BarometerCat

GFS ensembles trending cooler, better than yesterday IMO in line with pressure increasing a bit too So cool and dry later in the month... This all IMBY too. I'll take a colder, dry Christmas...no rain. No unseasonable mild temps please!

Suns out! Nice start to the week...even if more rain is probably on the way for my area. Hoping we get that cool down approaching Christmas, a cold even frosty Christmas period would be enough!

ECM and GFS 240 - going to be interesting watching this evolve into more reliable timeframes. At least we are looking at a change in pattern, this coming week looks like a repeat of last week ECM at 240 GFS at 240

And the mood is back up on the mod forum! (Yay!) it’s buzzing and exactly the reasons the majority of us come here. Looking more and more that something colder is on the cards for Christmas. Could be a really good watching period coming up. Keep believing!

Around the 24th, interesting. In FI for now, but I’m watching, oh yes, watching

12z rolling out, and the question I have is will it rain into next week...any guesses on the answer?

Yup! I guess we all have different levels of knowledge and interest. You do not need to be an 'expert' to take an interest or comment on models or even be 100% accurate. Far from the point. The last thing any posters, new and experienced need is negative trolling or condescending comments. For me over winter, I am looking for 'what ifs' and 'could be' rather than the 'it never will', glass half full FWIW, I am really interested in the period post 22nd December, will it turn colder? Is interesting to watch and will be great if stays consistent nearer the time!

Bickering, back biting and trolling in the main mod thread (again). No wonder the mood plummets on there from time to time. Nothing wrong with ramping mild or cold etc... that’s what this thread is for!

Just shows, it isn’t exactly mild right now. Still just rain IMBY. Cold though.

Rain again here but guessing this is it for now, looking like some interesting times ahead later in the month though. Obviously all that can change

Great to see the models picking up that cool down near Christmas, that’s makes this time of year plus model watching enjoyable. Caution is as always still out in FI, could change yes of course etc...And it will not be our only chance necessarily! December is not looking to be a ‘mild’ month IMO but guess that depends on interpretation of ‘mild’ and the IMBY factor. Still no sign of horror show plumes or endless SW winds? Lots to be positive about

And to sort of back my rantings up, this mornings GFS 6z throws out more favorable options that have not yet happened but that are just as easily happen as to not happen but depends if something else happens first that has not happened yet... yes that! The mod forum does need to look at the what ifs and maybes in FI, it's what makes it so entertaining and in some cases addictive! Even if everyone KNOWS they won't verify. Enjoy!

How can this winter have failed to deliver on the front loaded predictions when it hasn’t happened yet? Loads of reaction to things that have been modelled or guessed at in some cases. Why not wait it things have happened, you cannot change the path of weather by getting angry with it, the models don’t control it either. Neither do some posters... also front loaded v back loaded predictions??? Are these pointless? Never really known one to be entirely right!

Oh, looks like all is forgiven and winter is back (according to GFS 12z and gin)

wow 12c! Big differences from last week. It's 8c here in East mids and the most mild it has been for days. The temps are going to vary wildly nationally so definitely does depend on location

Winter is done! Over. I cannot keep up. Will it back on again next week?

Help me out here, I am not seeing spring like temperatures coming up? Not in models or forecasts, where are these showing? All I can see is this same pattern more or less repeating in the near term. Not really interested past +144 at the moment.

at this rate the hunt for cold will just become the hunt for dry. Or the hunt for 'a bit colder' or 'something different' In the future, Christmas scenes on cards will replace snow with Mud or festive puddles...

Is that an example of the GFS 'overdoing' it a bit? I recall seeing something like this before in FI years ago

To my untrained eye it looks very 'as is' up to 144, after then does it not get messy and not reliable? Would you say no real change next week? Not massively mild either.

Morning, this from a total amateur - my tuppence worth.. This just a week away on GFS on 0Z On 18Z 18z was Milder in the SW, not so on the 0Z. So, going by the GFS on it's own and with my really limited knowledge - Not really mild, not really cold, possibly unsettled and a bit drab? No sign of any massive change if I was going to bet, post 144 seems unpredictable and guess that's where the experienced come in. Still could see some unexpected changes but could go either way. At the moment though...cold and wet...PE weather for those who hated PE.. ECM and UKMO tell a different story, I'll leave that with others to comment on!

Winter and the current focus Christmas weather will not be decided by one or two runs. 144 suggested as FI, that seems sane

From the ever reliable (HA! ) GFS ensembles (for my location) Not really shorts or sandals weather, although you do see people out like that in single digit temps these days... fair play to them

Not as cold as it has been here. Now overcast with the obligatory drizzle. Welcome to the East Midlands Winter wonderland...

But did anyone say where? Australia is in with a chance..