Banbury

Haven't posted on here for a while as I'm over on the other side (TWO) , what a mad week of model watching it has been , I can't quite remember one like it . We started off with a GH only to be dumped , wrist slashing , WIO posts etc and it seems to have turned around in the last 36 hours or so with UKMO 144 looking great , obviously it has to verify but one thing is it will be a cold week, some harsh frosts in places even Snow around. ECM looks cold under the HP at the end with the possibility of linking to another HP to the NE, of course it could spin around again this evening , after the woeful December we have had the lower temps will be very welcome.

Hmmmmm indeed , latest update from A Deakin on the Beeb website mentions the chill throughout next week with temps down to - double digits ( at night )also mentions some Tuesday snow, charts weren't a million miles off yours Frosty

Fax charts for Sat / Sun have troughs running down the UK, be very surprised if it stayed dry

Really?? surely a trend is when something starts to re-appear?? on the previuos runs a block was shown...................just one run

Cheers Blue I probably have rose tinted specs on lol, thought it was all looking good for many ?

Kink in the Isobars show a disturbance running down the UK, plenty of cold air around for the ppn to be snow, I'd have thought

Is that based on the current ECM run?? if so a very very early judgement

I don't think GEFS has been updated yet .

The 120 looks excellent but N Ridge saying dry inland over the weekend ?? Puzzled a bit

That was yesterdays

I'm certainly not sure about using the word 'widely',

The control finishes with a cold Easterly

To show an even argument you should also post ECM and GFS to even things out

where is that ??

Of course you are assuming GFS is the correct forecasting model??

Me too, very optimistic , hope the longevity is correct, slim chance I feel though

With thicknesses for 500-1000hPa at c. 523dam in a few places it may be cold enough for snow.

Very marginal, wintry showers rather than snow proper I'd have thought

The control again looks to the NE

His first winter forecast for us was or has been a mile out

Thank you

Link doesn't work for me, it says page not found

From the control

Of course assuming GFS Operational is correct

I think the control shows nicely what can/could happen, plenty to play for