mb018538
-
Posts
7,447 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
11
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by mb018538
-
-
About as typical as you can get for the UK in an Atlantic driven pattern. 4-8 inches of rain over the hills and mountains of the NW and a flooding risk....gradually getting drier as you head further SE. Wonder when the 'We're still in drought' messages start appearing again?-
4
-
-
Those nice settled charts from earlier in the week are but a distant memory now....ex hurricane influence proving tough to model and has ended up with a more unsettled pattern dominating.
Your usual west/east split as is common in these kind of setups - western areas (hills especially) seeing a lot of rain, while eastern areas not seeing too much in the way of rainfall.
-
3
-
-
4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Not sure I agree with that, ECM 0z has high pressure building across the UK next week, that's the Atlantic losing.
I wrote that pre ecm - as you say it’s much more settled than the other models day 7-10, though a different pressure pattern to yesterday. Let’s keep an eye out
-
2
-
-
- Popular Post
Looks like the build of pressure that’s been shown the last couple of days is starting to disappear - models clearly underplaying the strength of the Atlantic. So perhaps no late September warm and settled spell after all….best of anything towards the SE corner.
-
11
-
- Popular Post
-
Models still keen on a build of pressure and perhaps another pulse of very warm/hot air in around 9-10 days time once the low pressure clears through.
September to go out like much of the month has been so far?-
7
-
-
We got a direct hit from a very intense developing cell around midnight here in Cambridge (pic above shows it nicely) ahead of the main band. Lots of booming thunder, torrential rain and lightning. Only storm we've seen this year, better late than never! -
After another stunner today, it probably brings to an end summer for this year and the best first half of September in history. It’s been warmer than every first half of august bar 8, and warmer than all but 5 first half of Julys since 1772. That’s how impressively hot it’s been. The records just keep on piling up.
-
4
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:
We’re in middle ground here in the Midlands - not too hot and not too cold.
I’ve noticed that sometimes the weather in the SE can be more common with the weather that parts of France get compared to the rest of the UK. Anywhere outside of the SE can sometimes be considerably cooler.
Though after a heatwave, it’s a relieve to get the fresher air sooner and not hold on to the warmth and humidity hanging over the near continent.
It is most of the time yeah. I find the one time of year we sometimes suffer is May and early June if easterlies set in over the cold North Sea. We had a few days in early June here stuck under clag when it was 12c, and about 23c out west in clear blue skies. Clearly though the majority of the time it’s drier, warmer and sunnier down here. Can’t have it all 365 days a year!
-
1
-
-
One of the reasons I couldn’t live up north. Too many days like this through the year. Still lovely and warm down here, depressingly cold up north. I’ll take all I can get.
-
3
-
1
-
-
32.5c the provisional high for today. Another scorcher.
-
3
-
2
-
-
-
2 hours ago, WheresTheSnow said:
Most of the cloud is high cloud though, not thick cloud that is going to really hold temps back. Just depends how much of it there is. ARPEGE has come down a little from the 34-35c that was showing a couple of days ago, but still has 32-33c tomorrow. ECM is similar and in a very similar zone.
-
1
-
-
I'm enjoying the late blast of heat for sure, seeing as we were denied anything decent for pretty much all of July and August this year.
Just a shame it's so late in the season, doesn't feel right hitting 32c and then it gets dark before 8pm. To me 32c is very much associated with high summer and it staying light beyond 9pm.-
2
-
-
Numerous locations reporting 30c now, so it's just a case of how high it'll end up. Not much cloud spoiling things at all across most areas, so perhaps we will see 33c somewhere with another 3 hours of heating to come.
-
Wouldn't want to be forecasting anything with 2 hurricanes churning away, one of which is one of the strongest on record in the Atlantic!
Back closer to home and the Met Office have issued a thunderstorm warning for Saturday. Could be a few lively cells around in the afternoon.
-
1
-
-
ECM 00z also has these storms, but concentrates them more in the west and north - allowing the E/SE corner to really heat up. 33c showing on here, which in rality could mean a degree or so higher. Looks like it's a bit of a knife edge situation.-
2
-
-
A complete change from the UKV, which now shows cloud, showers and storms breaking out on Sunday....with 30c just squeaking out around the Sheffield area.
No 33-34c here!-
1
-
-
ARPEGE is showing a wide area of 34-35c on Sunday.....which looks incredibly optimistic. I think something closer to 33c in one or two spots, but an area that wide seeing above 34c just isn't going to happen.-
2
-
-
Ticked over 30c here. Might see a 31c later, but I think the peak temps look reserved for the weekend where somewhere will probably see 33c.
-
UKV suggesting that the weekend will perhaps be the peak of the heat - but with 32c yesterday, it may be a close run thing. The predicted temps on Sunday look like a 33c may be possible somewhere from Cambs up towards the Wash.
ARPEGE takes it a notch further. 34c around Kent/Sussex on Saturday and 33c in similar spots on Sunday.
-
3
-
-
- Popular Post
UKV has 850 temps of 23c across the SE this afternoon - is this a record for September?3 hours ago, CreweCold said:The weather will break eventually, we’re in autumn now. It’d be more shocking to see this weather extend than break down.
Also he was just saying what the 0z shows. Perfectly permitted within this thread and no different to people describing the earlier runs that showed the heat holding.
This isn’t a heat ramping thread.
Isn't a heat ramping thread? I wonder if the reverse will hold true in about 3-4 months time.....nah, didn't think so.
High res out to Saturday has 32c in central southern England.
-
17
-
3
-
Better late than never I guess with the heat.....let's look at predicted maxima at the peak of the heat this week on UKV:
30c Tuesday, and then 32c on all of Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Very, very impressive for the first week of September.-
3
-
2
-
-
ECM shows 29-30c on Wednesday and Thursday next week - I can only assume that as it shows a lot of cloud this is holding temps down from what they potentially could be with 850s of 21-22c in the SE!
We've seen temperatures closer to the mid 30s (34.4 on 13th September 2016)...and the chart below for that day on face value doesn't look as good as what next week shows. Just goes to show that you never know what a certain set up can deliver.
-
3
-
Autumn 2023
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Been lovely here the last couple of days - 23c and sunny....looks like I'll miss the storm and rain here tomorrow (I'm devastated...) and have a very pleasant end to what's been an exceptional September.