jvenge

Because an otherwise good thread is totally trashed. And its rinse and repeat with the next pied piper. So it can't even be called a learning exercise.

Bah. It would be funny if it wasn't so tragic. The gullible beleiving the same rampers each time and the rampers inventing what the models will show on the next runs. They get a pass for it each time as well.

I think the last one from me this evening, although I will check the ECM later and I honestly cross my fingers and toes for the UK dwellers. Those mentioning an easterly on the GEFS at T156 or so completely then overlook the fact that not a single one of those goes on to deliver anything that could be classed as a cold easterly. Other GEFS members that show an even more influential Atlantic are not mentioned. Control is not quite as "bad" (depending how you look at it) as the Operational. UKMO and NAVGEM have few similarities (well, its T144, likely to be some between models) and even the NAVGEM doesn't show a cold easterly and does show Atlantic influence edging closer as well in the later frames. GEM also not interested in an easterly. This post might not be rampy enough. Ma Scuzati.

Might I suggest that doesn't appear to be working?

It was missing an easterly component strong enough to freeze people solid as they stepped outside their doors.

In short, it is unlikely you can pickup real trends in 6 hourly runs, especially when people are looking 6+ days away for those trends, when you take into account mathematical uncertainties vs the benefit of an alleged up to date data source. I think the suggest is more from a sanity point of view than anything else. Exceptions of course for high res storm tracking and precipitation forecasts.

I have a job and family. Dunno about anyone else...

As someone who lives in the area impacted by that event last January, I can say it came in fairly quickly and it wasn't overly cold prior to that. -18 and heavy snow for several days. My general point is that people tend to think that cold in Eastern Europe just plonks itself there at the start of winter, just waiting to be tapped into. The truth is it doesn't. It comes and goes, just like other places. Sometimes it can stay longer and you will always have the 1995/1996 almost 5 months winter, and a few others less severe, but prolonged cold none the less. Mostly, it does just come and go, for varying degrees of time.

Yeah that's what I was assuming as well. Thanks.

Read that and quite interesting. How about when the atlantic air incoming is itself fairly cold, though? Although zonal is not sort after in the other thread, I can't personally help but being a little impressed at how fortuitous the UK is being with modeled colder zonal/PM. I remember reading something pre winter regarding a correlation between low solar/EQBO in this regard.

Does seem to be trending that way. Warmest start to January for 10 years here. Bit confused by the weird comments re a cold Europe this morning, or lack thereof. It doesn't make the slight bit of difference to an easterly, as was seen in charts from a few days ago. People look a little too much just at Europe, but the northern hemisphere as a whole should be glanced at. Europe can cool down very quickly with the right setups and it isn't a case that damage has somehow been done by a warmer than usual December/early January.

To be honest the treatment the GEFS got over the past few days from some very well liked posters was rather pathetic. Yet they are never called out on it, but those who muse over teleconnections are ridiculed after someone too dimwitted can't understand what they wrote. Fun forum, eh?

I'm looking at different models again. A few of mine still show an easterly. They are also clearly a "downgrade". Maybe if I keep refreshing.

Although the GFS is not too well liked here this morning, one imagines it could have another go after mid month and during that time open to colder zonal and some potent PM shots at times. Not exactly a disaster ;-)

ECM Control similar to Op. Quite a beautiful long haul easterly actually. Mean seems to have shifted a bit from the 12z yesterday. Someone will likely confirm later, but guessing the atlantic cluster is noticeably smaller.

What's your point? I'm not a rabid coldie, but if quite a few models are showing an easterly flow, it is most certainly under the remit of the thread. Not that I agree with the binning of ensemble suits and whole models, which currently is ongoing in there. Not sure what your point is re Eastern Europe. It rained last night, therefore it can't possibly be sunny come Sunday? Are you suggesting the models haven't factored this in and that as any easterly comes (an if i might add) that it won't be cold? Are you complaining its not as cold as it might be if it were already cold elsewhere?

Not sure - I have around 40 people on ignore. I like the tweets thread and don't take the one quoted seriously. Need to allow people to make their own mistakes at some point, I guess :-)

Click bait

If you felt inclined to view the latter frames of the GFS 0z, you would note a scandi high, all be it a short lived one.

I noticed a little note on the NOAA MJO page regarding those predicted phases. Worth a look.

Add her to ignore then. It is hardly her fault if people misquote her or people read what they want from the messages. Maybe for some people they just lack the brainpower to understand as well. For example, because I think you write nonsense, I'm just adding you to ignore. Everyone is happy then.

Just read her full posts and you will be fine. For some reason, people seem to focus on the potential cold part and ignore the raging jet part. Also, I haven't yet seen Tamara make a forecast.

Why do people care so much? Of course, many have an interest in the weather, what it is going to do and have weather preference types, but some people seem to live for the model runs and pin their happiness on the outcomes. The modeled output for my location has gone from -1 on Christmas day to +11 in the space of 24 hours on the ECM set runs :-D No doubt it will change again as well. Does it matter? Not in the slightest. I'll still be having the exact same day.

I was out of the UK for many years, but I don't recall that insinuating someone using a zimmer frame was particularly humerous. I find it alarming to share oxygen with someone who does, let alone tea and biscuits.

Who likes wet and windy? Certainly not Knocker.