Why are people taking the Ops as gospel, look at the ENS an you will see it is very much on the mild side. So how do you come to the conclusion it will be bang on the money????
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121918/gfsnh-0-120.png?18
Virtually identical , not really sure how we can judge its doomed from this point onwards ????
Another mild outlier on the way from the 12z ECMWF - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif … - what arrives after this period could be very interesting.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^From Matt Hugo, at the time of his Tweet Im not sure the ENS were out^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I'm wondering if his comment is more in hope ??
Just been notified NCEP is having major problems and data is being delayed by up to 2 hours at the moment. This will impact GFS/GFSP and GEFS.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ From Brian on TWO