vladthemert
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Posts posted by vladthemert
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True there is much doubt going around see Jeff Master's blog.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2774
THE GFS 12z
Thanks Knocker I wonder if it follows Bertha track although I am mindful of reading the article, a lot uncertainty which likely effect tracking and intensity in that Jeff Masters blog.
Just looked at Noaa latest on Cristobal
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/241453.shtml?
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storm above thundering started to rain heavy showers
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sunday and monday going to be fun earlier for poor scotland who could do without this due to hammering they got from Bertha. Just looked lightening wizard they predict 30 to 40 kts convective from this storm this going down the east coast right over here. The worst of the rain looks to be in the tail if I have predicted right. I wonder if the predicted winds met calling 50-60 mph bang on or little on small side considering risks convection.
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It's certainly been a fairly good year for hearing thunder ( 10 days so far this year, the most at this stage since 2009) but not a good one for actually experiencing thunderstorms as most of those days were the result of showers or thunderstorms in the vicinity but not here.
Its been really good here too not kept count but quite few hits some been more of clip, then we in storm alley but to be fair not whole Lincolnshire is good often we lost out many times but this year it seems A46, A180 corridor been very active usually Southern Lincolnshire is the hotbed.
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nice picks NL looks like estofex was wrong I was thinking level 1 this could be bad but to be fair the said sea breeze would trigger here the wind was still we actually got more wind today. but still very low speeds 5 mph gust of 8 mph. I dont know what winds is needed to create convection.
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I think we was guilty killing storms off last night no wind at all the storms from Yorkshire and above hit us the petered out.
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I am wondering if last winter could repeat at times it was like missile command with the storms firing in. Surely winter wont repeat but is Bertha sign it might.
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amazing vids pics posted there RazorRob and Knoxgar.
Going to love tomorrow Estofex up we got level 1 warning for east coast this what they say this could be very bad, lots of moisture with slow moving storm.
North Sea, British Isles, northern France
In the range of the trough axis, weak winds, rich moisture, and rather high low-level buoyancy are expected to increase the chance for non-supercell tornadoes. Additionally, slow moving storms may produce excessive precipitation, especially along the land-sea-breeze convergence over eastern England, late in the period also over northern France, Benelux, and Germany.-
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amber warnings now going up for floodwater in the rivers at effected areas. We got few including humber. Also our laceby water is on high alert we had so much water ground is saturated cant take much more there few areas in this situation.
link so you can check your areas risk
If Stormchaser90 right it backtracks could cause alot problems in areas already effected.
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no worries TonyH Got 36 mm here today yesterday 7.5 mm big difference. Average win speed here 17.5 mph with gusts anything from 24 to 37 mph at moment
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starting to get a rinse and wash feel if this dragging rain down
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I've had several hours of heavy and persistent rain in Lothian (SE Scotland) and it went dark very early today. Waiting for the winds tonight to add to it all
looks like Scotland got alot of rain whole of the country under yellow red band rain set to stay for awhile. Must be a lot of flooding up there.
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Berthas is a fully developed beauty on sat 24 Europe now !!....
Have funny feeling bertha wants to return here its not far away.
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Pembroke is SW Wales Snowdonia north...today's Geography lesson
not really there was seperate smaller cell developing at the time other than Snowdonia TonyH.
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This the tornado damage in hull one injured several cars damaged and trees up rooted
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Still quite gusty out with wind gust of up to 23 mph currently though recently a wind gust of 28 mph was recorded at 17:23. The trees are swaying around a bit but nothing really that out of the ordinary now.
apparantly here the shipping forecast calling gale 10. Met has us down strong winds for tomorrow too. However as yet the winds similar to yours we had it pretty much all day. Not going say wont come off had an uncle in fishing his skipper said never call storm weak until its clear and away from you, it has a habit to bite you.
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Stuff over Snowdonia hopefully incoming. Squally showers alert. Be nice to squeeze a rumble or three.
aye one off pembroke coast firing too
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crikey looks like squall line afoot there firing all over 3 seem do be developing all emulating from the ireland.
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I just had a very nasty shower passing by. I never seen that rain so heavy before, at least for a long time. Without a doubt, that shower I'm experiencing now is gonna be a T-storm later someplace in the East.
getting the edge this now crack of thunder raining very dark cloud as it came in
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that liverpool storm coming across looks like got bow or creating a hook
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Nigel Bolton saying a triple point occurring in hull area. I had to check what it was.
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/530/
You have probably heard of a triple play and the trifecta, but have you heard of the triple point? This writing is about the frontal triple point but I will mention another triple point you may have heard of and that is for water. The triple point of water is where ice, liquid water and water vapor can all exist at the same time. At a specific temperature (O C) and pressure (6.11 mb) water has its triple point.
Okay, now to the frontal triple point. Three basic frontal types you will see drawn on surface maps are the warm front, cold front and occluded front. The warm front is generally found to the right of the low pressure center. It is where the warm sector is wrapping around the low pressure system. The cold front is typically on the left side wrapping colder air around the low pressure system. Since the cold front typically moves faster than the warm front, where the cold front lifts the warm front will result in an occluded front. The triple point is where the occluded front, cold front and warm front all intersect. This intersection point will have a great amount of lifting. If enough moisture is wrapping in from the warm sector than big rains and storms can fire along the triple point and along the fronts and wrap into the low pressure. There is a great amount of wind shear also near the triple point and fronts. Severe weather will often fire up ahead of the cold front, along the warm front and near the triple point where shear is enhanced. Below is a depiction of a low pressure system with the fronts and where the triple point is located.
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Printed off a thousand "I survived Bertha T-shirts.."Yours for a quid
ok. 50p. you know some business already beat you will try cash in.-
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Not an expert either by any means but I agree with you. Having looked at the radar I think I can finally make some sense of where we are. There is a low in Liverpool Bay (I think that's what the area between N Wales, the Isle of Man and Lancashire is called) and a line of convection (potential future squall line?) developing in advance of this. There is also a second low developing off the N Yorks coast. This is the area that passed over you and I just over an hour ago. This would explain the dramatic wind shifts we experienced and would tie-in with the forecasts regarding two low pressure centres.
Anyway have a look at the radar loop and see if you agree with me.
Edit: there is also an electrified streamer on the Pembrokeshire/Carmarthenshire border...
yep agree we seem to be in an eye at moment storm cloud circling to the coast bit nasty stuff inland heading our way. I believe the Cape is issue from now on so bigger chance for development. Winds picking up too now.
ps anybody near Hull reports from ukweatherworld that tornado's coming in
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Ooh is that a radar blib or something odd developing from Winchester to Swindon?
that even on raintoday could link to lancashires creating new squall line
Welcome Stormchaser90 and Mercury Rising.
ok. 50p.
you know some business already beat you will try cash in.
Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
been getting hammering with strong winds for awhile started getting stronger from 3 pm hitting with 30 mph gusts since 10 been getting 40 mph + gusts