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Hocus Pocus

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  1. Hocus Pocus
    I’m not so sure Karyo as I feel it’s being overestimated, we haven’t warmed a great deal during the last 150 years and we still can’t pin down just how much of that warming is down to CO2.. Anyway this is way off topic and hopefully at the very worst we’ll actually get some colder winters thrown into the mix, hopefully.?
  2. Hocus Pocus
    The warmer sea temps in the Atlantic are down to the AMO being in its positive phase, this is due to switch around 2020 so hopefully we’ll see a return to seeing the Atlantic in a similar position as it was during the 50-80s.
  3. Hocus Pocus
    Another projected snow event bites the dust, nothing but sleet/rain in the early hours despite the warnings of heavy snow from around 01:00am.
  4. Hocus Pocus
    Absolute rubbish really regardless of ones view on whether man can influence climate by that much. We endured warming durning the Middle Ages and during Roman Times, so saying that our climate is altered permanently is poppycock really. Climate is never Linear. Sorry for the rant, its been a long day.
  5. Hocus Pocus
    Reports of 2cm of lying snow around parts of Leeds which begs the question just what wind direction actually brings us snow.
  6. Hocus Pocus
    Well the MOD thread continues with its “if it’s not an Easterly we’re not interested” commmets for next week. Personally I’d take next week over any Easterly that just brings dry but cold and grey conditions around these parts. Could be some big surprises next week for many in the NW, it’s a similar set up to Jan 84 though back then the Atlantic was much colder with the AMO in its negative phase. Still I feel many will see falling snow at some point next week, lying snow is a different matter though but transitory falls almost anywhere wouldn’t surprise me.
  7. Hocus Pocus
    Well around here Ian’s forecast for December was a big bust no matter how you dress it up. I’m a firm believer in that the only correct LRF is one after the event but with one third of winter gone it’s 0-1.
  8. Hocus Pocus
    Not the best of updates if you’re looking for anything cold, bog standard UK winter fayre going of that and the 16-30day update.
  9. Hocus Pocus
    I have to reluctantly disagree with you on this as mild without Sun is like cold without snow. ?
  10. Hocus Pocus
    The mind boggles John if some feel that cold & snowy weather is the only thing in life worth looking forward to cometh the winter.
  11. Hocus Pocus
    Aye, until you’ve ventured onto the Cairngorm Plateau on a wild mid January day then you’ve no idea what cold and snow is.?
  12. Hocus Pocus
    Sixth consecutive day of mist and drizzle, how anyone can love this mild gunk is beyond me.
  13. Hocus Pocus
    My tuppence worth (not that it’s worth much ) is the models continue to struggle with the upstream pattern post Xmas offering a variety of solutions within the ensembles. One only has to look at the MetO updates to see the wide range of scatter on offer so it’s no good following every single run as if your life depended on it, just sit back, watch with interest and try to spot these upstream signals without the emotive outbursts on each and every run. Back to the sidelines for me.
  14. Hocus Pocus
    Absolute zilch here, the search for snow continues.
  15. Hocus Pocus
    Still nowt. ?
  16. Hocus Pocus
    Heights towards the NE and a trough to the SE
  17. Hocus Pocus
    Don’t forget about me. ?
  18. Hocus Pocus
    Nothing here and not expecting anything else. ??
  19. Hocus Pocus
    Indeed, though with a much flatter pattern being touted in FI let’s hope we don’t see a return to said conditions for any lengthy period of time, if at all for this winter. ?
  20. Hocus Pocus
    Despite some disputing your analysis a few days ago, you ended up more or less right with the track of the low.
  21. Hocus Pocus
    Buy them a couple of sledges....... On second thoughts. ?
  22. Hocus Pocus
    It’s looking like the southward correction has taken much of the hope away with it, there’s still time for further slight adjustments northwards so for those in the south of the region I wouldn’t give up all hope just yet. Whatever happens it’s been a fun ride and hopefully all of us will reap the rewards next time around.
  23. Hocus Pocus
    Looks a bust already Ian unless we see a dramatic switch within the model output then the stormy mild spell will be put on hold for another month.
  24. Hocus Pocus
    You feel my pain too.
  25. Hocus Pocus
    MetO App showing heavy snow between 16:00 - 18:00, the reality will be nothing of the sort as the Radar is showing any precipitation to be well South of here. All in all a pretty disappointing day which started well but ended up a bit of a slushy mess. As for tomorrow.......... ????
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