CLH the red dragon

They're looking at it at the moment and are likely to upgrade to orange this afternoon.

Just a hunch but I reckon that the event is probably more marginal than last week. But, if it does snow, will be less marginal in terms of stick around ability. If you follow

Remember there's a cold front behind it. And it's catching up that bit quicker than expected

Snowing moderately well in Pencoed. Just done 1 1/2 hours on the MTB. It is definitely NOT getting milder.

Nicely heavy(ish) now. I'd say the road will be gone in 10-15 minutes or so. Not bad.

I was wondering if it were the North/South M4 split. I'm south, just about

Yes they are.

Which is what I said

That's been downgraded constantly since yesterday, temps were going to be about 6-7 on Saturday rising to 10 on Monday. As you can see Saturday is still cold and Monday is just mildER rather than particularly mild. I'd wager we'll stil be seeing maxes of 4 come Sunday/Monday.

As I said above, both the UKMO and GEM have Wales under -10's. Which certainly is.

850's are looking good though, -10's on both the UKMO and GEM models.

They're 100-150 miles out in terms of yesterday's models. Perhaps less going by today's. In terms of global forecasting that's still all to play for. That's certainly a good point though, I remember how hard that was supposed to be. Snow was gone within days. I don't think that pressure cell was quite as large mind.

Yep, remarkeable dew points at the moment. And the air is wonderful.

Have faith. 0z had it about Reading, 6z has it almost at Bristol. So we need the 12z to have it at the Bridge and the 18z to have it at Cardiff.

It's all about miles. We have a planet that is massive, and this weekend we're looking for differences of what, about 100 miles? It's there to play for. Interesting times. Even the temp differences are marked. Could be 2 degrees (and a continuance) in Cardiff and 8 in Pembs.

It's all about the miles. TEITS (in the model thread) is saying, think West. And that's right. Pattern shift west on each, say, 06z and we're in with a shout.

Absolutely, this is one of those days where you DON'T want the snow to arrive. Best wait till 4-5 o clock. Dark and cold. Fingers crossed.

Yes, interesting isn't it. Met shows "rainfall" on the radar, but there's nothing. Certainly no "heavy rain" here at the moment. Looks like it's damp in Carmarthen and the west.

Can someone explain why the massive dryness for Wales on Sunday has disappeared to be replaced by a monsoon?

So, expecting a day of "heavy rain," did 45 miles on the bike early doors. Settled down 3 ish expecting it to tip down. So far, a few minor spots, nowt much on the radar for the next few hours then clear after with no sign of any frontal stuff at all.

He doesn't.

And, if you fancy a giggle, this is an excerpt from NGN's attempt to vary the judgment yesterday: (all public and unrestricted): "Mr Spearman raises the alternative argument, verging on the bathetic, that The Sun should at least be allowed to tell the Claimant's wife what it knows, or thinks it knows. This is a difficult one to follow. NGN is a media group legitimately interested in making profits from communicating to the world at large. It surely does not aspire to the role of social worker or "relationship counsellor". Its Article 10 rights are hardly engaged by this subsidiary argument at all. It was faintly suggested, therefore, that it should be allowed to pass on the story to the Claimant's wife in the furtherance or protection of her Article 8 right to family life. The Claimant regards this as so much humbug. The point of Article 8 is that it is not supposed to be any of NGN's business." How awesome that they care.

As usual, and such is the case on other sites, members continue to blur their right to do what they think they can do (they can't) with the fact that it causes issues for the site owner (who does publish what a member says). So, if you have any respect for the site owner, shut up. To clear up a few issues, for those unable to ascertain what has actually happened, rather than reading the Daily Mail. 1. The judgment in CTB v (1) Imogen Thomas and (2) Newscorp is NOT subject to an injunction in itself. It is available on the Court Service website. There is no breach of any injunction in stating this OR reporting the content of it. 2. This is NOT a superinjunction. It's an anonymised one. Therefore the identity of the Claimant cannot be reported. Neithter can anything not in the judgment. 3. It is an injunction which is based on existing law. The backgroud law is the conflict between Art 8 and Art 10 of the ECHR as given force by the Human Rights Act. 4. Does anyone not see the irony in an adulterer hiding behind the law (parliamentary privilege) to "out" an adulterer hiding behind the law? This is the judgment for anyone who would like to be just that little better informed. http://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/QB/2011/1326.html

From a purely selfish point of view, dry please Friday and Saturday. Have to cycle 100 miles Tenby to Cardiff on Friday, then back again on Saturday. Last year it was 8 degrees. We deserve two nice days. From a purely selfish point of view, dry please Friday and Saturday. Have to cycle 100 miles Tenby to Cardiff on Friday, then back again on Saturday. Last year it was 8 degrees. We deserve two nice days.

Don't know if this is the right place to ask but: How much will this winter help future modelling in terms of valuable data?