CLH the red dragon

Hopecasting? I have no idea why. This is a life threatening storm.

Lots of wetness in prosect this week. I suspect that Wales will fare ok. There will be heavy stuff. But, IMO, the main focus will be the SW, South and SE of England. Things are going to get pretty bad indeed there. THere will be a lot of politics played out. THe truth is that this is weather. 248 year event. Plain as.

Absolutely. Yet they keep being posted as being signs of the apocalypse in the model thread. They are merely indicative of the potential.

Just on this subject, accumulated precipitation. Go back a week and it looked like being 100mm+ for my area. It's been anything but. In fact, even today, we've had very very little indeed. River level has barely moved.

The storm is incoming. It's rain bearing to the extent that there are loads of showers. But its not a monsoon. We've been phenomenally lucky this winter in Pencoed. To the North and West of us there have been huge amounts.

It's difficult to overstate just how bad tomorrow looks. I'd say non essential travel should be avoided.

No-one will be doing that crossing!

it's a bit of a scandal but, what's really been missed is, what's it for? Anyone can sign up for flood alerts, check the EA river level data, weather forecast etc. The real scandal is that people need a helpline to tell them what to do.

Personally, I feel that the systems take a line from Port Talbot to Gloucerstershire, heavy to the West of it, lighter to the East of it. Not to say we don't get loads now and again but, so far, we've got away with it to an extent.

The rainfall this winter has been very interesting in terms of how much and how much was modelled. Today the GFS claims 100+ mm of rain by me at +192. But, take today, barely anything. The weekend, barely anything. One hopes that it overdoes rainfall, at least in non mountainous areas. It's interesting just seeing how a river spikes then falls if there's a sniff of "dry weather." This is my river. http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/riverlevels/120756.aspx?stationId=4095 A mere 10cm above where it was in the summer drought. It definitely peaks. Was up to about 1.2m last Friday afternoon, but quickly drops. It's been great today seeing almost entirely dry roads.......until now.

Yeah, it's showery here but very nice otherwise, feels spring like. Was pretty stressed at the possibility of 100+mm accumulated over the next 7 days. I know the charts always overplay. Seems better today.

Models look much better this week. Accumulated precipitation down by about 50%. Of course. That's still over 50mm in 7 days or so.....

Today is interesting weather. Don't mind the short sharp shock treatment. Week is a washout BUT the 06Z has accumulation totals somewhat less. Could be good news.

Accumulated totals appears slightly less on the 06Z GFS. Fingers crossed...........

We had some. Tiny tiny amount, it settled on car roofs and on the black rubber matting in the park opposite. So, this week. Apocalyptic. But signs of a change. Let's hope that next Friday's low is out in FI and that the pattern change is around then. I think we can just about take the monster lows of the week but Friday might be just too far.

Personally, I fancy the poor people of Somerset being able to leave their homes.

Hopefully there will be small fallings of snow. Because the alternative is moderate amounts of rain exacerbating the surface water issues.

The residents of the SW and Wales simply want dry. Be that mild or cold. Just dry. No-one who is blighted by the misery of flooding cares about the form it takes. If it has to be a Bartlett and raging high pressure with double digits then we'll take Spring.

Let's just be done with it. The model thread seems to alternate between the hunt for snow and wanting to be a spectator on ever deepening, life threatening low pressure systems.It seems, for some, that the suffering of those whose homes have been underwater for months is a mere blip on their search for watching insane weather. By our very nature, we love weather of all types, and we can't change what happens with any emotion we express. But I find the hope of seeing yet more rain, yet more violent winds, yet more potential misery, miserable.

Blue skies here, sun's out. Barely a breath of wind. Of course, an hour ago..........

Today's weather seems to fit within the warning quite well but not within the forecast or, neccesarily, the models. Even here in Cardiff it's hardly possible to call it anything other than light rain. My river level has barely moved.

You'd imagine right!

March.

Agreed. We suffered, or almost, very badly just before Christmas 2012. Our local river (Pencoed) went up to almost 1.6 metres practically overnight. I moved all the stuff in the garage off the floor and was prepared to move the ground floor stuff in the house. We got away with it, any more rain and we would have flooded. This year the gauge has never topped 1 metre and even today is still running at 0.6 being well within it's normal range. It was still 0.45 even during the dry summer spell. It's VERY wet around but we are coping. The rainfall does seem to be increasing over the heads of the valleys. And, eventually, it has to drain out somewhere.

Nothing's changed. Urban myth. There are too many systems in play to say that we get what America, Canada or any other nation have. Well, to be fair we tend to get Ireland's weather........