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Fourty Point Three Degrees

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Everything posted by Fourty Point Three Degrees

  1. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    Don't worry the CFS already knows its a year ending in 8 Not a single sign of the Azores high all summer.
  2. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    Any reason for skipping 1997 ?
  3. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    its been a poor spring so far and poor springs can churn out decent summers. 1983 for one, 1995 and 1997 aswell. But long range modelling is keen on a poor summer this year again similar to last year with June being the best month.
  4. Fourty Point Three Degrees
  5. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    I do wish people would stop referring to standard early springtime weather as "mild" like as if its still mid-Winter. We have now passed the coldest three months of the year so its bound to start feeling slightly warmer at some point afterwards. If it feels "mild" then thats just average for spring time. Normal average temperatures in March would be considered mild had it been December.
  6. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    Fantastic seeing these charts actually in range instead of in the joke range. Echos of Feb 1991
  7. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    I think we going to have a pattern similar to Jan/Feb 2006 where HP is splat bang right over UK sending any LP systems tracking towards Iceland and then Norway. Interestingly we are at about the same level in the solar cycle as we were back then.
  8. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    I'll avoid the model thread. These days its a hopecasters and straw clutchers thread with far too much credence and attention getting paid to beyond T240.
  9. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    I wonder if the recent SSW will help boost chances of some favourable blocking for summer?
  10. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    As always the GFS is in the extended 'guess-work' range. It'll be just another wasted hike up the garden path.
  11. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    You wont get much cold out of any blocking in March as the sun will be too strong .
  12. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    Not pointless just GFS and ECM base their outputs on totally different variables
  13. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    Nice to see 12z is finally moving in the right direction with the SSW and is onto setting up that jackpot blocking. We need the perfect upgrades from now onwards.
  14. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    Cant see any sign of a Scandi block developing on GFS12 or ECM 12 op.
  15. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    I'm not a fan of Spring or Autumn and as far as I'm concerned they shouldn't be seasons. To me they are just transition periods between the two main seasons Winter and Summer, a bit like leaving a cold room to go into a warm room. Weatherwise I'm hoping it would be cold and snowy in March then dry and sunny warm later on. A bonus player this Spring is La Nina is heading towards ENSO neutral which increases the chance of dryer and warmer weather.
  16. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    I don't think spring is in any dash to get here at the moment. SSW and easterlies are on the cards for now.
  17. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    **Keeps the cold Atlantic air from moving in
  18. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    But still long enough for widespread snow and below zero temps and ice days. Its middle of Feb not middle of April.
  19. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    Next weeks cold spell is melting away rapidly has to be said. Also nothing really cold in the ECM ensembles but nothing really mild either so no sign of any prolonged cold spell on the horizon just yet. The Scandi high continues to develop and keeps the cold air from moving in.
  20. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    Not sure how this week is being described as the "coldest so far this winter"? Were we not down to -10 on 11/12/13 December last year?
  21. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    GFS ens has cold conditions right out until mid Feb: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49987&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw
  22. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    People will never learn how to take 10 day long range GFS/ECM outputs with caution and how to not treat them like its 100% gods honest gospel.
  23. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    Did someone say Beasterly? I see there is some good support in the offering for a decent freeze in Feb, just wondered what actually is being offered? Are we looking at anything like Feb 1991? Or Feb 2009?
  24. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    Whats so bad about the current sypnotics? If they are telling you winter is over then what part are you looking at?
  25. Fourty Point Three Degrees
    That is just silly very silly to write off the rest of season at this point in high winter just because models don't see any sign of prolonged cold on the horizon. Go and look at the model charts from Jan/Feb 1991
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