this run, would hope that makes it easier for a clean slide. But when we are looking at that much little detail, this is days away from resolving
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Not much difference between 12z and 18z out to day 4. Atlantic low maybe a tiny bit weaker.
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It's a knifedge whether Atlantic will win. Mean chart particularly the day after that quoted chart shows how close things are.
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Big cluster going mild, big cluster staying cold. Been here countless times with plenty examples of each winning. Hopefully today was just the day that the models fully appreciate how much of a problem the LP could be and hope for Southern corrections from the likes of the ECM in days to come.
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I suggest a look through the 62/63 archives. Mild temporarily winning in the south, and sometimes countrywide, happened a lot. If you want anything more than a week long cold snap you need those close shaves. Personally I'm very happy with ICON and UKMO.
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Compared to 00z run it looks fine, haven't seen 06z though.
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I would think the mean diving back down again simply means they think the, still undercutting, low just goes a bit further North than other members and the cold sets in again when it clears. Remember in these situations the difference between +5 and -5 uppers can be squeezed to a couple hundred miles.
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I make that 2 weeks of -5 uppers or below for much of central/northern England
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Ok, NOW the Scandi High can build
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The less a model run makes of the East Euro/Northwest Russian high, the infinitely better it looks over the UK. Every time.
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GFS 12z for example, t90-t192, UK is in a low pressure system.
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Yes can anyone remember the last time (if ever) a low pressure over the UK delivered a 10 day dry spell?
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Interesting run to put it lightly. FI at day 5.
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Yes this can so easily turn Southwesterly. Scandi High 500 miles further east we get a northerly, Scandi high 500 miles further west we get an easterly, this is an incredibly frustrating run. Possibly just about rescuing a northerly on this run, would be a lot less painful if the Scandi high can just do one and stop being a nuisance.
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Would be nice if the UK low wasn't too far North though, risks sending everything to our Northwest. Yes indecisive Scandi High screwing us over again. We miss out on the northerly and an easterly.
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That Scandi high needs to either make it or go away. This halfway house is ruining the pattern over and to the west of the UK.
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It won't affect us as a subtropical cyclone, but it definitely will affect us as a low pressure system, every model agrees on that. Whether it will continue or end the cold spell is unknown.
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Too close to call, but ideally should at least be losing its perfect spherical shape which ICON seems hellbent on maintaining.
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Benelux ridge... going to make it difficult for Atlantic low to slide, hopefully another diving Svalbard low to put some pressure on it later?
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Day 10 not quite but we get close with both ECM and GFS to having the cold renew again. It's odd actually because they both look set to have the Atlantic low undercut into Europe but then they both hit a roadblock and stay out in the Atlantic.
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To be fair up to 10 days it's very similar to the 12z.
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Wedge to the SouthEast of Greenland so important. Don't know how the rest of the run will go but this looks primed to lock the cold in
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Yes probably won't resolve until at least the beginnings of that South Greenland shortwave are already baked in, 4 days away?
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South Greenland low attaches to the low giving us our cold spell, so that's probably the end of our cold spell on day 9 with the ECM
