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Hocus Pocus

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  1. Hocus Pocus
    A quick,question from a novice like me. Could such an event not have the same impact as the one in 2009/10 ( I think it was back then ) when a SSW reversed an already established cold NH pattern for our part of the world?
  2. Hocus Pocus
    Indeed, the law of averages at least dictates that. In the meantime what we don't want to see is some of these promising charts always being stuck at day 10 and never making it into the t-144 range. One thing which does worry me is having the block in the wrong place and we end up with west based NAO. I think I need to up my dosage of happy pills
  3. Hocus Pocus
    Hi Ian Thanks for your response . I hope you don't think for one minute I was having a go at you as you've probably forgotten more then I'll ever come to understand. I just think as BFTP alluded to further up that no one signal drives the other and it's more like a jigsaw with each tiny piece playing its part in the overall picture. The fact that your early thoughts have been amended kind of shows this to the the case, though as of yet your overall forecast may well still be proven right. Either way good luck and keep posting.
  4. Hocus Pocus
    Off topic I know but where's knocker? I miss his posts even if he's a mildie at heart he does give some much needed balance amongst those of us just looking for cold.
  5. Hocus Pocus
    Well I suppose we've made some progress as you were ruling out a cold winter month period up until now Ian. This forecast of yours has had more revisions than Englands attempt at finding a winning formula prior to any big tournament.
  6. Hocus Pocus
    Well the 18z has certainly brought back a smile to my face, though the volatility of the models will no doubt throw a completely opposite solution tomorrow. Such is life being a winter weather watcher.
  7. Hocus Pocus
    Is it being over progressive though as the 18z sometimes can be. I think Ian's update shows just how volatile the models are at the moment but still it's a bit of a choker considering how upbeat they were for cold just a week ago towards the latter end of the month. I suppose a week is a long time in weather.
  8. Hocus Pocus
    Though the models don't look great for entrenched cold nor do they look good/bad (depending on your viewpoint ) for anything other than average with the odd mild day thrown in. Still no sign of anything organised towards Greenland and as long as that remains in situ then I'll keep the GP's appointment for anti-depressants on hold for now.
  9. Hocus Pocus
    Something the seasonal models wouldn't be able to pick up as such then BA and still be right on paper?
  10. Hocus Pocus
    Even though the EC seasonal look very good on paper is there still a chance we could end up with a west based -NAO?
  11. Hocus Pocus
    He's probably forgotten more than you'll ever come to understand though, and please leave that awful politicalised subject out of here thank you. With regards to the EC seasonal does that imply heights over Scandinavia retrogressing towards Greenland before the PV ramps up a notch and dislodges heights over our side of the pole as the winter progresses?
  12. Hocus Pocus
    There's one thing I've learnt from years of studying model output and that is no matter how progressive etc, etc a model run is never discount it as unlikely to happen,, more so when it's a projection that hasn't happened yet. So until it actually verifies or not, then it's just another solution that may or may not happen.
  13. Hocus Pocus
    Don't get me wrong I'm not having a dig at you Ian and you're quite right it says it on the tin " preliminary ", but the facts are you were very descriptive in how you felt it was likely to play out and I'm merely suggesting ( not that I'm some sort of weather guru or expert ) that October is far too early for such in depth details.
  14. Hocus Pocus
    Surely the problem Ian is issuing a forecast in October when all the relevant players have yet to show their hand?
  15. Hocus Pocus
    Fascinating stuff readiing how the pros are looking at this going forward and the insight into the inner workings of the MetO. Sorry just realised I'm off topic.
  16. Hocus Pocus
    Any weather or climate story in the media should be filed under fables for much of the time.
  17. Hocus Pocus
    Nail on head BA, which is fine per se until the projected changes in the season take a different path to the norm. To be fair Ian's track record during the winter months with the short samples at hand has been very good but we're looking at a different NH profile at this point in the junction so all bets are off until the main players at the table show their hand over the next few weeks I would say.
  18. Hocus Pocus
    Indeed, it's not about the here and now or early November but the bigger overall picture. The NH profile is a sight to behold and as long as that stays very much in situ then our chances for the months ahead remain higher than normal, for a cold pattern to develop that is.
  19. Hocus Pocus
    You do know you shouldn't tease the customers like that Ian..
  20. Hocus Pocus
    That for me is what's been driving the last few years winters weather here allowing for a very cold set up over the eastern seaboard of the states which in turn has fuelled the jet to race across the Atlantic one after another. Will this year break the trend?
  21. Hocus Pocus
    There lies the problem with climate science, too many self proclaimed experts with little knowledge in meteorology let alone climate, both past and present. The whole debate is so polarised its become a playground for the mentally challenged with the same old, same old pushed forward as some kind of evidence for being right without even bothering to acknowledge the others point of view whether it's backed up with science or not. Ps This s isn't directed at your good self by the way.
  22. Hocus Pocus
    What a surreal thread.
  23. Hocus Pocus
    My hopes are for a winter akin to 1947 and 63 combined. Sadly my thoughts are slightly different and on the lines of watered down version of 2010/11 with a colder than average December proceeding a milder than average January, February.
  24. Hocus Pocus
    We've hardly seen much in the way of rain this side of the Pennines for the last month and looking at the MetO 16-30 forecasts they are expecting the dryish theme to continue for the majority Ian.
  25. Hocus Pocus
    All the model output I've seen is suggestive of the dryish theme to continue into the first week of November?
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