inghams85
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Everything posted by inghams85
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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Absolutely insane snow amounts on this run I'd imagine with shortwave forming in situ over the British isles. If it's snow you want how can you not be happy with this?! ? -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There is sharpening evident already on the ICON. One thing we need to keep an eye on us any upgrades in the nearer time frame from Sunday because I dont think this period is even done yet. Could still be upgraded 96-120 in my opinion -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Potentially this could be extremely snowy. Showers. Then lows from the East. Then Showers again and then sliders/North Easterly showers. Easy right? -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In December 2010 with the Easterly it was around 48-54 hours away before models like the Euro4 picked up a signal for 15-30cm's. Don't even bother I'd say tomorrow evening have Euro4 on refresh to pick anything up from Friday onwards even if it's flurries Friday Saturday for now -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There are a surprising amount that bring in deep cold mid Sunday tbh!! I wouldn't rule out quicker incoming cold at all -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The cold never really leaves the North! Because the direction is South Easterly late on even with moderate uppers that will all be as snow and a low pressure heading North incredible! -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The trend this evening so far is to push everything further north and West again. I wonder if the models have under estimated this because there's definitely momentum to build the cold in much quicker again! -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
??? class -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There is already embedded cold and DP' s well below freezing the air temp would be neaer 0-1! Snow and temps arent black and white -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We had an incredible Easterly back then in Yorkshire what were the 850's and thicknesses anyone? Just for comparison of convection? For 2010 i mean.... -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What on earth at that range could produce them temperatures at that range? Anyone? At 300+ hours what sort of crazy reload is that.... -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Where that shortwave East of Iceland come from? ????hmmmmm -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I've not actually looked i will now! -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agreed! A reload from the North East! Would be incredible! It's normally a half way house but how often is the half way house the perfect scenario. Were in such a strong position -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What chart over the last few days including the retrogression would people suggest is the perfect half way house? Yesterdays 18zgfs? -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That's the best 72hour chart of the winter bar none so far! -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mate you live in South East London were looking for nationwide cold and snow and the GFS and UKMO are better for this. What's good for you isn't for everyone else -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agreed i believe you'll see the happier posts from out South East contingent it's not great for all the UK -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is a good run for the South East but for those further north pressure is too high. Time obviously for snow though once the cold air gets in -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not the best 96hour chart we don't want it to follow the ICON. Is the ICON the trend setter now again -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GFS looks like a downgrade in regards to the build of heights into Svalbard. What is going on? -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Trough disruption evident from the PV to the West as well this early..... -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm aware of how that works. The winds have already propagated down and models are making adjustments every day to show this hence the backing back of the PV to our West with every run! -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Energy can not go over the top when westerlies are decelerating from the SSW. You have to second guess the charts in this scenario and 120 is case in point. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
inghams85 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This in my opinion will only edge more West this pattern as well by tomorrow's 12z. This will snowball into a very interesting period now we have agreement on the short wave