Flash bang flash bang etc

I look at it like this these days: forecasts are there to assist with the safety of the public, and not to provide pointers for enthusiasts. So use them at your own risk! Edit: UKWW and CW are kind of exceptions

Don’t estofex use a system similar to the highways agency? - what I mean is like on motorways where they bolster their reporting of immediate and near-future traffic with historical data, Estofex shore up their model predictions using data from similar setups in the past. Whatever the secret is it just seems to work

Ooh I just found this: https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/thunderstorm_satellite.asp nice little animation

I don’t like Estofex anymore for the very reason that they are so accurate - and seem to never put the U.K. in a risk zone

Tony mentions capping on UKWW: ”IMO today's outlook has ultimately become dependant on a fine line of condusive conditions. A number of small convective cells have tried to punch through the cap but quickly subsided. This is very evident if we re wind radar so far today. We are now approaching a point where we lose surface heating and the any results will be unlikely based on the overal synoptic set up.For me, I see the classic condition of a strong mid level cap as was very clear within the 12z Larkhill ascent. This is why there were isolated pockets of strong dbz shown, but which just as quickly dissipated. The evidence is already shown, and it would have required some big surface warming with moisture to overcome this layer.” (Couldn’t remember how to put this in quotes) He also mentioned the potential of cold-pooling too - so like you say looks like we’re good for a few hours yet Edit: is mid-level cap the same as a warm nose?

I’m still learning about warm noses - probably what I thought was a cap

Completely agree that lack of any real heat was a primary issue today, but there’s still something of a cap to be overcome - just looked to my eye like the larger cells of the CZ have been spreading out rather than up

Aliens?

Intra cloud perhaps?

Phew!

You can see on satellite that the cap’s keeping the clouds supressed. There’s also a lot of cloud filling in the remaining clear spells between the two fronts (though we are well past the stage that heating would do much anyway). I have a feelin we are rapidly moving towards a bust (of sorts - considering the forecasts were very restrained anyway). It’s the usual story of a couple of hours on the precipice of something, but that vital kick is missing and it all falls flat...

I think for the best potential at about 6pm should note the clear skies to the south over parts of Hants, along with areas around Maidenhead up towards MK. I wouldn’t expect anything too prolific but wondering if storms will be moving very slowly, varying in intensity (not quite popcorn showers) and fading just after it gets dark. Of course we could also see that nobody gets anything

You can see on sat the big ‘squeeze’ happening along the likely CZ. I’m parked up near Winkfield and it’s 27° according to the van - (but that might be a degree out as i’ve been stationary for a while) Think it’s only a matter of 10 - 20 mins before we see something kick off...

Wasn’t any kind of initiation likely to be from around 6pm onwards?

Did you kick them hard in the shins?

I’m potentially going there in a fortnight for a work trip. Would be excited but I can guarantee my boss will find a way to distill all the enjoyment out of a two day/ one night visit - it seems to be a talent he has developed

Jeez these mod thread posts are always the same “GFS says rain by day seven therefore it MUST mean rain until October - no wait! ECM shows a single shaft of sunlight over Telford at 128Z so prepare for a heatwave lasting until 2080....” Sigh, can’t ppl just hold back a bit ?

Great pics! I have an app which only ‘writes in’ pixels lighter than the current stored ones. It’s like a long exposure, but I think of it more of a ‘light trap’. It great for meteors. Guess which one of these is actually a meteor:

It’s nice to see the convective thread appear on the homepage every now and then during long periods of calm weather (like what we’re experiencing) - so hats off to you for that Could see some almost tropical looking skies this evening and it’s probably felt hotter today than any other so far during this heatwave. Walked out of the supermarket earlier on at about 7pm and it was actually like walking out in front of an open oven door. Van temp was reading 35° - and that was after about 5 mins of driving. Incredible really - just need some good storms now

There was one back in May, I don’t remember the exact details but it was just rain. There was definately no thunder at all. Very disappointing.

I’d like thunder to happen week after week. Is that bad?

This really is exceptionally boring exceptional weather. When. Will. We. Have. Storms????

My favourite weather is usually the stuff nobody wants - ie: severe, unexpected and disruptive weather

Isn’t there a small chance of sferics into the night over the channel? I don’t expect anything more than cloud farts, but i’ll take whatever’s going at the moment

It won’t amount to much. I keep praying the forecasters have got it wrong but it looks like for any decent rain or anything we are in exactly the wrong place