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jvenge

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Everything posted by jvenge

  1. jvenge
    Maybe have some respect or if you can't, go back to the sandpit and play with your soldiers. Its not like you have anything to say in regards to models anyway.
  2. jvenge
    Glad to see Knocker has resolved his technical issues. Interesting 12z from the ECM EPS. I don't usually bother with beyond T240, but one wonders if a cooler zonal flow going towards the month end is likely.
  3. jvenge
    You mean the EPS 46 based on yesterdays 0z? They are out and there isn't anything of interest there for coldies. I personally have an incredibly low opinion of it, though.
  4. jvenge
    ECM control is mild out till the end and if you had hopes of chilling the bubbly outside on Christmas day, you will be hoping its well off mark. The mean seems to suggest the control option would be on the extreme side, but it is also not favouring a seasonal feel.
  5. jvenge
    The Op was the pick of the run, but you can see some of the other ensembles (far from a majority solution) smell something similar in the extended range, even if they do end up at different places. Bigger takeaway being that many of them favour a move away from mild, even if they get there in slightly different ways and don't give anything particular cold along the way.
  6. jvenge
    You can. This is because you can have somewhere cold one month, then warm the next. It's over a 3 month period. When people look at these things, especially for temperatures, they just assume that each day of the three month period will be above average in a static way. But that's not how averages come to be. You then also need to take into account that the globe is warming and it would actually be quite unusual if large parts did show a cold anomaly over a three month period in regards to a previous 30 year base period.
  7. jvenge
    No it doesn't. That's not a good chart for anything even close to resembling an ice day in London. Unless ice has a new freezing point and I wasn't informed.
  8. jvenge
    Eh? That's showing 8-12 degrees in the south coast and 6 a little further north. I don't think anywhere but very high ground would get frosts from that.
  9. jvenge
    Quite, but it isn't actually showing in 2sd, just close to, and briefly, before moving back into a standard deviation. I actually think it is quite encouraging for the time of year :-) I generally have an issue when people who confuse mean and normal and thought I'd rant a bit while the forum is quiet.
  10. jvenge
    Almost, briefly, almost ;-) You don't arrive at a mean value by "normal" conditions tracking the mean. So, it is on the edge of a standard deviation and two standard deviations briefly. Standard deviation, by its name, suggests it is quite, well, standard? So, while it stays within a standard deviation, on either side, I'd suggest that's quite normal and average for an observation/forecast.
  11. jvenge
    Always best not to confuse a mean with normal. That is quite within a "normal" (or shall we say "typical") range.
  12. jvenge
    Positive AO and NAO on the GEM, GEFS and ECM EPS on the run up to Christmas. Negative to neutral PNA. This isn't indicative of a colder pattern for Western Europe. It looks like there will be a milder phase after this colder one passes (yes, the UK is still under colder air, in case you forgot), but the duration is open to question and while still 13 days out, a lot can still change before the 25th.
  13. jvenge
    Yes, the uncertainty appears to be in the interaction with the ridge and the exact placement of the Canadian vortex, rather than the actual overall theme. This can be the difference between double digit temperatures and perhaps a chilly polar maritime/colder zonal flow, though... I'm personally a little suspicious that so many of the ECM EPS handle the vortex that way and the GEFS too, even in the furthest reaches. It's the first thing I'm looking at on the EPS and GEFS each run now.
  14. jvenge
    Not sure, but when the mean shows it that strongly, one suspects almost all must be going for it?
  15. jvenge
    Sorry. Is looking at 10-15 not allowed unless it shows cold? I forget the coldie rules at times.
  16. jvenge
    Thats because you didn't look at the control or EPS mean, both of which go to day 15.
  17. jvenge
    ECM control and EPS mean showing some toasty temps on the run up to Christmas.
  18. jvenge
    Well. Agree with trying to pick apart precipitation forecasts and thinking they wont change 5 days out, but at the same time, every model comes with a precipitation forecast and a breakdown of the type, quantity and location. Therefore, I dont really understand this netweather weirdness of denying snow when it is shown or claiming snow when its not. We slip into forecast territory then, rather than actual output.
  19. jvenge
    The people who do it know who they are.
  20. jvenge
    Actually, I think people getting excited is perfectly natural and fine. What personally grates on me is the longer term output being taken as gospel when it shows what someone wants. Then trying to find reasons to discount another model. Then trying to imagine what the output could show if a, b, c, d e, etc etc were to happen instead. Then going on the emotional rollercoaster as some posters live op run to op run. It's exhausting to even try to keep up with as an observed and occasional contributor, so I can only imagine how the people who live it feel ;-) And it attracts different types. As much as I dislike the rabid cold ramper, the trolls popping in when an output changes the other way is equally as annoying.
  21. jvenge
    For sure, the right place for it, unlike 90% of the posts in the other thread ;-) But, sometimes solutions are better than moaning, yes? So, for me anyway, I'll add a few people to ignore each day, as there are some thoughts I'd want to read, but I don't have the time or patience to read through the manure to get to it ;-)
  22. jvenge
    Just use the ignore feature :-)
  23. jvenge
    Actually from a model output point of view, they will give a min value and max value for say 12pm Friday. Sometimes there might be only a degree between the min and max, sometimes it can be up to 4 or 5 or so, but this uncertainly range usually narrows nearer the time. I don't pretend to know the difficulties involved. Some output will then just give a figure, but this usually just ends being the same as the max figure. Different forecasting services will then put out a figure and that is often why you can see forecasts giving differing temperatures. Some will opt for the min, some the max. Some will just shoot for the middle.
  24. jvenge
    In general, models will give a min value and max value for the same time and then forecasters are left to come with, well, a forecast. Sometimes this difference is bigger than others and can be quite huge at times. So, based on the ECM output, since this is the output thread, between 2-4 is the range for much of London on Friday.
  25. jvenge
    Just a suggestion, but to those who struggle with certain aspects of the model output, consider looking at MeteoGrams for your particular location, or somewhere close. It kinda resolves the whole "will it snow or won't it?" "What temperature will it be?" about each model run. And keep in mind the range when doing so. Precipitation is a fickle beast :-)
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