Hocus Pocus

You're a rascal knocker.

It's a shocker that's why with one low after another barrelling into the UK. I don't care what the teleconnections or GLOSEA5 says, but until we see a lowering of heights over Europe things won't change.

The highlighted red zone.

Moderate snow here with a covering albeit it ever so slight. Looking good IMBY for the next few hours amd makes a change watching those in the South of the region nick all our snow.

MetO app showing heavy snow for a couple of hours this evening, thereafter light snow around these parts. We shall see as it looks a rather messy affair and the mild boundary could easily move further inland or stay further out to sea.

I was out on the fells today at a height of just over 500m and even with a temp of around 0.4c it struggled to snow, with a mixture of graupel and wet snow in any showers.

^^^^^^ Great post by SM explaining the strength and weaknesses of each individual model and what a great learning curve for many of us watching this week and next unfold.

I think the best thing we can do regardless if one believes in all of the above is to implement alternatives to fossil fuels ASAP.

Having had the misfortune of trawling through the mod thread one thing instantly struck me ( well two things actually but the latter is more about people's personalities, some which appear disturbing ), how is it when a milder outcome is shown at +144 it's treated as a given despite the complexities in forecasting beyond the 7-10 day range. Now what makes this more fascinating from a psychologist's point of view anyway, is why some find it in themselves to take as gospel that such an outcome will be right and more so with such a messy set up that can still go either way. All I'll say is that these irrational prima donnas who get worked up on whether it will snow in their backyard next week really need to immerse themselves in something worthwhile in life.

I think my spellchecker just had a senior moment.

I'm keeping feet firmly planted on terra nova until we breach the +48 mark, I've seen too many cold is in the bank charts melt away to nothing. However seen as this thread is to discuss fantasy snowfall etc, etc, I'll say ( if the models verify ) that IMBY has a good chance of seeing some appreciable falls of snow from next Tuesday onwards. That's my little ecstatic ramp out of the way now back to being realistic.

Quite right, it's been an abysmal few months around here so the hunt for snow plays second fiddle to dry, clear weather with some frosts thrown in for good measure.

Indeed knocker.

Sober reading Ian and up to now the GLOSEA5 has been rock steady in its outlook since Autumn so I'll be inclined to go along with that for the forseeable, or until it picks up a new signal.

Some unnecessary petty arguing going on over in the MOD thread over posting charts that show an Atlantic dominated spell. Poor IDO is only posting what is being shown by the GEFS, granted its at odds with the UKMO and to a lesser extent the ECM but it's model thread for goodness sake and all output should be discussed sensibly.

Now we are taking it to extremes.

Quite right Ed.

Very poor outlook for IMBY swapping warm rain for cold rain but the net result being more flooding. I feel we'll end up with a cut off lobe of the PV anchored firmly to Greenland through the remainder of this winter, the pattern now looks reminiscent to last year more or less.

Have you considered updating your CV and firing it off to the MetO.

Tend to agree with you mushy, the problem lies when people hang onto every run without looking at the bigger picture. For sure the UK may well miss out this time but the overall picture of a southerly tracking jet into Europe remains the same. For any newcomers to the site it's best to read posts from seasoned campaigners both in the so called mild and cold camp and those who just post what the models actually show.

Forgive me for stating the obvious but how as the GFS got this nailed in line with the MetO update. Doesn't the MetO follow what the models are showing and not the other way around, some silly comments amongst the excellent analysis. Right now we've got the ECM and UKMO vs the GFS, nothing has been resolved at this stage when you've got such a complex set up.

As much as I would like snowfest 18z to be correct I just can't help but think there's far too much chaos in the model output at the moment and being a veteran of watching these implode at short notice I'll keep my feet planted firmly on terra nova. Great model watching but best we don't get to carried away for now and look at the NH profile rather than our tiny patch in the water to see if WAA continues to be transported Polewards.

All hail the 06z our new found saviour.

Thanks ( I think ) knocker, one positive thing to take forward it can't go on and on.