Polar Bear
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Posts posted by Polar Bear
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11 hours ago, karlos1983 said:
Yep thanks Dorsetbred and after reading every line burst into ... and in the naked light I saw, 10,000 people maybe more, and then carried on oblivious to my surroundings!
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11 hours ago, tomjwlx said:
Welcome back Atlantic my old friend nice to see you and hope you will be sticking around for the next 3 months!
As much as I like a good Atlantic low.. no to 3 months of it.. if we have to have a mild winter then a sprinkle of frost at least here and there as well.. it may feel like a rural myth but decent cold and freezing weather is said to ward off certain bugs and things.. for those with animals especially. Plus less of that flipping mud.
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35 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:
Morning All the heavier rain seems to be hanging in the channel at the moment, currently 6.5C, and 1.5mm of rainfall. With and apparent E to W flow I’m not yet convinced too much will come ashore!
Morning - Yep seems to be focusing on south coast literally.. and we may get a spray in passing if that.. Coldfingers near Bognor is looking to be getting most of it..
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Morning. Bright and frosty this morn. Currently at -3.7 (courtesy of thatcham weather station) . suspect more rural will be lower
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Seems we did have snow
last night.. too tired though to see it.
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9 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Yeah a fellow course mate said it was sleeting too. Funny enough I am studying Meteorology at the Uni so I've had a good look round the weather facilities so far!
Brilliant!! It is incredible the facilities. I was blown away... ..
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13 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Now at Reading Uni it's difficult to know what regional chat I should be in. Nevertheless it is beginning to precipitate with a moderate intensity here, being on top floor of a halls of residence makes it difficult to see but looks to be a tad sleety.
Stick to this regional thread.. SE is a bit more Landan Town and Garden of England folk. I work in Reading live in Newbury so you’ll be fine.
It was sleeting earlier this eve in Reading, so prob still is. If you at the Uni they’ve amazing weather site there and not least the IEA department!
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On 17/11/2018 at 16:24, Leon1 said:
Should probably cut my lawn once more as well, acer tree finally dropping it's leaves in beautiful yellows and oranges and reds. Since it cleared earlier it has been a lovely autumn day, quite chilly in the SE winds but sunny and a spectacular sunset!
Ha did my acer leaves on sat as all over the place. Interestingly a FB memory reminded me the tree was in full crimson leaf exactly this time last year. This year same time most of the leaves are on the floor..
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8 hours ago, Mapantz said:
Depressing once again. Currently 13.2°C
I've just had fun putting a flea tablet down my cats throat.
Oh don’t envy you that job.. my cat used to properly swear at me if I had to worm tablet her. For fleas I got the flea drop things which go on the back of their neck.. just make sure they can’t run outside after.. poor things.
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Weather like today is just true to the November Poem..
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4 hours ago, Mapantz said:
Afternoon all! Temp got up to 14.7°C today, in the sunshine. It felt pretty warm considering the time of year.
I had a Facebook memory today from November 2011. Same great sunshine and maybe slightly warmer. Now I’ve seen that memory, all comes flooding back ( it was the last winter before my old trusty steed passed so hence is now very vivid) and the weather today was indeed just like then. So yes warm considering the time of year but it has happened before for me.
it’s great.
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One thing is bugging me. I work in transport planning and we have a modelling team. Same principles as weather modelling, and diff models predict forecasts etc on a network etc.
Whenever a model is re run with a new scenario or data the output is an update run. It is never an upgrade no matter how good the data is going on. So why every time there is a new run or a comparison is it called an upgrade? Or is it the upgrade just the opinion of the viewer?
Odd post I know, am sorry. Just curious.
