jvenge

It means be cautious with MJO ramp posts and tweets, because although it may be more "interesting' than 5 or so days ago, it still has a lot to overcome. Not impossible for what is now after the first week of Feb, it is not majority favoured solution.

A new netweather trend to turn the output thread into a gossip site during the night? I feel for the mod who needs to clean up each morning. Anyway. The GFS leads to quite strong high pressure situated over the UK and influences much of Europe. This will divide opinion. On the one hand, settled. On the other, i'd think daytime high single digits. No snow chances. Probably also a struggle for frosts. Later on, it could ridge towards Greenland, but since I'm already talking FI at T240, I'll leave it there. On the edit, it really did take another route and one that would make most cold lovers sigh.

That chap likes his T360 charts. He will be tweeting the fail of the EPS46 next.

That ECM run seemed to spew out fairly quickly? Usually another 30 mins before its finished.

To be honest, even with the ECM take on the MJO, that would still be a big ask to override La Nina forcing. So more like "La Nina MIGHT not win". I think GWO output from ECM is not daily accessible. I'm sure a few are watching it, though. In any event. It is likely to February now and it becomes a bigger ask as winter progresses. That line of dominoes is a little longer as the days roll on. Just to add. This is in reference to HLB. The UK has done okay from ridges and cold zonal this winter.

Did someone order double digit south westerlies?

He looks like he ate more than enough already.

Check the ECM Control and EPS Mean from this morning. From T192 or so. Although it would be a little self defeating to want the block to stay around too long (no mans land, and this is peak time, dont have days to waste). It does allow deeper cold to build in the east and you can see how this is beneficial in those runs I mentioned. In the mean time, more unusual colder uppers from the Atlantic side. Even as someone in Eastern Europe, from a modeling point of view, I actually find some of the atlantic output more interesting. Of course, at the range it is all speculation, bit in that scenario both camps would benefit.

Quite impressive looking charts for next week from the west. If it is something as modeled, I imagine even my location might taste that setup. Those types of uppers, coming from the west, reaching so far into Europe. Quite impressive. If it happens, of course. The EPS mean wind charts for this morning were also quite facinating. Not often you two cold from both directions like that.

I respect the other thread, unlike the 95%. So... https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://m.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DflWTWG-gTT4&ved=0ahUKEwjV9pzQxcbYAhXnQpoKHRmJCfoQ3ywIMjAB&usg=AOvVaw1agVfHjzRdEgNS1irlznse

I benefit more than most here from UKMO output, but I just think how disinterested the GEFS continues to be.

You answered your own question as far as I'm concerned.

I could quite easily believe the UKMO over the GFS, but over the GEFS is a big ask.

Just as I depart for another Christmas celebration... Control better than the Op and brings -8/-10 uppers to the north sea, very close to England. Then colder air also moves in from the west. Meaning that even if an easterly doesn't deliver, the atlantic would. The mean still has the atlantic winning out, which looks no bad thing.

Suspect tomorrow will have some very excitable or depressive people. But since I will be in the north celebrating Christmas, I won't get to view it. The Moldovan squirrels have been enjoying winter thus far and are beginning to wonder why they don such warm coats ;-)

I find the control interesting. As that suggests that even if the first hurdle is overcome, there are still things that can stall it before the atlantic pushes in. But there is not much point thinking too much. Since id personally trust the Op to have resolved the initial (famous last words) and if it did that "right", the EPS will be laughably different tomorrow.

Oh, just mentioned is all. High res and supposed accurate data should count for something as well, I'd have thought.

ECM control and mean not supportive of cold air getting as far west as the UK.

Yeti spotted and the footage isn't that grainy either.

I see the yeti search is still ongoing...

Congrats Frosty. I was wondering who would first discuss that which must not be discussed.

Out into the unreliable the GFS returns to zonal, all be it the colder variety. If the GFS is to believed, the UK's best chance of something wintry is to look west, not east.

GEM toys with heights, but doesn't really get there and the position isn't the best if it did. What's the saying, hero to zero? GFS does get there, but its positioning just isn't useful and it quickly fades.

The correct thread ;-)

I believe its an expression. I actually don't mind the melodramatics :-). It is the inventing what future runs will show and trashing models that don't play along that grates. And inevitability after that happens you will get the usual dimwits lambasting people for ever thinking they could trust them there computers and teleconnections. Followed by the others in denial, maintaining they can switch back and life will be worth living again. And then some sarcastic swine comes to this thread and moans. See. I like melodrama.