BarometerCat
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Posts posted by BarometerCat
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No flip flops but lots of towels it seems.
Awaiting GFS and all that to roll on out!
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4 hours ago, Echobase 2.0 said:
Keep the faith until this little guy says otherwise, I've been watching him closely and he's way more reliable than any model right now!
SS - Best model ever!
2c Here earlier. Dull day, Not 'mild' right now either.
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10 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
I have thought all along that this is going down to the wire. (Ie lamppost watching on Boxing Day for here in the West Mids).
People claiming that it is all over are simply just model reactors/followers.
I have seen models flip inside 24 hrs in this type of scenario. - Probably 50% of the time.
We will see.
From what happens after Xmas, I guess that they are picking up (possibly over-reacting) to some new longer range signal.
(which will produce a new bout of amplification), but will it start to happen this soon?
Still not over yet, is my opinion.
MIA
Yes, we still have a lot of model runs before anything actually happens weather wise
Also, just because a more mild solution is trending or appearing does not equally mean that is 100% correct or the done deal just yet. Keen to see how things evolve on the big models later today, then tomorrow, then the next day etc.. Not over yet!
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Following same time frame - 25th...
0z Yesterday (left) and today.
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The 6z will be super interesting this morning, after the overnight big changes I am wondering where things go from here. The 0z is not it...things should evolve on from there. Another change or more of the same???
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GFS 12z brings the cold air south sooner again...
er ok..
This is a useless chart of course but still....
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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Cold in the north. Milder in the south. Significant weather with snow at times near the boundary in the middle. I wonder which region may be most prone to that
The region with 'Mid' in it? (even maybe East...)
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1 hour ago, weirpig said:
Yep the south and anywhere near the coast is shocking for snow. Midlands is probably one of the best. Could be third year running we get snow just after Christmas
channelling the positivity in here! I think it is difficult wading through forecast/opinion on the mod thread where a lot of IMBYism takes over. I think you are spot on re the Midlands, we have seen snow in recent years where people have foretold it was not going to happen etc..
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wow, lots of bullish claims to know almost what exactly will or won't happen over the Christmas period etc..
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No matter what the models are showing for Christmas Day and Boxing day, I think shorter range models will provide most clues of whether or not anyone will see snow. Probs even down to radar and looking out the window.
Colder air is close and moves southwards on Christmas day, that trend remains so far. It's not a bad place to be compared to what we could be seeing..
The mod thread is as contrary as always...fun times indeed.
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colder air further south sooner on 6z GFS thus far
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Posted this on Sunday from the GFS - based around the 25th
And this mornings 0z run -same time frame
Still showing that North/South divide of cold air - moving South on later frames
posted Sunday -(look at 528 line)
oz run today
This is only part of the overall story but an easier reference for those Amateur (like me).. cold air is close and moving across the country. Anything possible but really is going to a radar watch and a look at conditions on the day, or in the case the 25th which I don't mind admitting to being focused on!
PS - really enjoy following this forum and at this time of year is always brilliant. Thanks all who contribute and for those with expert level knowledge for taking time to post!
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Cold air in the North t120 on 6z GFS. May move South across central Uk.
Still time to go for changes (better/worse or whatever floats your boat)
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Its one run...that's all.
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25th -proper colder air might be 'too far North' etc.. Look how close we are to something more interesting with just a few tweaks and adjustments. Better position than a lot of recent years and still plenty of runs to happen yet. This is good! Nothing to write off! This is all over simplified, I am not an expert etc..
6Z GFS for 25th
528 thickness - close
North South Boundary, cold air still far North
compare again tomorrow?
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cold out to New years via 18z GFS so far.. certainly worth following at the moment..
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Just now, Dancerwithwings said:
I’ll have a bit of that GFS pub run
Looking good on Boxing day
It's a way out yet but the signs are there!
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Feels cold today, overcast and what I consider typical winter weather IMBY wise. Looking forward to next week, maybe colder yet and models possibly hinting at something of interest for those in the Midlands of a cold persuasion.
ECM 0z and latest GFS interesting still despite roller coaster of mod thread. Feeling positive!
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23 hours ago, B-C said:
6z GFS bringing 528 line across the Uk on 25th
Not saying this will verify but will be great to see if models continue to trend around the same ballpark as we close in on late December. Really looking interesting over next few days!
GFS 6Z -same time frame.
Interesting watching this evolve as we get close to the time. As an amateur I am following other more experienced peeps advice and comparing outputs for roughly the same time frame. Far from being resolved but looking good still-
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5 hours ago, MisfitDog3 said:
The track of the Low is interesting. If it were to go just south of the UK into France I was pondering if it would actually draw cold air down on the north/north east side of it?
On the 18z too (I think...) - something to watch?
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GFS 12z moves away from 6z...who knew?
6z
12z
Where did that low come from to the south?
Compare with ECM then 18z later maybe? Still a way off... more runs surely? Not done and nothing has happened yet..
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3 minutes ago, Wingman Blue said:
On the face of it, another dry, dull day.
But the daily high has been progressively dropping as the week’s wore on. 12•C Sunday, 8.5•C today.
If it continues at the same rate, by Xmas Eve it’ll be a high of 3.5C.
Snow 28th December anyone?
Trending down to Christmas Eve, colder before than maybe too.
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6z GFS bringing 528 line across the Uk on 25th
Not saying this will verify but will be great to see if models continue to trend around the same ballpark as we close in on late December. Really looking interesting over next few days!
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On 16/12/2021 at 17:37, jvenge said:
Then nice for those who like that kind of thing But considering 85% of the posts in the main output thread, I don't think this can be called a ramp.
I'm not entirely serious but I also think if you posted something like that chart (unreliable as they are) in the main thread I would also expect 85% replies explaining how this is not going to happen...
I'm going with it anyway, no harm in hoping we see some snow around the 24/25th... odds always seem stacked against us!
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
GFS 12z 25th midday
Cold air not far away, nothing drastic. Slight changes early on from this morning. compare again with 18z later and then the dreaded hangover 0z tomorrow...