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Snowy L

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Everything posted by Snowy L

  1. Snowy L
    Yep as usual we've got the worst of both worlds. Prolong the dry cold just to have a rain event for our troubles.
  2. Snowy L
    Three weeks model watching just for a 2 day cold snap, what a waste. Why is this country allergic to snow.
  3. Snowy L
    Looking at the strat there is zero indication of the PV trying to get back into the Arctic or even reforming in the first place. In fact we still have a strong high pressure in the Greenland/Easy Canada region so it's a bit odd the GFS is so desperate to move the PV back to a normal position when things are still the opposite of normal up above.
  4. Snowy L
    Just 4 out of the 17 going up and of those 4 2 of them come right back down again. Much improved from yesterday.
  5. Snowy L
    It's a complicated one because the enemy for this cold spell and certainly the last one in December is Azores ridging. We actually want an injection of progressiveness in the Atlantic to keep the slider conveyer belt going so that the Azores doesn't get the opportunity to ridge in betwen Atlantic lows. This run demonstrating perfectly how good things can get if we get some but not too much consistent Atlantic energy.
  6. Snowy L
    Give me the GEM please. GFS desperate to repeat the December shambles where we got a mini Euro high allowing the Atlantic in at an unfavourable angle. It's uncanny actually.
  7. Snowy L
    Wow I guess that's what can happen even if you have pesky Iceland shortwaves as long as the Azores High behaves itself and stays far away. Risky but potential for huge snowfalls.
  8. Snowy L
    Yes GFS picked it up on the 19th then went with it for a few days. ECM was having none of it, not even showing northern blocking at all. When ECM finally picked up the signal about a week later than it should have, the GFS had a wobble, but now GFS is on board too.
  9. Snowy L
    This is the Met's favoured outcome to be fair, and it's what lead them to mention possibilities of disruptive snowfall.
  10. Snowy L
    What does ATR (purple bars) mean on the top right chart?
  11. Snowy L
    240 looks ready to sink the vortex on us! Pink blob definitely moving in a Southwest direction
  12. Snowy L
    Three of the best snowfalls I've ever had came in March. And I certainly didn't worry too much about the sun's strength when I had a foot of snow dumped on me each of those times.
  13. Snowy L
    Plausible way to miss out on cold. Absolutely comical. Why is there a huge vortex in the place it's just been overwhelmingly ejected from?
  14. Snowy L
    UK may or may not get lucky, but any model showing lack of Northern blocking in Greenland region + deep dartboard lows ejecting into the Atlantic never made sense from 2nd week of March onwards.
  15. Snowy L
    Deep dartboard lows in the middle of a vortex free zone, highs not retrogressing to a vortex free zone.... Models have been ridiculous last few days. I'm guessing the 1st warming flushing the westerlies down has been interfering with the models, clouding and biasing their judgement for what happens after this?
  16. Snowy L
    Looking at those charts, would think the dartboard low in Atlantic will be weakened in coming runs. There is no observable vortex to support such a low.
  17. Snowy L
    Long overdue improvements to the models, not sure what the ECM has been on all week before this afternoon. We have high pressure near us, then when the downwelling of Easterlies happens in 1st week of March it kept wanting to sink the high instead of retrogressing it? Never made sense. Retrogressing high going to the wrong place is something that could go wrong and plausible, a sinking high just isn't plausible at all.
  18. Snowy L
    The first downwelling of the SSW is not expected to happen until early March so naturally any strong northern blocking should not be expected until day 10 onwards.
  19. Snowy L
    Yes that one really was a textbook SSW. Two short downwelling pulses followed by a third longer one in March. Can't find the composite graph, but it matched it very well.
  20. Snowy L
    Our patchy 1cm cover has done well to last 5 days, but a lot of thawing today. Only the very sheltered spots keeping the snow.
  21. Snowy L
    Nice surprise this morning with another small top up. Not much but it's better than nothing.
  22. Snowy L
    We have snow! Given everything a nice dusting so far. Not the best photos ever but coming down nicely.
  23. Snowy L
    Wish the game tonight was being played in Liverpool, some intense ppn heading in.
  24. Snowy L
    Surely this next one can't miss you Matt. Hopefully it survives the journey here but the fizzle zone has been Uttoxeter so far today.
  25. Snowy L
    UKMO definitely fancying the showers to form a trough early hours of Wednesday. Not showing up on GFS or ECM though.
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