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Hocus Pocus

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Everything posted by Hocus Pocus

  1. Hocus Pocus
    So we have conflicting signals with one department suggesting a colder than average November/December and the other saying business as usual.
  2. Hocus Pocus
    The EC seasonal and GLOSEA5 are seeing something at this stage of the Autumn Ian, now granted its early days and a lot can happen from now until winter but for the MetO chief forecaster to be quite bullish about the prospects of October through to December must mean they're seeing something of importance?
  3. Hocus Pocus
    It's an excellent long range forecasting tool, not infallible yes but it will be interesting to see how it fares this coming winter now it's showing a colder start to the winter.
  4. Hocus Pocus
    I wonder if our ancestors were saying the very same thing during the MWP and RWP Ian. I'm not convinced we're seeing anything out of the ordinary in terms of climatology but like you I long for a return for a more seasonal Autumn/Winters,.
  5. Hocus Pocus
    Great stuff Nouska , thank you.
  6. Hocus Pocus
    It appears the spring barrier of forecasting has once again proven it's not wise to make calls until we've reached Summer. Does anyone have any past strong Nino to Niña charts which compare to the present, I know 98 went from a record Nino to a very strong Niña but I can't find anything similar to what's showing now?
  7. Hocus Pocus
    I agree anyone whose prepared to put their head on the block and make a public LRF deserves credit and when it goes the way of the pear they deserve respect for actually holding their hand up and explaining why they think they got it wrong. Nothing ventured nothing gained.
  8. Hocus Pocus
    So we should give the likes of Ed, GP and every other LRF the same treatment then?
  9. Hocus Pocus
    Ha ha Ed, yes I may have jumped the gun with my accolades towards Ian's forecasts.
  10. Hocus Pocus
    Indeed it doesn't but it doesn't make him worse either. His forecasts are better than any other LRF out there at this moment in time due to him being right, after all that's what a forecast should be judged on not whether it waxes lyrical about future cold that never materialises.
  11. Hocus Pocus
    Err, because he's the only forecaster with a 100% record over the last few years since he started posting. Just because he's not forecasting jam tomorrow cold doesn't mean he's rubbish. As for his forecasts being like an Express headline well can you direct me to on e with such precise terminology and reasoning please.
  12. Hocus Pocus
    As it stands it's looking likely to effect those in the south of the region with many north of Merseyside missing out.
  13. Hocus Pocus
    Bookmarked for future reference.
  14. Hocus Pocus
    I hope that wasn't a dig at my posts.
  15. Hocus Pocus
    Lol, you could well be right and let's hope the same applies for the coming summer.
  16. Hocus Pocus
    It matters not that Ian's forecasts was late this winter and he did explain why. The simple fact is that his forecasts are superior to anyone else's out there from what I've seen, by superior I mean the end result and thats what a forecasts should be judged on after all.
  17. Hocus Pocus
    To be fair it wasn't even in the same ballpark Nick, that's no besmirch on Ed &Tony they made a forecasts and it was wrong which they freely admit. It's lessons learnt from mistakes that count and I'm sure they both have and will come back all the better for it.
  18. Hocus Pocus
    Indeed he has been and if any potential businesses are looking for a reliable LRF then they should be banging Ian's door down and offering him a contract What really stands a out is the fabled SSW which was touted by many individuals/organisations to occur either mid January or February, the exception being Ian who gave his reason as to why he didn't expect one. The rest is history and from here on there's only one chaps forecasts I'll be taking on board in future.
  19. Hocus Pocus
    Regardless we've still no way of calculating just what percentage is what, however before this descends into the usual boring climate wars debate I think the anthropogenic effect accounts for at least half of the last 150 years of warming. The interesting bit is what happens next with the next Solar Cycle and what effects this has.
  20. Hocus Pocus
    II'm referring to just what amount of warming is anthropogenic, no one really knows knocker it could all of the 0.8c rise over 150 years or a fraction of that.
  21. Hocus Pocus
    Another fascinating read Ian and I for one am sold on your methodology despite being very sceptical in the beginning.
  22. Hocus Pocus
    Fascinating stuff Ian, one point worth mentioning regarding our warming trend and that is what if the majority of this warming is natural. Of course we've no way of measuring just what percentage is anthropogenic and what is natural so would this not be needed to take into consideration on shorter timescales?
  23. Hocus Pocus
    I can't disagree with that assessment, yes it turn colder perhaps from mid month for a short while but as things stand there will be no significant cold spell this winter, now March and April may well be another matter.
  24. Hocus Pocus
    Looking at the MetO thoughts for the rest of this month and into March your LRF is almost identical Ian, add the proceeding months of your forecasts and you've scored another amazing coup with your efforts. Well done again Ian and more so if February pans out the way the MetO are suggesting, any early thoughts for next winter.
  25. Hocus Pocus
    I may well not be the best at reading the model output but all I see is a mobile westerly setup alternating from a TM/PM airflow across the UK. All bog standard UK weather to my eyes with little sign of any cold spell on the horizon.
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