Ross Andrew Hemphill
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Posts posted by Ross Andrew Hemphill
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Might get a wee surprise tomorrow (albeit very brief) of some snow on the leading edge of the front.
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4 hours ago, damianslaw said:
Just focusing on the near time - there could be a surprise fairly low level albeit shortlived snowfall event on Monday in central parts of Scotland at least - as we see a frontal feature moving into cold level air.. with the aid of evaporative cooling, I won't be surprised if a few places with modest height - say about 250-300m sees a bit of a wet cover during Monday, before the snow turns quickly to rain. Nothing unusual, but will be interesting to see. Chances will increase if the front slows down, and there are signs it may be about to do this.
Into next week proper, it looks mostly changeable, trending cold again in the second half as polar/arctic maritime air once again embeds itself, which could mean it is the fourth weekend in a row with a northerly feed.
Longer term - as I said the other day, expect a few more twists and turns in the models, before they settle down on a consistent theme early next week.
This is what I thought when I saw the 850s for Monday when that front moves in, let's hope so!
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2 hours ago, knocker said:
Not much point in looking at this in isolation but as I was just passing through, so to speak.
The 06 10-15 GEFS anomaly merely illustrates be wary or jumping the gun once again It has the previously discussed amplification in the Atlantic but the overall NH pattern is such (ridging across the pole being an integral part of it) not only facilitates the creation of the strong meridional pattern that stops any west-east improvement but also the distinct possibility of a cut off low in the vicinity of the UK with no pathway for CAA from the north As mentioned last evening this sort of evolution requires precise alignments. Anyway just a passing thought
Is a cut-off low over us a bad thing? Surely it could drag cold air in?
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11 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:
I totally agree I don't believe it makes slightest difference at all.
Yes it's questionable for UK winters definitely.
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7 minutes ago, Seasonality said:
Is there any evidence that backs this Ross?
I'm sure that October 2010 and 2012 had decent falls in Scandinavia, but that's all the evidence I have.
I got this idea from members here discussing it, and also from Gavin's winter updates over the past few years. It's of course not the one thing that needs to materialise for us to have a cold winter, but I guess it tells us that the Atlantic is less zonal than it should be if there's snow there, or at least a more negative tilt to the jet towards NW Europe.
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1 hour ago, Katrine Basso said:
Here is the latest snow and ice chart. Scandinavian snow has spread quite a bit in the last 24 hours.
Snow in Scandinavia is KEY, it's not Eurasian snow overall imo.
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12 hours ago, SteveB said:
I'm fairly sure the date is the 28th which was yesterday!
I swear that it's showing me Monday Oct 23rd, strange...
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11 hours ago, SteveB said:
Latest chart,
Still looking healthy, ice also looking good.
Lets hope no horrible mild south westerlies set up over the coming few weeks to push back the snow.
Look at the date, that was last Monday!
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Models cooling down the UK into November is looking interesting, although once it's within T+100 I'll take notice more (well I'll try not to take notice until then!).
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3 minutes ago, Andy92 said:
Just a crisp packet blower in Glasgow
Agreed! We're used to what we've got right now (maybe 60mph), hoped for more but it's only October!
Praying for a quick recovery in Ireland, really wild day for them.
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Breeze has disappeared here and the sun is back out! I know that it's gonna be different in a few hours time though...
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Has she weakened? xc weather doesn't look that exciting anymore
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Getting breezy here too but nothing notable, sun was out too about 10 minutes ago.
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Not a breath of air currently. I can hear the low "roar" of the rain outside though depicting its heaviness, which is quite relaxing
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Gust of 67mph in the Isles of Scilly, Roches Point and Saint Mary's
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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:
The following residents are without power
Ballincollig 754
Bishopstown 530
Riverstown 620
Douglas 990
And the worst isn't even here yet! This is bad...
Woke up at about 9:15am and thought it was about 7am because of how dark it is! That Saharan dust is playing its part, along with the cloud and rain.
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1 minute ago, Wavey50 said:
It does look like there would now have to be quite a sharp eastern diversion in its track for its centre to make a direct hit on the Irish southern coast.
I think it's supposed to make a turn towards the Irish Coast before landfall, although anything can happen really.
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Definitely still a hurricane in my opinion,, still a closed centre. Anyone else have thoughts on this?
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1 minute ago, coldfingers1 said:
It certainly looks like it one here! Wow, I am thankful for that but still feel very sorry for anyone in Ireland who may be seriously impacted from this! It looks like the computer models may have got it correct after all! Just me that is mistrusting of modern technology. Blame it on pensioner bias! LOL.
I'm sure it was forecast to do that, and then dive more eastwards before landfall.
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1 minute ago, Daniel* said:
Has a hurricane ever made landfall in Iberia? it makes me think in the future this may be possible.
Yes I'm sure one did, the name escapes me though
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Jesus Christ I need some paracetamol after reading the latest here, but what a stonker of an 18z!
This chopping and changing within a few days of now is really crazy, just shows how hard blocking can be to forecast.