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Actually, you’ve all raised some valid points tonight. Must stock up on gin and chocolate for this roller coaster ride to the end of Nov. And for either a short frost, or more or an Atlantic low.. who knows yet. I’ll be well happy by then whatever
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13 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:
THE GLOBAL SYNOPTIC DYNAMIC MODEL (GSDM)
That was a superb post Tams @Tamara. Spot on as usual and providing some very sensible balance to some of the hype expressed by a few posters on this thread (far too early to say whether the upcoming cold spell will last for weeks on end). You came in for some very unfair criticism and Ed Berry and the GSDM have been thoroughly quoted out of context. Rather than get into this unfortunate ongoing debate on this forum over the relative merits of teleconnection science, perhaps we can let readers decide for themselves. I have been in touch with Ed Berry during this year and had some fascinating exchanges with him. In May, he sent me a link to his YouTube video on his outstanding one hour seminar presentation on the GSDM.
Feb - this will answer your question in full
I posted exclusively about this on the Teleconnections thread on two forums back on May 24th. I copy my opening paragraphs below (marginally edited to be current):
What is the GSDM and how does it help with subseasonal weather forecasts? - A Review of This Presentation
This specialist "Teleconnections" thread was set up to examine and learn more about the main drivers and influences on the broader global weather patterns and how these drivers interact with each other and which are the more dominant ones. Some of the posts have already focused on the great importance of understanding the major role played by AAM (Atmospheric Angular Momentum) and the torques. Several of us have discussed the GSDM (Global Synoptic Dynamic Model) which was jointly developed by leading meteorological scientists Edward K Berry and Dr Klaus Weickmann while they were working at NOAA in the late 1990s and earlier years of this century. They also devised the GWO (Global Wind Oscillation) as a way of plotting and measuring the amounts of relative global AAM, FT (frictional torque) and MT (mountain torque) at different phases of the cycle. They became leaders in this specialist research which has been used to assist in understanding impacts on global weather patterns and upcoming changes up to a few weeks ahead.
Unfortunately, they left NOAA several years ago (in 2015) and it seemed that their vitally important work had ceased with a great loss to advances in meteorological science. We have been trying to track them down and recently found an email address for Ed Berry. I sent Ed an email and I was delighted when he replied almost immediately. He explained that Klaus Weickmann retired several years ago. Edward K. Berry (Senior Weather-Climate Scientist) continues his excellent work on the GSDM and retains his lifelong passion to develop the model and its meteorological applications further. We have exchanged a few more emails with Ed and he is very supportive of the work that we are doing on this thread. I hope that we can persuade Ed to post on here in due course. (Ed Berry should not be confused with another Ed Berry who is Dr Edwin Berry and a climatologist)
I asked Ed if he could assist us with obtaining past AAM, FT and MT data (which had been withdrawn from the NOAA Maproom archives) as well as more comprehensive current data and I explained to him that we had been in touch with Victor Gensini (Assistant Professor, Department of Geographic and Atmospheric Sciences, Northern Illinois University) who has been working on and producing some of this missing data - several of our posts include examples of Victor's charts. Ed told me that he was in touch with Victor and they had discussed some of this work. Victor hosted an AMS seminar recently (American Meteorology Society - Student Chapter, College of DuPage, Chicago on 28th March, 2018) and Ed gave a one hour presentation on the GSDM (as shown in the title to this post). Ed emailed a link to his presentation last week (May) and I have already viewed it three times, learning a little more about the GSDM each time. He gave me full permission to review it on here. Firstly, here's the link to the Research Portal entry where I placed it. it will take you to a short summary with a direct link to the full presentation. Just click on this title: What is the GSDM and how does it help with subseasonal weather forecasts? - A Review of This Presentation
It is a brilliant seminar with clear charts and explanations, ending with a question and answer session. For anyone wishing to learn more about AAM, the torques, the GWO and how they interact with other major teleconnections like phases of the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) then this is absolutely essential viewing. I also strongly recommend this for more advanced viewers as well. The presentation is right up-to-date and includes the 2018 SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event and links to key issues like climate change. Much of the presentation is slanted towards the North American climate and US weather patterns but it has a global significance and includes impacts on both hemispheres. I show a small selection of the charts from Ed's presentation below to whet your appetite: (see note below)
My full post is on page 7 of the Teleconnections thread and contains a selections of the charts from the presentation. Here's the link to that page (just click on the chart below):
We can all learn from this presentation and I sincerely hope that some of the misunderstanding of this vital part of the science will now be alleviated.
