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Snowy L

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Everything posted by Snowy L

  1. Snowy L
    On the flip side dew points and surface temperatures are looking good for the Monday event, at least the first part of it.
  2. Snowy L
    Yep, the 3 best snow events I can remember all came from Atlantic fronts with uppers of between 0 and -2, vitally the wind was coming from the south/south East so cold air from the rest of England was mixing. Funnily enough every time we get a Northwesterly/Northerly with -5 or below uppers the showes always fall as rain or sleet here.
  3. Snowy L
    Chart posted on the previous page shows uppers of -6 for almost all of the region except for the West coast at 9pm tommorow and even that area is under -5 uppers.
  4. Snowy L
    Going to be very close. Do these models take into account the wind direction? Uppers and dewpoints are fine for the entire region and there won't be any wind from the Irish Sea direction. BBC forecasts have updated and it's upgraded my area to an all sleet event. East Liverpool seems to be the dividing line between rain and snow at the moment. St Helens for example is forecast a near all snow event.
  5. Snowy L
    Has any TV forecast acknowledged the existence of this ppn for Saturday night or are they all too scared?
  6. Snowy L
    BBC weather showing 8 consecutive hours of rain sometimes heavy, but not one mention of precipitation in the text forecast. BBC and Met Office really do cop out when it comes to forecasting snow events. 3 days away is ok, but to do this just 1 day before is weak.
  7. Snowy L
    12z still showing the ppn for Saturday night. Over to the Met Office.
  8. Snowy L
    6c here when it's not raining. This is just average January weather.
  9. Snowy L
    Agreed the one marginal event Liverpool always seems to do well in is one where the wind is southerly or southeasterly, usually from a front coming in from the west. Hopefully the South and East get a good frost tonight.
  10. Snowy L
    snow rain and hail here. I've noticed these events becoming more and more marginal through the years. I think Christmas 2004 would be rain/sleet here if it happened today.
  11. Snowy L
    Sleet here in South Liverpool.
  12. Snowy L
    Mixing between rain and sleet here.
  13. Snowy L
    That's not what I meant, most winter forecasts went for a mild first half to winter because the vortex was so strong in November. The impossible part is to forecast what happens after the first half of winter.
  14. Snowy L
    It was very easy to forecast a mild December and first half of January based on the strength of the vortex at all levels in November.
  15. Snowy L
    Looks like a respite in energy at the 7-10 day range. We've had the pulse of energy in the 3rd week of December which has currently had a small effect, though most of it has been deflected by the monster vortex. Then we are forecast another pulse in the day 10+ range if the NW Eurasian high hopefully verifies.
  16. Snowy L
    13c here, the same as an average July night. Unreal.
  17. Snowy L
    Latest Cohen https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Still expects a significant weakening of the vortex in January.
  18. Snowy L
    Temperature still rising here. Currently double the December average at 14c, just 70 miles away in Leeds it's 1c. Crazy gradient.
  19. Snowy L
    Decent warming on the 12z warming the North Pole by around 10-15c and by the end of the run there are 3 distinct warming events. That first warming is making its way to the High Res too which is encouraging. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015121012/gfsnh-10-384.png?12
  20. Snowy L
    And just as I said that a sleet/hail shower has started
  21. Snowy L
    Happy to not be in the firing line of the streamers, temperature is falling away here and I need it to as it's not favourable here on the coast for later tonight. Currently 3c dew point of -1.
  22. Snowy L
    Wind northwesterly now, dew point down to 1c, temp is still 7c though
  23. Snowy L
    Looks like it's GFS vs ECM again. GFS has won pretty much every time these last 2 winters, not getting my hopes up.
  24. Snowy L
    Good to see Cohen not discouraged by the unfortunate West QBO/very low solar flux combination. Thing is this is the only factor working against the possibility of an SSW this winter. Sea ice, SAI, El Nino/West QBO combination all in our favour.
  25. Snowy L
    2014/15 had a very high rate. I know we didn't get the SSW, but did we at least get a strong siberian high during that winter?
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