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jvenge

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Everything posted by jvenge

  1. jvenge
    GEFS 06z mean anomaly for the next 16 days.
  2. jvenge
    Is the GFS welcomed back in yet?
  3. jvenge
    Well, it is partly true, as the link does concede there are some thousands of less aircraft observations. And this has been well known for years. What it shows, though, is that this doesn't really make much different in the grand scheme of things. And, if it does make a difference, they can't really separate it out from general inter run noise. I personally don't view the 6z and 18x output often, but that's more people I prefer to compare like for like at 0z and 12z. Just to see the time stamp matchups. So, what Liam said appears to be nonsense, but is it more nonsense than the original tweet he was replying to? That's a tricky one.
  4. jvenge
    Well. Sometimes I think I'm typing in Romanian on here, with how people seem to be confused by my posts. As the guy above seemed to be agreeing withme by looking at the output, which is kinda what I said people should do. Also, I just had two weeks where temperatures stayed between -3 and -13. Keep it I have a beautiful bruise on my hip from the joys of ice.
  5. jvenge
    You would have been better off quoting and bolding the next few sentences and then merely saying "I agree".
  6. jvenge
    Sure, understood, but even the temperatures are likely not as low as some would have you believe. So, what do we have here? Temperatures to stay below average for the time of year? Check. ECM shows a few days of temperatures getting above zero for some parts, minus temperatures during the night. Cloud, Rain and Snow? Check. Where it is sunny, cold? Check. That seems to marry up quite well with the ECM output. If warnings are needed to be issues for the front moving in from the west, I'm sure it will be, in good time.
  7. jvenge
    Because you actually need to look at what the output is showing and not what some netweather members want it to show. Also, the MetOffice don't react to an single operational run. For example, the ECM this morning, isn't showing the snow fest that some think it was. The snow threat (whatever that means) is actually to the north west and Scotland initially, with parts of Wales and surrounding area joining the part afterwards. Eastern parts and coastal areas see very little. So, what happened was, people saw the uppers, presumed convective snow on offer, then saw the cold on the other side, assumed a meet in the middle scenario. Win win win scenario. But, while those uppers are showing off the east coast, it wouldn't actually take much of a shift at all for that scenario to change. See, quite balanced, eh? Recognizing what the output is giving now, but freely admitting minor changes could increase those snow chances/totals.
  8. jvenge
    Just a quick one, but why oh why do people spend so much time trying to guess snowfall from various model runs, when the model runs actually output that info? I mean, why say "Oh, too marginal" "Oh, it is indeed cold enough for snow". When you could actually just look at the output. And then after you went to look at the output, ask yourself why you bothered so far out anyway.
  9. jvenge
    It is true. Quite how those fewer observations play out with 6 hour newer data is open to question, though. You can't exactly say the 06z gave a completely different solution to the 0z. Also, the ECM and UKMO runs were showing something similar. I also really don't think it is worth speculating on precipitation yet. Even a tiny change that you need a magnifying glass to see can have sweeping changes for snow potential.
  10. jvenge
    Begs the question.... Who would actually want one mid feb?
  11. jvenge
    You must be new here. On Netweather, winters are usually written off each November.
  12. jvenge
    Knocker? Dear me. Although he is no big fan of cold, he is also not a wind and rain seeker either. I can only guess. But he seems to be the type who likes to enjoy the outdoors in a comfortable setting.
  13. jvenge
    I tend not to subscribe to the belief that models at days 13 or so are infallible. Also, i don't worship the MJO. It is a catalyst to change, but not a sure thing. But you can also achieve a Scandinavian block through a shallow movement from phase 1-4 of the GWO under La Nina conditions. (Tease since end of December in the models). GEFS was also much more bullish in its GWO forecast going phase 4 much quicker than it actually did. Even 5 or so days ago it thought it would happen then, but only managed it the last 24 hours. I personally view GWO forecasts as unreliable even at T24. Also, ridging or MLB is to be expected in La Nina conditions. Since a HLB comes from that ridging initially, you have a multitude of opportunities for models to get things wrong. I can't predict the future of how the GWO will move through its phases and we are all more ignorant than a few days ago due to that loss of data, but I personally think we will see at least another easterly tease in days 10-15 shortly and if things continue as recent data suggested, maybe more than a tease.
  14. jvenge
    I appreciate the irony of you appreciating the irony. You literally just celebrated the fact the other data source was pulled and then quoted another message also mentioning the fact the data source was pulled. Thus leaving only GEFS output to post? Erm. MJO data still available from all models. Not that it was the full picture anyway. GEFS still better than nothing. People are forgetting lag times. There wasn't going to be a Scandinavian high so quickly. Even if everything goes to plan from today onwards (GEFS showing a phase 4 GWO now, actually in already, not talking forecast), that would be at least 10 days away, probably nearer 15. From today.
  15. jvenge
    Ah. Fun. The ice claimed me for the first time this winter. Looking forward to next weeks thaw.
  16. jvenge
    I think there is a reasonable shout for something after 14 days or so. A few keep confusing MJO forecasts with the respective days of the regular output and start seeing imaginary things as a result.
  17. jvenge
    Well, it is the model OUTPUT thread. Not the "What the models might show if they didn't show what they did" thread.So why say double digit low temperatures, when the actual chart output is available and says no to that? That setup is not locked in long enough to drive temperatures lower. Even at T312, when it already has almost no chance of verifying, we don't need to start making up temperatures when the output is available for it.
  18. jvenge
    Hmm. Where you take those charts from actually show T2 temperatures, so not much point to speculate. Even though at T312 it's already a speculation.
  19. jvenge
    Worth adding that it has been wrong for the last 5 days about that forecast position into P4. It has repeatedly been keen for a strong move into P4, only to stall in 3. Therefore, sincerely, considering it is consistently wrong at T24, I'm gonna say that forecast is fairly useless.
  20. jvenge
    GEFS from the 0z continue to play with a ridge in the vicinity of the UK. A few of these go onto heights over Scandinavia in the furthest reaches of FI. Most maintain varying degrees of ridging. If one felt compelled to look for trends in the ensembles, it would need to be stated that the ridge position appears to be shunting a little further west. Just a general note, but people shouldn't really be expecting the impacts of an MJO forecast for 7 days away to be seen in model output. You will only notice recent observed impacts from MJO/GWO reflect in the day 10 to 15 range, meaning that if you are looking for influence which in itself is forecast 7 days out, you aren't even going to be seeing that in the furthest reaches of model output. Just something to keep in mind. Differences between models in time under that is just general and usual differences of opinion. There are plenty of other more skilled posters to talk about GWO, though.
  21. jvenge
    This sounds like ridging over the UK at times. Sometimes squashed and then rebuilding.
  22. jvenge
    Swap places. I have ice and snow for the past week and it doesn't look like in a rush to go anywhere. It went above freezing a few times last week, so it melted over then refroze during the night. I feel like I need to write a will each time I leave my apartment. Roll on Spring now :-)
  23. jvenge
    No.
  24. jvenge
    You do realise Bastardi himself is quoting the exact same modeled teleconnections? Its model output ultimately. Bastardi quotes one aspect of it(MJO), either purposely or, perhaps through his own lack of knowledge about the GWO, he doesn't mention other aspects and what would be needed to overcome La Nina forcing. A few here will attempt to give the different paths that can be taken and will then mention what they see as most likely and the outside chance route. He ramps, many do. But also keep in mind his money maker is calling it for the US. He is often a bit free and loose with Europe comments.
  25. jvenge
    Liquified nonsense. La Nina. Read. Then read GWO in reference to suppressing La Nina impacts. Such magic...
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