I will only rarely post on this thread during the busy winter period. I will be on several of the specialist threads, including the Teleconnections thread, the Arctic Sea Ice and Stats thread (where I've recently posted on Greenland and Global Glacial Ice) and Antarctica thread (where I also produced a long post) as well as on the South West regional thread (when things get interesting locally). I shall also be very busy building up the Research Portal on the US forum (where I'm also a member) and I will also cross post on both forums where it is appropriate. David
Great to see you on here and thank you for this. Enjoyed reading it, and will try to digest. See you soon on the SW regional.
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7 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:
That looks like another .. has to be a Cornish one. Cornish Crab Pasty time.
And on that subject.. looks like Newbury shortly will be deluged.
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3 hours ago, matt111 said:
What do you call that one? There was a crabs claw trying to eat Kent the other day now this, what's going on?
That looks like another .. has to be a Cornish one. Cornish Crab Pasty time.
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Wow. Think rain stopped bang on at midnight here and a daily total 10.4mm (courtesy of thatcham weather station)
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24 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:
I have though it's not too cold so the thermostat hasn't kicked in
Naughty . .. don’t let them fat utility company cats get more off you..
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14 minutes ago, coldfingers1 said:
Well here on the South Coast this is the strongest storm we have had for at least a year, usually we are too far east to experience too strong a gale. Currently mean wind speed F9 gusting Force 10. Much higher than they forecast for our area. Even the shipping forecast only gave a F8 for this area. I hope not too many boats have been caught out by this. Listening to the wind raging outside now I wouldn't want to even be on the sea front never mind on a boat.
Just noticed Netweather Max gusts currently showing 66mph for Portland, a tad more than a trifle breezy there I think.
Think it’s cos it is a direct southerly not a south westerly?.. south westerly you / we (my parents too) get a bit of shelter from the land points to the east.. southerly different story.. it was indeed some years ago my parents had a southerly like this. ( Dad is an ex sailor so knows his weather!)
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Just now, jtay said:
Speaking of which, here's the thoughts of the boys and girls from torro...
TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2018/008
A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 17:20 GMT on Friday 9th November 2018
Valid from/until: 17:20 - 03:00 GMT Friday 9th/Saturday 10th November 2018 on for the following regions of the
United Kingdom & Ireland:SW, Cent S and SE England
Midlands
E Anglia
SE Wales
Channel Is
**Note that TCD 007 still in effect for Ireland/N Ireland until 19:00GMT.
THREATS
Wind gusts to 65mph; isolated tornadoes; isolated CG lightning
Wow... thanks Jtay.
You never know.. ....i don't have any red shoes though.. how about a beautiful pair of Dior's .. will they work?
... starting to pick up and get a bit feisty here.. bit more whooshing, whistling and rustling outside happening .
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10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
48mph just recorded. Not bad for here.
Gosh .. hope not through your house Mapantz... ? ... keep those red shoes on on and remember this saying "there's no place like home "
Nothing like that I don't think here. . Ah so apparently we have had a high of 37mph at 7pm ish and now we are back to 17mph.. so not much
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One downside of this storm... getting repeatedly slapped in the face by the leaves which are flying off the trees
on that subject anyone else think we've a lot more colour in the trees this year. Lots of yellow too feels like - anyway to me.. maybe cos we have had such lovely still and sunny weather to date the leaves have stayed on longer to change colour? Dunno ...
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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Feeling very cosy tonight. Windows open, gales, heavy rain, Emmerdale.
Hope you've not got the heating on with the windows open!!
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1 minute ago, coldfingers1 said:
Good to see you too Polar Bear. I have lurked a bit the last year but had too many health problems to do much more than that. Getting older I suppose but I never lose my love of storms or snow. Fingers crossed for some snow this winter!
Oh bless you. Sorry to hear that you've not been well. You keep that love of storms girl and yes fingers crossed for that snow. Looking forward to watching those events with you on the forum!
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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 21/05/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
Am not sure, as have been stuck in oriface all day but think the winds may have picked up.. l have a scout of the local weather page. It could just be the dishwasher...