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vladthemert

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    Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 30/09/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by vladthemert

    Are we looking at the same chart because I've got a low mid Atlantic 975mb with a ridge over the UK?

     

    sorry GEM  :sorry:

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=15&ech=384&mode=0&carte=1

     

    ah thanks summer blizzard and yarmy.

     

    Yarmy found this Measurements from recent eruptions such as Mount St. Helens, in 1980, El Chichon, Mexico in 1982, and Mount Pinatubo, Philippines in 1991, clearly show the importance of sulfur aerosols in modifying climate, warming the stratosphere, and cooling the troposphere. SO2 converts to sulfuric acid aerosols that block incoming solar radiation and contribute to ozone destruction.  So under this SO2 could cool the troposphere agreed how could models take this into consideration.  Has iceland caused enough to shift weather patterns, I now not sure.

     

     

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted · Edited by vladthemert

    Cool I looked and managed a shot, thanks  Milkmaid. Courtesy Mila Iceland. Bada 2 cam

     

    Lava composition:-   http://earthice.hi.is/chemical_composition_basalt_erupted_29_august_2014_through_1797ad_holuhraun_linear_vent_system_north

     

    BBC  :hi:  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29003031

     

    thanks for the lava composition.

     

    edit if this blows ex Christobol going to spread it far and wide.  That camera really moving not sure all wind causing it

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    According to John Freeman the stormy conditions mean that fewer earthquakes are going to be detected due the wind noise.

    Also, the progress of the dyke towards Askja appears to have stopped and he doesn't know why that is (although that was written before the current eruption which may explain the lack of progress).

     

    Karyo

     

    thanks for update Karyo.

     

    Not suprising with the winds.

    • Like 1

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted · Edited by vladthemert

     

    just fantastic

     

    theres vid of the image

     

    https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=846553135355508&fref=nf

     

    alert gone Red again very windy at the location looking live cams

     

    also found this info on a web high levels of sulphur got be bad news

     

    Preliminary geochemical analysis of previous lava shows basalt with a very high gaseous sulphur content

     

    Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted · Edited by vladthemert

    Yes it usually gives lots of so called ice quakes, the locals say you can hear the ice breaking, mmmm creepy.

    The Mila Barda 2 cam has a van in attendance atm "cable guy" screen was etc  :) It kind of feels homely and all is well in the world.....Iceland must be a great place hardly anybody there at all not overcrowded like here.

    Though the chance of an inconvenient Volcanic eruption spoiling the BBQ is outrageous :nonono:

    I snapped a screen shot looks like a dramatic past.....

     

     

    been inactive for last 24 hours assumed it was volume activity watching the stream poor mila bandwidth must be going through the roof.  By the way is cam 2 shakes wind effect or activity

    Model Output Discussion 31/07/14 onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Mark Sudduth has a comment on his blog (hurricanetrack.com)

    "In fact, interests in the United Kingdom should keep watch over the post-tropical version of Cristobal as it tracks across the Atlantic over the next several days"

    It does seem uncertain where ex-Cristobal will end up, but it is forecast to become a very powerful extra-tropical storm, still with hurricane force winds, so best

    hope it doesn't make a beeline for the Uk

     

    Sorry for late reply and for you to Knocker. Interesting blog and comments

     

    Yes mindful very much so interesting that Knocker last post this going be possible low 967 hpa with that forecast model.

     

     Yes Knocker could be GFS models maybe right NOAA has it back dialed at poor old iceland they could do without ex Cristobal hitting with volcano worries.  Talking of this can this storm effect the situation with low pressure.

    Model Output Discussion 31/07/14 onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Don't want to dampen the high pressure but the track Cristobal not nailed yet latest NOAA predictions is we must be wary as the latest Christobal models tracking is to faroe isles and not iceland now.  That is quite a shift in track in such short space of time and similar shift again would evaporate those high pressure forecasts.

     

     

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/083415.shtml?gm_track#contents   

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion 31/07/14 onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Looking at the GFS I can't say I've noticed any major changes in the track of Cristobal in recent runs.

     

     Knocker was looking this morning NOAA report on the web had the track towards iceland so changed thanks.  Also noaa latest discussion interesting

     

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/261442.shtml?

     

    I also noticed yesterday on earth wind map that second eye developed was pulled by the trough mentioned in the noaa report.  There was comments in the reply's  in Jeff Master's blog about it.  What is the impact to Cristobal storm.  

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