jvenge

I think it is probably related to the starting temperature prior to the shot and the amount of time it takes for those uppers to do its work at the ground level.

ECM from this morning has it between 3-6. So seems the max is used on that forecast, as opposed to the min or something in the middle.

There appears to be the wrong type of sledging taking place in here...

Its showing as snow on the regional service section of ECM. Quite far out to think much about though. Control and EPS mean less keen on the depths the operational goes for.

Checked the regional and global surface. Looks right. Just keep in mind thats accumuated (fallen) over the time period and it doesnt mean it fell as fluffy white snow and at that depth or that it stuck around. Thats before we get to looking at precipitation at T144, let alone snow...

And the 0z from the GFS brings a northernly again for the UK. Chalk and cheese with the ECM 12z. ECM to have major egg on its face this morning? Or GFS to back down on the 6z or 12z? No idea. Id usually go with the ECM, but seeing how disinterested the GEFS 12 and 18 were, now the 0z GFS...

Well. Im too tired to wait the control and EPS. Ill check the 0z tomorrow instead. Something tells me the 18z will be eagerly awaited here tonight.

You don't like Uncle Bartlett? Sure, he drinks a lot and starts fights, but a decent guy. Anyway. There is only one member of the GEFS showing anything like that. Can almost the ENTIRE GEFS be that wrong? It is a brave man to bet against the ECM at t120 though.

ECM Control showing a potent northerly from t192 to t240. Seems to want to reload it later in the run as well, although a mild interlude in-between. ECM Mean is not an adament supporter of this, but one can see that there is likely a cluster of some sorts showing it. One imagines there is also one showing fairly toasty temperatures as well...

Promisingly wet? Or windy?

Will be the next few days and it rained the past 4 days as well. Such is weather

Getting there a different way is just the same as switching between mild and cold. Really dont understand this weird Operational Day 10 obsession. Nothing set in stone. Ensembles show that well enough.

Hopefully Man with Beard will post clusters later, but Id say the Operational has reasonable support from its members and control, which is positively toasty for a time when the GFS shows a northerly. Looks quite changable after t240. Will leave it there and have a peak tomorrow.

Quite. Sidney liking the EPS control and mean? Some toasty uppers there.

So? Its got there a different way each time as well. And it runs 4 times a day! Ensembles have been a mess from T144 each run and its control going in different directions. Consistency is in the eye of the beerholder. I couldn't care less which verifies, but it does irk me when people turn GFS into a hero on Wednesday and then laugh at it come Friday. While smugly saying ECM is the top model. One can predict when these days come. Its the days when the GFS shows what the cold brigade want and then vice versa.

You mean deleting 90% of the posts? I confess. I didn't care enough this evening and had a chuckle at the comments before even checking the ECM. Apparently GFS is the consistent model, though. Nothing to see here.

Have a tea. Check the control in an hour. Check the EPS. Ignore the 18z ;-) chill. Tis only model output.

Oh. Grit order cancelled again?

Lol. Where is this GFS consistent fairytale coming from?

I'm generally of the opinion that means are useless unless you can see how they were made up. We have posters giving more insights into ECM members than we had in previous years. How I personally use the ECM: 1. Check Operational. 2. Drink a nice green tea if its the 12z, or a coffee if its the 0z. 3. Check the ECM Control. 4. Check the ECM EPS Means and try to figure out where the Op and Control sit, while trying to then guess what is a majority solution showing. The further you go out, the more pointless the means become. This is especially evident on the EPS 46 after day 15. Prior to then, though, you can sometimes figure stuff out from them. I don't think you can forecast from ensembles or means, but you can use them to favour a certain evolution and then if you are lucky, use the operations or controls to forecast, if you really had the desire to even try :-)

Just to ram the point home. If you really wanted to spot the differences, you would need to say the 0z suite showed more in depth cold than the 06z, yet people are wetting the pants over the 6z, based on an operational, and slashing their wrists over the 0z.... You can't make it up, really.

The 06z Operational is just a slightly different variation of the overall theme. You had ensembles showing it on the 0z and you have ensembles from the 6z showing the 0z operational view. You also have ensembles showing slightly different variations. Hype aside, you can't be depressed about the 0z suite and optimistic about the 06z, based on an operational from either.... In short, nothing changed since the 0z.....and people did tend to overreact to that one.

They the same ones that said Europe into the freezer a few days ago? ;-)

Heh, I think you have a much better chance before Christmas than after ;-)

ECM EPS hint that it might be a little (i stress a little) premature to slash ones wrists this morning. Both the control and mean keep the UK below average temperatures for the next few weeks. The control in particular is quite cold after T240 for a few days. Although it has to be said that the signal from the mean looks a little weak after day 10 or so and one suspects there must be more than a few milder options in order for the mean to be so weak. EPS 46 from yesterday is getting the UK toasty (and much of Europe) after day 15 or so. Not that I have much faith in that.