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Ross Andrew Hemphill

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Posts posted by Ross Andrew Hemphill

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    Running the risk of being termed a 'straw clutcher', the late stages of the GFS really do show some mouth-watering synoptics.  Of course the outcome won't be an exact match but there's a consistency with its FI output that gives some cause for optimism.  Allied to that, the similarities between the ECM and GFS 240 charts are notable, we could just be heading for a cracking start to winter 2018/19.

    It's been posted several times already, but it's worth showing again.  Superb chart!

    gfsnh-0-384.png?12

    Could it be possible that the massive strat warming last Feb is still having some ramifications?

    Given how crazy 2018 has been since the SSW, it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s still having some sort of effect but not a direct one of course. 

    Good signs in FL, as long as the models hold onto the blocking signal nearer the time then there’s lots to be positive about. 

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, weirpig said:

    Eastern Block still holding firm  with depressions in the Atlantic being driven North.  Then later in the run  High still present  with Atlantic lows diving on a more southerly route.  Still nothing of note  for cold lovers.  Of course still very early.  

    There’s definitely something of note for cold lovers considering that block is forcing the jet south, nice building blocks but no cold imminent which is okay! I’d rather have a few weeks transition if it means a long lasting, severe cold spell ?️

    • Like 6

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    GFS 6z tends to keep the jet away to the south of the uk, but more importantly doesn’t look as strong as it did on the whole in the 0z when exiting the US/Newfoundland. Subsequently this leaves a lot more high pressure around (or at least weaker troughs) with a much greater chance of colder weather, especially in the North. 

    Only one run of course!! 

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Snowy L said:

    If we establish the block I think fears of it being too early will fade quickly. That Greenland High in the 06z GFS for example is only 10 days before the cold spell of 2010 started. Scandinavia looks like it will cool down quite a bit during the next week or so too.

    Classic example of get the pattern set in, and the cold will follow. It may seem too early but it’s happened before so it can happen again!

    Storm Callum - Atlantic Storm 3

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    Question folks.. According to the GFS (and earlier BBC) the rain should let up in an hour or two.. 

    But according to the radar, this stuff has almost no way to head north without drenching me most of the day.. 

    https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

    ..

    What are your own thoughts. 

    It was supposed to brighten up here late morning and into the afternoon according to the BBC, but instead there was a deluge for a few hours (BBC were also still showing the rain to be further east than it was). 

    Definitely doing what it wants, much more rain tomorrow probably than anticipated for my area anyway.

    Storm Callum - Atlantic Storm 3

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    8 hours ago, Ross90 said:

    The met have been steadily reducing expected wind speeds for central Scotland over the last day or so with top gusts only around 45mph here which is barely worth a yellow warning.Ali had gusts to 65mph where i am and unless there's a big upgrade i can't see this storm getting to that level at least not through central Scotland.

    Looking like a non event for us in terms of wind, but serious in terms of rainfall after all that we’ve had lately.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

    In all this current mildness I should know better but looking at FI for a probable (not) Icelandic origination chill around the 18th.

    h500slp.thumb.png.317f25e72b9d852ef5a16cfd0480e6fa.png

    h500sffffffffffffflp.thumb.png.264624d4484f94b17ffe1cff7edc1323.png

    Nice to see heights up towards Svalbard, heading into Greenland (yellows and oranges ). Low pressure heading into mainland Europe is good too (trying to undercut)

     

    If only it would appear in the reliable!!

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    thought 'outlier' meant miles on it's own? looks not far off other ensembles there? but agree sadly horrible NW'lys more likely, vile feeling freezing wind at 6 degrees, cannot imagine anyone wanting that (south)

    Nothing wrong with seeing the autumn season rolling in, much better than mild and humid muck if you ask me. It’s been way too warm for too long now, can go and never come back for all I care... 

    But anyway, high pressure really can’t stay away for long can it! Always seems to nudge its way back into the reliable.

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 2
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