Hocus Pocus

Sleet here with a temp of 3.2c

Yes as the AMO was in its negative phase, and extensive cold waters could be found reaching down to Azores.

I don't see the problem when qualified climate scientists question aspects of the science , I mean let's face it how many on this forum are qualified climate scientists. So to question the motives and belittle them is no better than what you're complaining about from the likes of Watts etc, etc.

It's a blog site, which is kind of ironic using a blog site to attack a blog site.

Interesting so you're implying a leading climate scientist is irrelevant because she questions aspects of her own science. That sums up all that is wrong with climate science as science is about asking probing questions and doubting conclusions until there's sufficient empircal evidence at hand, which is what we don't have at the moment due to doubts over how much warming we may see. The whole concept of this debate is tiresome, well when I say debate I mean arguments put forward questioning the above, as one side distinctly dismisses any evidence laid down and merely sneers at any discussion which dares to rear its ugly head above the pulpit.

Judith Curry remains a thorn in the side of proponents of AGW, more so due to her stance on subjects such as over amplifying projections and feedbacks and this from a leading climate scientist who has produced several peer reviewed publications for the IPCC summits. Obviously she's been nobbled by big oil and tobacco to fund her lavish lifestyle.

I never expected it to as it's just a precursor to the overall switch in the AMO, if you compare the cold waters in the Atlantic now to those of the early 80s they're poles apart.

Well a chance of snow IMBY over the weekend but to be honest I would rather see a nice frosty high for several days after the deluge of the last few weeks.

Yet it's just as likely to verify as any other chart posted in FI.

Southern Oscillation Index, apparently it's dropped like a stone over the last few days and this will impact the NH over the coming weeks.

I think at this moment in time a lot of us will be looking for something that's drier with the hunt for cold and snow being put on the back burner, as we've far more pressing concerns to contend with for now. I'm not saying that's what you're looking for Mushy of course.

What makes it more depressing is when we see the switch over from a Nino base to a Niña one we'll still be in a poor position for cold. It seems we have a very small window of goldilocks opportunity for everything to be just right..

I would say April/May before we see more favourable conditions but by then as we know the moment of promise has long gone. I expect a poor summer to follow due to the forecasted strong La Niña during late spring onwards.

Try telling that to those who are flooded, I'm sure they'll agree with you.

Water, water everywhere and not a drop............ Well the last bit isn't relevant but the surrounding floodwaters sure are. Another truly abysmal week to come following on from the truly abysmal weeks beforehand.

How anyone can enjoy this sort of setup leaves the mind boggled, incessant rains, wind and grey skies. Can there really be a worst climate than the Northern half of the UK, thoroughly depressing with rising floodwaters and no rest-bite until next weekend at least.

Yes, four days into winter and I can't see an end in sight.

Tentative signs of something a little more seasonal from mid month, I'm not buying the big Greenland high showing on the 06z but it does look like we'll see more PM/AM thrown into the mix which if anything will bring some drier brighter slots in between the current deluge. Now fingers crossed and don't tell everyone but we could even see some wintry precipitation for many areas, but sshh keep it a secret.

I get the feeling that Coehn's updates are as manic as some posts in here so whilst I would never dismiss them I would also not have much faith in them.

Another truly awful day of cloud and rains, it's now 16 days since I last saw sunshine. Roll on the next ice age.

So in a goldilocks sort of way the next update will be just right.

Around here the sun has rarely shone for the last month with the exception of last weekends AM air it's been a depressing wet, windy and grey affair.

There is an element in truth regarding this though Ian, granted not in the sense Madden implies but if you cast you mind back to the early 80s when the AMO was in its negative phase this resulted in NW airflows that were cooler than now, more so with the one in January 84.

Surely you're not implying we would all pay homage to our new lord and saviour if such an outcome cropped up.

Intersting times and kudos to the GFS for smelling the coffee first if it does indeed verify. I still wouldn't be surprised if we end up with any block nearer to us than being modelled which would still result in surface cold.