Hocus Pocus

Oh I've watched that before and read all the dummies guide to SSW, but this dummy still struggles with all the jargon despite me studying meteorology for the best part of 35 years.

Wash your mouth out with soap mentioning that year that shall remain oblivious forever.

Indeed you have despite some mocking overtones from certain quarters, it's certainly going to keep our man from the MetO on his toes during the next couple of weeks and maybe this is what the GLOSEA5 model is showing that Ian alluded to earlier in the day, or shall I say tentative signs.

Very interesting update though I must confess I struggle at times with the chicken and egg scenario of the SSW and all the jargon involved, however despite my own shortcomings I thoroughly enjoy reading all the titbits and info on what may happen down the line.

Thanks Ken, an very interesting read.

Im wondering if that would be down to any heights nearby only being the surface cold variety, that is if we indeed see any heights nearby.

Thanks for the replies guys.

I hope you both don't take my comments in anyway as criticism, far from it I'm curious in your methodologies and what you both look in compiling your forecasts.

It wasn't just the Atlantic I was looking at, the NW Pacific is also a lot different to back then and I would've thought this would have a big effect on events downstream?

Thanks for the explanation Chion and yes it would be foolish, but do you not also think that the starting point of this super Nino and others are different beast with the cold anomaly in the North Atlantic and the set up in the North West Pacific?

One question regarding this excellent presented forecast and that is, is this not just a forecast based on ENSO probabilities such as a cold January followed by a warm February. I know each Nino events are never two of the same but this forecast bears a striking resemblance to the 97/98 super Nino bar the severe clod expected in January. This isn't anyway a meant as a sleight on the excellent summary just a question out of curiosity?

Looks very nice if that was to verify, chilly settled and hopefully sunny would be right up my street. We don't need -10 uppers and heavy snow just some frosty days and nights will suffice after the miserable damp and grey weather we've had to endure.

Charcter building I would call it, though with our all year round vile climate this Character is looking to emigrate whilst he still can.

Add to that its not the most reliable site for forecasts either. For me the next 10 days look a complicated picture with a number of scenarios on the table all with an equal chance of verifying.

Mine was in jest PM, life's too short to get wound up over the weather and peoples preferences.

As per MetO updates. The fact is though this possible upcoming cold snap is already more amplified than previously modelled a few days ago so whose to say the next one down the line doesn't pave the way for a more longer lasting cold spell.

Oh I won't be getting carried away as we've all seen just what can happen when it goes mammaries up.

Does anyone else think the NH profile has a distinctly November 1978 look about it.

I don't know where I should post this but I felt here was more appropriate, if not please remove mods. A great post in the MOD thread last night by Lorenzo and explains well the dynamics involved going forward this winter. What catches my eye is how the strat doesn't seem to be playing ball with what one would expect given the state of play, are we seeing other background signals coming into play and over riding the very strong Nino pattern. I really think all bets are off for any given pattern for the start of this winter regardless of the EC and GLOSEA5 seasonal predictions, for me something is upsetting the apple cart and that something is something that's not been accounted for by the seasonal models. Of course I could be completely wrong ( wouldn't be the first time ) and we end up with a +NAO for the first half of winter as per the proceeding models predictions, whatever the outcome it's fascinating watching how this will evolve and for mere mortals like myself you can't beat watching and learning as it all unfolds.

judging by the mobile westerly set up I'd say 24-48 hrs before the next pulse of TM air takes hold.

Wise words CH but inbetween the trolls and the half glass is empty types winter quickly becomes tiresome on here unless you learn to ignore those posters.

Unfortunately Ian you'd have noticed over the years the number of members who are reactionary to every model output and take little on board when told then above year in year out.

What a great post and a reminder to all that the pros don't let preferences and wishes get in the way of professional analysis. Now would you mind donning your snowman outfit on and performing a snow dance for us all as the ouput is rather uninspiring from a coldies perspective.

They've only got red crayons.

What I don't get is how can you forecast a SSW a couple of months ahead, or am I misinterpreting the word sudden?