Hocus Pocus

It may well be an outlier but at the end of the day it’s as much chance as verifying as any other model output, unless of course you’re in possession of a time machine that is.?

I think we maybe missing the biggest culprit of them all, the sun and it’s overall net effect on our climate.

Indeed. No model output should be discounted just because it’s a lone wolf, nothing is ever set in stone in the world of meteorology.

Some wet snow here leaving a slushy deposit on rooftops, cars etc.

Yes, the huge amount of scatter highlights how much ENSO has been poorly modelled throughout the year, this is why I’m not buying into just how strong Nina becomes. Anyway enough on this matter what will be will be. ?

ENSO has been poorly modelled fthroughout this year so any such predictions should be taken with a large dose of salt. Most of the climo models appear to be factoring in a moderate Nina hence the less than spectacular long range forecasts

You can get exceptions with 95/96 being one of them, that was a moderate Nina winter.

They’ve hardly covered themselves with glory over the years though, I’m not suggesting that they are wrong now but all long range modelling is pretty poor really.

Just goes to show anything past the 7-10 day timeframe should come with a government health warning. On a positive note a blocking feature towards our N/NW is still the form horse but where it sets up is still undecided and for how long looks even more indecisive.

The times keep moving forward if I'm not mistaken. I think I'm going to give this one up as a bad job the radar suggest nothing much happening for my neck of the woods. Still at least the South saw some snow.

I heard there was supposed to be some wintry weather for today, can someone confirm this please.

It makes for depressing reading having to wade through pages of waffle about increased snow prospects in the Home Counties etc, etc. Best to keep a check on this thread and get a more balanced view on matters at hand here.

I see the southern contingent have collected all their toys and put them back in their prams now an easterly is being modelled. Let's hope if doesn't go mammories up.

Looking at all the parameters I think my locale could miss out on all the action over the next few days. It appears South of a line from Manchester will be in the firing line and the further North in the region away from coastal strips could remain predominantly dry. As ever it's a case of wait and see.

Could be a busy night for the Mental Health Crisis Team if we see a downward spiral after today's 06z.

As much as I would like to see a potential cold spell being modelled in the output I'm also a realsist and I have to agree with you on this knocker that some posters seem to let their prejudices cloud their judgement, or so it seems.

Sorry off topic mods but wholly appropriate for the mass hysteria that's broken out.

A rather chilly but benign outlook really, nothing of note to wet the appetite if its snow you're looking for.

Stunning pictures Ravelin.

I think the only notable weather over the next 10+ days will be who gets clear skies and frosts and those who don't. A fairly nondescript period of weather coming up with all eyes on mid December onwards for anything of note weather wise to comment on, still it beats last years dire weather for sure.

They've actually had a some good winters up there despite being mild and wet in England.

Yes, it doesn't give us much confidence for mid December despite these favourable NH patterns and whose to say any energy exiting the States etc, won't throw a further spanner in the works. Still the next few days should be relatively cool/cold with some overnight frosts for those who can avoid the plates of cloud.

I just don't see any cold spell per se visting these shores anytime soon regardless of the favourable NH pattern. If it can go wrong it will go wrong for this little part of the world. Heights are far to robust to our south and the stubborn Siberian high has hindered rather than helped us. Until we see changes in these two areas then fleeting cold snaps via either surface conditions or a quick bite of the cherry is all we can hope for. The question is how long before these alleged favourable NH synoptics break down to something more traditional?

As it stands the MetO are not looking at anything particularly severe in terms of cold so whilst compared to recent years it will be most welcoming I think expectations of bitter cold and deep snow should be best kept to the realms of fantasy for now, that's not to say we should stop dreaming of course.

Still far too much volatility in the model output with wild swings from one set up to another, for me I think the majority of the U!K will see heights located close by to the UK with any precipitation mainly towards the South of the country. Nothing overly exciting is getting my juices flowing just yet but we are talking post ten days anyway.