Ross Andrew Hemphill
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Posts posted by Ross Andrew Hemphill
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32 minutes ago, Greeny said:
If you mean with the skew-t, then go onto Pivatol weather, go on forecast models for the UK, I think you can look at any of them to click your location for the chart.
32 minutes ago, Tim said:Yeah just use Pivotal weather
Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather
WWW.PIVOTALWEATHER.COMView GFS weather model forecast map image for 2 m AGL Dew Point in United Kingdom on pivotalweather.com.Thank you! Is there any easy way to learn to read them, or at least the basic parameters for identifying storms/severe weather?
I’ve added the chart for close to my location for Thursday evening for a bit of context
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Hmm the GFS 12z is doing something different with that low in the Atlantic at +72
edit: quite a difference in the jet too, 12z first
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12 minutes ago, Greeny said:
Now that's a tasty looking Skew-T if it ever stayed like this (with sounding location and dewpoint temps) EL level nice and high too..
My area in Norwich not looking so favourable at the moment but as it is far out, we know it's likely to change. At least lets hope if and wherever gets to see storms, they stay potent.
Is there a way I can check for my location?
I’ve missed this convective thread I stay away mostly because of jealousy because I never seem to get a storm as usual the *potential* is there on the models, but as has already been stated today, the risk will almost certainly be shifted east to avoid most of Scotland.
It’s good to be back, however! Happy heatwave
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The GFS is certainly a bit warmer for Scotland on Thursday, mid twenties rather than 21C and some storms to boot!
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2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:
looks stronger and faster moving in to me
Oh never mind then initially looked weaker to me
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The low looks a bit weaker on the GFS 12z or is it just me?
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2 hours ago, Bradowl said:
I was 12, it was only sleet down here but I recall some cricket getting abandoned because of Snow, I think it might have been at Buxton.
I was -24! in all seriousness, snow in June is absolutely crazy! Only in the UK climate as they say...
Restrictions being loosened in Scotland as of tomorrow means I can get back to playing tennis! The models surely are spoiling us with all this dry weather, and the cool down it’s showing for next week will be welcome after this week’s heat up here!
stay safe
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An upgrade as far as the GFS 12z is concerned for potential storm Dennis
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Storm Dennis this weekend? Looking nasty once again across the whole of the UK
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she’s really tightening up near the centre!
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Flood warning coastal parts of Inverclyde! I believe this is the first flood WARNING in my area since Hurricane Bawbag
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New amber warning but still waiting for the amber wind to be extended into Scotland, been hinted at already on tv a few times
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2 hours ago, Nick L said:
Finally. Although what the hell they're playing at not including the Central Belt of Scotland I have no idea. Could be 70-80mph gusts through heavily populated areas.
This has confused me too. Sean Batty mentioned the possibility of a sting jet formation so maybe they’re waiting till nearer the time to issue an amber?
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1 hour ago, ancientsolar said:
those whiter areas over the Welsh hills and mountains .. and NW England.. + Swathes of Souther Scotland ,.
I remember a forecaster once mentioning when wind is forced through the valleys and hills .. it can speed up .. the hills acting like a funnel .. or us trying to blow air through a strawThis is very true!
Storm Ciara’s path is looking awfully similar to one a few years ago which hit Scotland direct west to east, with the winds funnelling through the lowlands peaking 90mph+ widely, with a top gust of 105mph-ish not far from me.
Definitely exciting but also worrying...
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Incredible warmth continuing on the GFS
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Come on guys, how many times have we been told to keep it civil in here!! We’re all a little frustrated about the huge teasing from the models over the past two winters, but we need to remember that we cannot attack others for their opinion or posting cold charts from FI, I mean it’s model discussion after all!!
I don’t post much here for the simple fact that I’m unsure of how to use the terminology properly some of the time, but also because I’m afraid of being shouted at!
I hope the failed cold snaps and spells over the past two winters show us all that we cannot take anything as gospel until close range, and until we have cross model agreement (especially the UKMO!!).
Mid teens are possible in the next few days which is pretty exceptional, wondering if we could have another winter temperature record falling like last February, now that was something else!
Merry Christmas and all the best for 2020, here’s to a 1947 repeat and/or a blazing summer!
edit: forgot to say that it’s only December, still two (maybe three) months of winter remaining!
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Interesting...
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ICON giving a good spell of snow with some to low levels in Scotland (central belt) and maybe N England
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6 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:
Is it not always on a knife edge at this time of year, then the PV gets its act together and the Atlantic comes roaring back for 3 months with cold blips in between ???
It’s always a crucial time in model watching I guess, wondering whether the cold comes into the reliable or it’s washed away by the coupling of the strong strat vortex and it’s trop partner. You always have the chance of a SSW but it’s never guaranteed with that either, just have to hope for the best.
Does have 2009/2010 vibes but was the strat vortex as strong then?
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Cold setting in early perhaps??
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5 hours ago, jordan smith said:
ECM output for around 9 to 10 days away so likely to change alot but a very interesting and deep low pressure system is shown effecting England and Wales some very windy and wet weather even snow progged for northern parts ofcourse very unlikely to verify but an interesting output to say the least.
Reminds me of Winter 2017/18 pre BFTE when the jet was a tad south and the models were throwing snow events at us like nobody’s business. I know it’s October but looks similar, and I can’t remember what October 2017 was like lol can anyone enlighten me?
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12 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:
Probably a silly question but why has he not weakened at all now hes interacted with land
I’d say it’s due to the fact that the Bahamas are very low, not much above 30ft ASL so there’s not much around to really disrupt it.
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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Now I’m never getting a storm since you’ve said that!