[Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards]

Heared static on am radio just now hear distant rumble

[Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards]

Netweathers

 

strikes.jpg

 

Has a modern artist been around

[Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards]

 

3600JKG^-1 CAPE for the South East :clapping:

 

thats big shift pretty much busts the north and my area clings by coatails

[Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards]

just seen lightening wizard sat up now convective rainfall chart 

 

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/ani.html?0,gfs_,_eur60.png,cape,mucape,icape,layer,lfc,mulfc,el,icon10,omega,pvort,pvort2,difadv,kili,spout,lapse,lapse2,the700,thetae,mixr,mtv,gusts,stp,srh,srhl,pw,hail

[Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards]

2200 j/kg and li-7 never seen cape that high around here ,normally get excited about 500j/kg BRING IT ON

 

cant see my lapse rate is full white edge of uk.   Would think its comparable to yours as ours is 2100 j/kg.   Sheffield area looks like peterborough -10 lapse rate 3000 j/kg  

[Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards]

MetO still have light rain for me all the way through, no flash symbols or anything yet....I do wonder about them sometimes. What could go wrong eh

 

think air is they frightened to over egg or getting it wrong by issue warnings too early its a damp squid.  To me better give out warnings be better safe than sorry atitude.  I felt during winter met was too slow wrong issuing warnings close to knuckle of the event even as late during it, if lives at risk best to air on the caution and give warnings early and clear.

[Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards]

So then,3000+ CAPE and an LI of -10 for Saturday afteroon according to 

the 06z NMM.

 

nmmuk-6-58-0.png

 

Normally these figures decrease the nearer the event,but not this time.

 

impressive when was last time similar forecast to this here looks 2100j/kg 

[Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards]

Just wondering if there chance records broken Met has list records temperature wont or wind but can it breaks some rainfalls 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/extremes/index.html#rainfall

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

just found this apparently small tornado 1st july did some damage to cars property in hampshire.  

 

http://www.itv.com/news/meridian/update/2014-07-01/eyewitnesses-describe-tornado-like-an-explosion/

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

Getting excited at the potential of seeing severe storms. The use of the word "Severe" is often over used on this thread but with the current set up for later this week/weekend, we could genuinely see severe storms.

 

Im not focussing too much yet on the models or the BBC/Met O forecasts because past experience tells me its pointless. I have no doubts there will be winners & losers and sometimes it simply boils down to luck and timing. For example a severe storm could move up from the channel overnight and weaken to leave a band of cloud and rain during the day preventing convection from kicking off.

 

For guidance I shall be following Nick F forecasts. I find these the most accurate and are even better than the Met O. What I like about Nick F isn't just his knowledge but he isn't OTT. I find some websites tend to be too sensational and predict severe storms far too often.

 

Apsolutely I think at present we cant at this early stage say where the worst hits I think will shift.    I love those who post like Nick F there insight forecasts.

 

Ben Sainsbury

 

Then again GFS 6z for Saturday looks even more widespread further westwards too?!

 

Saturday looks incredible for ALL of England!

 

 

 

Agreed Meteox even thinks this could run upto next wednesday 

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

That's a hell of a lot of CAPE for the SE!

 

 

yep we have just mere 1700 on that 

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

By the latest GFS, I Don't really see much potential tomorrow, odd heavy shower Central/Eastern areas, Thursday has the potential for the odd thundery shower through southern counties, then Thursday night into Friday, a large group of thunderstorms/mcs moving from Western France up through Cornwall/Devon/Somerset/Dorset, some active thunderstorms pushing through Gloucestershire into the midlands; a few storms continuing into the night. Friday Night proves a lot larger potential with a series of thunderstorms moving into Dorset through to London, maybe not just one but maybe two or three bands of these, and then more homegrown widespread thunderstorms through Saturday mostly across Central and Eastern, maybe pushing into Eastern areas of the south west and wales. Sunday may prove another day for a few thundery showers across wales and southern counties, but these generally fairly localised, only my opinion however.Tony Gilbert of ukweatherworld have produced this outlook for tomorrow, nothing too exciting: http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/104204-convective-outlook-weds-16th-july-2014/page__pid__906680#entry906680

 

Is that similar to last time when southerly winds pushed storms over from Le Havre area

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

Thanks for the London tornado info, guys. Must admit I'm quite surprised at the rare but strong ones that have occurred, and I can't believe I don't remember the 2006 one! 

 

aye been some really bad ones torro has earliest recorded 1091 Also included nasty earthquakes, storm surges life must been bad enough without these events.   Lincolnshire lost a lot land through tsunami would you believe it too it was revealed few weeks ago on the beeb.  Would be interested what weather patterns was in this dark unsettled nature events.  Are we getting to comparable today with temperature weather patterns those dark periods bad disasters.

 

I am looking forward to next few days but also worried, I hope no one hurt if it becomes bad.

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

I am no expert but looking current track on meteox the worst rain will miss uk be in north sea .  It may clip kent, north east newcastle way and on return hit scotland.   Best of thunderstorms  look friday and even monday now looking good.

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

There are definatly parts of the uk that are 'storm killers' and other areas that enjoy what seems like endless potential.This is clearly not scientific,but something i have seen happen.Example one.Hastings.Always a good bet for a summer import,or something generated nearer to home.Example two.SE London.Hopeless,i have seen storms die within 20 miles of here and then regenerate once clear of this area on numerous occasions.You can be certain that anything storm wise that looks to be on a "collision course" will find a way to divert or die.I have puzzled over reasons,the close proximity of the thames? Certain wind directions,the approach to a big city?Its certainly not a thunder free zone,but i am sure anti thunderstorm forces are at work here!

 

thanks for this information.   I always wondered why areas stronger.   I have also thought, could there be also a possibilty storms develop west uk drift east before fully developed net result east side looks the mecca of storms just because the jet stream pushes it that way mostly.

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

Off topic sorry, but what about snow, do you get a lot of that?

 

here very rare has to be from scandinavia/russia then we get fun cold snaps but atlantic seems rarely come turns to sleet or rain.   However wolds gets fare share snow. But that seems barrier for my location.

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

 

I'm just dreading the inevitable headlines from the usual newspaper....my guess is something along the lines of.... "Killer storms set to ravage Britain....Britain is about to experience its worst storms in a generation, with frequent lightning, baseball sized hailstones, flash floods and powerful tornados set to ravage the country. The storms will follow the strongest heatwave ever recorded with temperatures set to top 100F across Southern England and as high as 90F in the Shetland Isles...."....you read it here first

 

If he ever got it right the next edition will be I told you for years nobody ever listened

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

It's probably thundering in Lincolnshire  now!

 

we do share occasions honest   

 

Hopefully this going widespread say somewhere saturday everybody on the action

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

next few days could be interesting but ultimately at present 17th looks really good for big fireworks

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

storm here went south of us though we did get an edge of tad rainfall

 

cell south west of derby according to our webs live sat

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

Wish I was a bit nearer to Market Rasen...

 

not so sure 10 miles away encased in developing mist

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

our paper saying lots thunderflies out in force possible indication weather next few days

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

Thick mist and murk rolled in off the sea Vladthemert, vis is pretty bad down Cleethorpes sea frontRegards

 

ah thanks never thought that 

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

A nice graphic courtesy of Dan Holley on Twitter.

Rough schematic of where showers and thunderstorms will be at what time through this afternoon/evening:

Screenshot_2014-07-12-14-12-17.png

 

thanks there is cloud developing off coast here now

[Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards]

saw some good model forecasts on about cape levels in model forecast by summer sun for today but east coast full of fog  was thick last night here still foggy now.