[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

Glad I had 2 weeks away in beautiful Rhodes. Didn't check any weather models while away, just totally switched off from it all. Bliss. Come back home and had a look.....just a continuation of the absolute garbage that we've endured through July and August. What a dreadful last 2 months of summer. I don't like autumn but I'm actually looking forward to it this year just to take my mind away from looking for nice summery weather for another 8 months. Been desperate times over the last couple of months. Summer haters must have been in heaven for most of this year. 

[The poor summer haters club]

So glad I can ditch this rotten summer period on Sunday for 11 glorious days of sun in Greece. Can't come soon enough. This last few weeks has rivalled some of the very worst summers in parts of the country.

[Summer 2023 chat]

I'm under this convergence zone, and it's been teeming it down for the last 45 mins. Awful.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

GFS 6z with a Greenland high we'd be truly proud of.....if it were January. 1050mb in August is just laughable.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

So much for a surge in AAM shuffling the cards….literally done nothing at all. It’s just low after low piling in. Greece can’t come soon enough for me.

[Summer 2023 chat]

12 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

It's already done more or less, 2/3 decent weeks in June do not a good summer make. Bear in mind that came after an absolutely dire April and May here, in the SE anyway.

Even if we get a good September it won't salvage anything by this point 

I've tried to stay optimistic and truly believed that once the weather turned in early July that it wouldn't wreck the summer. The seasonals all looked settled and warm. I put trust in them. How very wrong I (and they) were.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

More absolute horror show charts for day 10....so glad I'm off to the med next weekend for 11 days to escape what is turning into a bad summer after such a wonderful June. No prospects of anything good in the next couple of weeks, and summer really is on countdown by then. Heading towards mid August, the nights are drawing back in rapidly, and we're looking towards autumn once more. Or more aptly, a continuation of the wind and rain we've had to endure through July.

[Summer 2023 chat]

When do we give up on summer 2023 then? Day after day of rubbish churned out, with still no prospect of anything remotely settled and summery on the horizon. First week of August now looks another write off, and that then only leaves 3 weeks of summer left.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

Good news.....the ECM 500mb plots have a positive anomaly over the UK!



Bad news....that chart is for 28th August - 4th September, and summer is over by then. 

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

What even is that? Just bore off.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

Gahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh when will it end!!  

[Summer 2023 chat]

7 minutes ago, SunSean said:

A day with lots of sunny spells which both the BBC and Met Office said would be overcast. Love it when they get a cloudy forecast wrong

Same here. Today has been dry, fairly warm and with a nice ending to the day.

16 minutes ago, Freeze said:

My parents returned from Rhodes a week ago after having their holiday moved forward a week for work reasons, talk about luck!

I’m flying out to Rhodes on the 6th August….nervously watching the terrible scenes unfolding. Thoughts with everyone affected.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

I’ve not posted for a few days as I’d kind of lost hope. Come back today to hope for a change of fortunes, and still nothing remotely hopeful in any of the output. How utterly depressing.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

 

Getting seriously cheesed off at seeing charts like this on repeat in the height of summer! Just hurry up and be gone already.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

 

Horrific ECM tonight!

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

 

Slow improvements on the 12z….

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

 

Small steps....but looking much more like it on the 6z in the latter stages. Models starting to respond to changes downstream? 

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

3 minutes ago, jamesthemonkeh said:

Usual caveats apply but quite a striking projection of accumulated rainfall totals from the ECM this morning.  That is washout territory!  Though very much depends on how this weekend's low pressure develops/tracks.

Beat me to it!



One of the most extreme rainfall charts for southern areas we've seen since winter. 50-100mm widely.

GFS below not nearly as extreme:



Suffice to say though, these low pressure systems next weekend and early the following week look like being real rain makers. Proper washout stuff.

[Summer 2023 chat]

We've managed to dodge the showers today and get a nice breezy 23c day out of it. Nothing to write home about, but pleasant enough!

[The changing daylight hours thread]

I reckon we've got about another month before it starts to feel autumnal in terms of light. Sunset back before 8:30pm. Seems to have gone in a flash as usual, the nice lighter months of April to July nearly gone for another year. Soon be back to commuting in darkness before I know it. Gahhhhhhhhhhhh 

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

2 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

With AAM on the rise from now until the beginning of August I would expect a positive response from around the 26th of July. It looks like AAM will plateau or fall again from August 1st so things may have actually started to turn unsettled again by mid August.

If you look at the charts provided by @MattH the current weather pattern correlates well with trajectory of the AAM.

Just have to wait and see though.

Indeed - this said image that @MattH posted in the model highlights thread. Shows July has been exposed to a falling and low AAM regime, which has helped promote troughing in our neck of the woods. As this now sharply starts to rise again, we should hopefully start to see this pattern move towards the very end of the month and into August. Trough dropping back into the Atlantic and a ridge ahead of it into western Europe again?

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

59 hours of sun here so far would suggest otherwise. I don't have the stats but I can't imagine 2007 or 2012 were much duller up to this point.

June 2012 only had 69 hours of sunshine in Derby, so worse in that aspect. It's certainly been worse up towards the NW, and not a whole lot better down here. Only up around 70 hours of sun here!

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Many of the best summers have two great months and one more average one. I think having a terrible month like this will tarnish this summer, regardless of what August produces.

They do - but as bad as this month has been, it's still 0.4c above average.

As rubbish as it's been, it's certainly not been anything like as bad as some horror summer months we've seen over the last 20 years.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

26 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

well .....




We "wrote off " July" several days ago as these consistent NOAA charts are a million miles away from allowing anything remotely warm. Theyd need a complete 180... As they are consistent, then we are a very long way off from anything seasonal.
Whether anything emerges in August is atm in the hands of the gods. Its good to see Matt H and Tamara re sticking to their guns and do expect an improvement. But for me - Summer is ruined... my lilies and assorted scented Summer flowers are in bloom NOW... and 2 weeks in June has been forgotten already...

Summer as a whole isn't ruined just yet....June amazing, July terrible....if August is good then summer would still go down as a very good summer. We never have three amazing months in a row anyway (or very rarely), so all to play for. Just sit and wait now!

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

Another day comes along, and another set of absolutely awful 00z runs comes with it. If anything they are getting worse. Low after low after low piling in. Ensembles trending down to end the month.