Snowy L

Looks like something more organised tomorrow evening. Hopefully survives by the time it reaches us. Met Office app has given me some snow symbols for the first time.

Yes I remember December cold spell and understand why it was mostly dry. Thickness wasn't low and no wind were the reasons given, we have both of those things in our favour now. Still bone dry for most inland places. Getting ridiculous now. No doubt the second it becomes too warm for snow after Friday we get soaked again.

So despite a giant low over us and incredibly low thickness it's still looking bone dry on the days it's cold enough for snow? This is the worst winter in living memory for me, at least the other snowless winters didn't bother with hope.

S is phonetically pronounced as ess, so as it starts with a vowel sound, you use an.

While it's a good warm up, it's not affecting the vortex yet. Still intact as one fairly spherical vortex and close to the North Pole

Well friendlier green colours return to Canada again, so would hope it would calm the jet stream down at least.

Vortex couldn't be happier though. Nice perfectly spherical purple blob close to the North Pole. Can't see what Met Office are seeing with any sustained cold, but let's hope they're right.

No coming back from this I'm afraid. What a waste of potential as the door firmly shuts on winter probably for the next month at least.

Last minute adjustment to Sunday's low so now we have been robbed of the 1 hour of transient snow too. This is without doubt the worst extended cold spell I have ever lived through. Delivered absolutely nothing other than soaring heating costs.

Already -5C here

Quite the northerly

Think it's harsh to allege that there's some deeper purpose to confuse people when using it. It's a long used term and I've seen it being used here too for years. The Weather Centre: East Based v. West Based Negative NAO THEWEATHERCENTRE.BLOGSPOT.COM Home to critically-acclaimed winter outlooks, our Weather Models page, and near-daily detailed, informative, and easy-to-read posts. I've seen loads of terms I've never heard of by the seasoned pros here but instead of accuse them of being purposefully arrogant I've just googled the term.

Difficult to tell because on this specific run we are getting quite the push of heights from the Arctic. May be enough to push everything South.

GFS does have some support from its ensembles, they have shifted far cooler. Also for the bin doesn't mean ignore, basically just saying unhappy with the run.

ECM inexplicably stalls the UK low between Sunday-Tuesday. Next Atlantic low will inevitably catch up so it's a run for the bin.

Compared to the monster Iberian highs we were seeing last night, it's a start.

Fair to say UKMO and GFS look broadly similar at day 6? As FebBlizzard said let's hope we have some GEFS support for what is hopefully yet another twist.

Looking at the next low in the Atlantic, can we get a slider in time for Christmas? The reliability of the models must be at an all time low at the moment. Icon has a reformed vortex at day 7, GFS has cross polar flow.

Is it not the case that heights to our South are causing the West Based -NAO, not the other way round? Northern blocking wants to push Southeast but it's impossible because Euro highs are forcing lows to stay near West/northwest UK so Greenland high takes the path of least resistance which is to go west.

You don't get cold with strong Iberian Heights, it's as simple as that.

Unfortunately looking pretty hopeless now with ECM and GFS both agreeing on strong Iberian heights and southwesterlies just before Christmas. Can only hope we get a rare sudden transfer of those heights up to Scandi.

ECM doesn't kill the South/West Euro heights so only one place that next Atlantic low is going... Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - ECMWF Europe 12Z WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE Wetterkarten ECMWF Europe 12Z

It really is so unlucky with the timing of the Euro High taking steroids because that NH profile is even better than it was last week

Edit: Delete please, doubleposted somehow.

16:40 for UKMO 168